The first of what could be many claims has been filed for the death of one of the members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. On June 30, 19 firefighters on the crew died when they were overrun by flames on the fire near Yarnell, Arizona.
According to Azcentral, Marcia McKee, the mother of firefighter Grant McKee, filed the $36 million action.
Below is an excerpt from Azcentral:
The 16-page claim alleges officials “carelessly” allowed the hotshots to move into a chaparral-choked area where escape from the fire was impossible, that officials lost track of the hotshots and that officials failed to understand the “extreme peril” that confronted the hotshots.
The claim names 13 entities or individuals, including Gov. Jan Brewer, Arizona State Forester Scott Hunt, Prescott Wildland Division Chief Darrell Willis, who oversaw the crew, Prescott Mayor Marlin Kuykendall, the Yavapai County Board of Supervisors, and Department of Public Safety.
Mural to be unveiled
In another story related to the fire, on Saturday, November 16 a mural will be unveiled in Prescott memorializing the fallen Granite Mountain Hotshots and all first responders, from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. at Classic Gas, 1310 W. Iron Springs Road.
Blame is such a tricky concept when a catastrophe of this magnitude occurs. As stated by quite a few people, and rightly so, is that the lawsuit will “force” out the facts. It is fascinating how different kinds of catastrophes have similar small problems that keep building until very bad things happen. The Hot Shot fatalities don’t have just one facet or person to blame. Faulty equipment? Poor decision making? Lack of following standard protocols? A perfect parallel to this calamity is the flight of Air France 447. To explain it simply, freezing up of a speed sensor led to a cascade of events in which the pilots overly reacted and stalled the aircraft killing everyone onboard. The final report called the actions of the pilots “inappropriate” and they did not follow the usual steps to solve what really was a survivable situation. The Hot Shots were put into a situation they shouldn’t have been in. But that in itself did not kill them. They could have stayed in the black or bolted down the other side of the mountains to stay safe. Unfortunately an “inappropriate” decision was made that took them out of the view of the fire, which has to be one of the biggest fire fighting no-no’s, and put them in a fatal position. I am obviously over-simplifying but it really baffles me why the Hot Shots were led down into that valley.
You and everybody else. Even setting aside the issue of violating the rules, what were they trying to do??? Almost no answer comes close to justifying the obvious risk they were taking.
Rileymon, I only used the FOIA as an example of the amount of help I received when I asked and was going thru the “proper” channels. I am sure, by now, whatever incriminating paperwork there once was is gone, done away with. That is sadly just how it works, I have learned the hard way. Doesn’t mean I will ever give up trying to get at the truth, but when it is in the best interest of the higher ups to make something to away, well, then, it goes away, doesn’t it.
But, on some level, that is ok. Deep down, I know, and I know they know the truth. And at the end of the day, I am not the one who has trouble looking in the mirror, or sleeping.
RILEYMON: come walk the uphill battle with me. not as easy as it would appear.
ELIZABETH N: please email me at lhamm@republicservices.com if you are serious.
Lynette, I had asked you on another thread: What do you claim was done wrong that led to your son’s death? For example, do you think that his teammates just left him there after he fell? Or what? Again, I am so sorry for your loss. It is tragic.
There will be no “truth” found out. There will be no blame assigned. That is how the “system” works. No blame, no shame, no fault.
Yes, as a parent you want someone to feel, someone to acknowledge something terrible happened, and your child died as a result. But trying to get answers, and looking for the “problems” to be fixed–won’t happen.
The “buck” doesn’t ever stop with anyone…just keeps rolling from desk to desk, with anyone and everyone saying “nope wasn’t me”.
“One of the beauty’s of the American legal system on lawsuits is a process called “Discovery”: both sides are legally mandated to “lay all of their cards on the table” for the other side and the Judge to see. No suprises, no hidden documents, no secret last-minute witnesses. Really?? Really??? When finally FINALLY received the FOIA documents from one of the offices my son was employed at, only about 2 statements on each page were not blacked out. And, when other pertinent documents were requested, which should have automatically been there, oops, told “couldn’t have them”. no reason given.
There is a significant difference between what is released under FOIA and what must be disclosed under “discovery” in a lawsuit. Redaction is almost non-existent in Discovery. Any legal beagles out there that can clarify the differences better, please join in …..!
Elizabeth, I for one am going to take your advice and back off of Willis. Thanks for joining in the discussion. Mr. Powers, As you have drilled into even my head…… FOLLOW THE RULES, ,and they will keep you safe. This incident only confirms your philosophy. Thanks
And hopefully the whole Wild land Fire Community will come to that point and reemphasize training and serious safety training in the 10 and 18.
Before I forget: When I spoke with an insider, he/she mentioned that “stories keep changing” from folks who were there the day of the tragic loss of the 19. The way he/she made the comment, it was *clear* to me that the comment was referring to deliberate changes in “stories” (witness recollections), as opposed to totally freaked-out witnesses who were legitimately getting confused about details due to the stress. Sad.
I know Region 3 of the Forest Service is working hard to come up with information for Fire Fighter training on the Yarnell Hill Fire. I know several Hot Shot Supt. and some Fire overhead had a walk thru and discussion at the fire site a couple of weeks ago. So their are things happening behind the scenes.
In terms of stories changing, I think that relates back to blame in an institutional sense. I agree that the technical matters relating to the accident itself should simply be viewed among other things in terms of the 10 and 18. But, if GM were in fact ordered down, for instance, that by this point raises huge issues that might include criminal liability, and appropriately so by this point. It’s impossible to back away from that issue.
Likewise, if a doctor makes a mistake in an operation, I think everyone understands that mistakes do happen. But, if you find out that the doctor fudged his paperwork to keep his professional certifications in place, and that the hospital was aware of this at the time, it makes the mistake get viewed in a different light. One of the teachable lessons from the Yarnell fire probably is that, when Eric Marsh was saying in the emails that Dougherty reported that he didn’t feel he could cert to GM’s status, that instead of pressuring him to do so, Prescott should have listened. That did not by itself cause the accident, but I’m not surprised to see that in accident of this nature that facts came out such as Prescott having danced around the cert issue. I assume the underlying problem there was simply money, and the desire to get the cert signed off on was also in large part likely money — the spread Prescott got from keeping GM out there was pretty big and the crew nearly paid for itself. But, whatever the motivation, there was a problem, and one that Prescott seems in no way to have owned up to. A lawsuit is probably a very clumsy way to address dancing around a cert, but again I don’t see the town itself or the state or others looking to address that through other means.
SR, I agree with you about the bigger underlying issue and using litigation as a last resort to get information (and address problems such as the cert. problem). Candidly, I am *horrified* that the SAIR did not address this issue. My point about “blame” was a more limited one: it does not help the fact-finding process to take a tenor of blame straight out of the box.
Again, I believe that people such as Eric Marsh’s wife and others could likely say more than they are saying. But, understandably, I cannot imagine they would want to speak if they expect that their now-deceased loved-ones will then be “blamed” unjustly (or obviously without the chance to defend themselves). Just my thoughts, and I could be totally wrong.
Several things:
1. Some workplace jobs *are* high-risk, such that you assume a risk when you accept one of those positions. However, assuming a reasonable risk is very different from assuming a crazy, irrational risk. I would consider sending men into a massive fire *without* an appropriate level of training and/or back-up support and effective communications to be an irrational risk. If Willis or whomever sent the now-deceased crew out KNOWING that the resources were NOT in place to support that crew safely, that is a big, big problem, in my mind. It means that those 19 men were exposed to FAR more risks than they realized and presumably agreed to assume.
Phrased differently: It would be fair to say that the deceased men presumably DID assume the *reasonable* risks inherent in fighting any fire (e.g. that the fire will unexpectedly blow), but presumably they did not intend to assume the IRRATIONAL and normally preventable risks (e.g. the risk that the powers-that-be will unexpectedly deny or withdraw a normal level of support for the Hotshots).
2. In a related vein, in terms of “assumed risks” that the Hotshots knowingly likely assumed: What continues to TICK me off (excuse the vernacular) is Willis saying or implying that Marsh/Steed left the safety of the black because they wanted to protect Helms’ ranch (or fight the fire). That statement suggests to me that the entire firefighting program in Yarnell was GROSSLY misled about the role of Hotshots.
As I understand it, the SINGLE goal of a hotshot team is to CONTAIN a fire. Period. CONTAIN the fire, if possible. Not FIGHT the fire in order to protect a structure. Hotshots do not have hoses and a water truck and other traditional “firefighting” equipment, such that they are not safely EQUIPPED to act as normal firefighters (e.g. non-hotshots). Therefore, suggesting that the Granite Mountain Hotshots somehow would have felt compelled to move down toward the Helms Ranch by way of the blind valley in order to try to protect the Helms’ property or FIGHT the fire is just … disturbing. They were not equipped for such, and they should have been crystal, crystal clear (via directive from the “higher-ups, presumably including Willis) that their job was NEVER to “fight” the fire or protect property.
As I understand it, the Hotshots were ONLY equipped to:
(a) cut lines in the geography/topography (to try to contain the fire), and
(b) remove or focus any materials available for the fire to consume, such that the fire would hopefully die when its fuel ran out.
3. APOLOGIES: Whomever suggested on this thread that a fire boss would be well-advised to support full disclosure (e.g. a COMPLETE, non-whitewashed investigation report) and an apology for any missteps was right on the money. According to the empirical research regarding litigation, settlements, and apologies (all topics on which I have published and done research) it is FAR cheaper (in terms of likely litigation and/or resulting settlements) to apologize, address what went wrong, and disclose detailed plans to do better in the future than to CIRCLE the wagons (and, perhaps, issue a whitewashed report). Speaking in generalities, many lawyers utterly fail to appreciate this point about the financial/economic value of disclosure and apologies.
4. Mother’s Lawsuit: My hope is that the mother who has filed the notice of claim – if she really wants the truth and full disclosure – emphasizes this point (about apologies and disclosure/honesty) in any litigation or settlement talks that are to follow. It is ENTIRELY possible to structure a legal settlement around further disclosure (about what went wrong with the Yarnell Hill Fire) and minimal monetary payments (e.g. $300,000 per plaintiff or some such). The mother is going to have to PUSH, however, to get that type of settlement. Generally, lawyers are often not well-educated about the inherent value (both economic and emotional/mental, for both parties and for the public) of this type of settlement.
5. “BLAME” – My personal (and professional) view is that we would be well-advised to think hard about whether it honestly makes sense to contemplate assigning blame to any of the dead men (e.g. Marsh, Stead). I am inclined to think that it does not make a lot of sense to talk about blaming any man who is deceased. They are not here to defend themselves, such that it can be grossly unfair to point the finger at them. And this type of finger-pointing can be both catastrophic and silencing for the spouses of such hotshots. I, personally, would *want* the families of Stead or Marsh to be open to speaking, down the road, and not being defensive or feeling “blamed,” such that they can share what they knew (firsthand) about the last minutes, perhaps from texts or phone calls.
In a related vein, with respect to Willis et al., if our goal is full disclosure and transparency – such that we can glean lessons from the Yarnell tragedy and try to take steps to improve things for the future, thereby making things SAFER for our next generation of Hotshots – then we MUST avoid playing the blame game, because doing so will likely make people (e.g. Willis) defensive. Defensive people are more likely to either (a) lie or (b) circle the wagons. The Yarnell Hill Fire deaths were tragedies – plain and simple. Nobody started the day of June 30th saying “Hey, let’s see if we can cause a bunch of men to die today.” NOBODY.
I am not saying that there should be no accountability or acceptance of responsibility. People *died* – of course there should be accountability wherever appropriate. What I am saying, however, is that one might want to tread carefully in terms of discussing or assigning “blame,” if one goal is to honor the memories of the fallen men by figuring out what *really* happened on Yarnell Hill and whether there is room for improvement in the future. (I am not saying anyone on this thread is inappropriately assigning blame, mind you. I am just raising the point that using the parlance of “blame” and discussing “blame” can lead to further whitewashing, stonewalling, or overt lack of candor.)
You have many good points. I do believe as in the past to identify to identify The 10 standard orders and 18 situations that shout watch out is not blame but an attempt to help show what went wrong with the decisions made that put the crew in the position they were in. This seems to be a continual problem of not following or considering these safety rules.
Totally agree with you, Mr. Powers. Thank you for continuing to share your experience and insight. People like me – who have no fire experience – really learn from your commenting and that of the other experienced folks who have been commenting.
Elizabeth, the reason for the GM crews movement and the responsibility of that action which caused the deaths of of an entire Hot Shot crew must be brought to the attention of all, especially other wildland firefighters. This tragedy is unprecedented in over 100 years of organized wildland fire suppression and in the honor of these young men we must learn from it and make sure it never occurs again. We have rules & guidelines, the 10 & 18, that must be adhered to with no exception. If individuals responsible for the welfare & safety of themselves or an entire crew are not held to a high standard of fire line safety we will continue to see these type of events every fire season. Also, the agencies given the charge with the protection of our natural resources & wildland fire suppression will do just what they are starting to do and say wildland fire fighting is too dangerous to engage in, so let it burn!! So that presents many more problems, public life & property threats, destruction of valuable watershed creating down stream flooding & pollution, loss of wildlife, fisheries, economic impact and much more. This brings attention to why the the fire was not suppressed when first reported when it was small and the crews had the offensive ability of suppression, just think about it, we would of not had 19 fatalities or be talking about “blame”. Now, wouldn’t that had that been a whole lot easier!
Just a comment on high-risk positions. Yes, firefighters risk being killed while fighting fire, just as police officers risk being shot on the job. That doesn’t mean that police officers should be asked to, for example, directly assault an entrenched rifle position where they have reason to believe they’ll be met with effective resistance, while at the same time there are no medical personal standing by and no ready means of evac. Structural firefighters aren’t expected to walk across warehouse roofs that already show multiple signs of being at risk of imminent collapse. In the military, officers who make monumentally dumb decisions do lose commands and even get court-martialed. Here, so far, there’s been no accountability. And, worse, so far an SAIR that was politically correct and has been used to try to argue that no mistakes were made. So, under things as they stand, resorting to the courts may be the only accountability available. A related point is the politically correct view that, well, all members of the crew voluntarily went together and all accepted the same risks. The reality is they were part of a hierarchical system and were led (and, it is possible, ordered?). For the families, there should be a right to have someone then take responsibility.
Mr Powers, Where does the buck stop then? Eric Marsh or Darrell Willis?
One of the beauty’s of the American legal system on lawsuits is a process called “Discovery”: both sides are legally mandated to “lay all of their cards on the table” for the other side and the Judge to see. No suprises, no hidden documents, no secret last-minute witnesses. The potential lawsuit(s) over the Granite Mountain fatalities will force everyone to provide all documents regarding this event, even if it damages their allegations and/or defense. Then, maybe we’ll all have a better idea of what really happened out there, as opposed to the SAIT Report findings?
Marsh and Steed The crew supervisors. Then up the ladder thru Willis and The City. To the State for not enforcing the day off rules. And not aggressively IA on the Fire, which they should have put out the first day.
Firefighter zero, your comments are very refreshing. I view life as a student and a father also. Accountability is not a bad word. I truly believe a little honesty would have went a long way The men and women who accept high risk positions throughout our country are very special. I was raised hearing that an apple doesn’t fall very far from its tree. The parents of Granite Mountain most definitely taught their children something right for them to regularly risk life and limb for society at large. These people deserve more than what the SAIR has to offer. And as far as ensuing lawsuits. Well at this point it seems the lack of accountability and total whitewash of any true understanding of this incident is going to cost the taxpayers of Arizona dearly. Maybe the lesson learned will be to “TELL THE TRUTH”
Well said Calvin they could have made a strong statement about following he 10 and 18. They pretty well explain what went wrong
I agree Mr. Powers. There are a lot of people in the wildland world who claim the 10 and 18 are not working and that using them to review accidents is silly hindsight. It would be impossible to know how many times the IRPG and the 10 and 18 kept people out of trouble. I took a class from a Helitack supervisor who knew the Hot Shot Supe of the team that turned down the assignment on the Steep Corner fire last year. He told me that the IRPG and the 10 and 18 were invaluable in determining that the assignment was unsafe. Talking with the Supe had convinced my instructor to carry his IRPG more and use the darn thing. The IRPG, LCES, and 10 and 18 work in my opinion.
When I started taking classes from the state and started moving into a supervisory role, my boss would go through the 10 and 18 and tell us that they had not figured out any new ways to kill people yet. That really stuck with me.
It all ties to gather and is basic training, when I retired it was 10 and 13 now18. The 10 standard Fire Fighting Orders have not changed since 1957. They have always been the bible or chapter 1 thru 10 Live by them and they will never fail you each relies on the others. My training statement to my crews every year before we went thru each and every one of them. I made them memorize them and site them back to me. It is not a game it’s life or death play by the rules always. I don’t think some people are doing that today. GM evidently didn’t.
I have no idea what Mrs. McKee is going through, but I have children and EVERYTHING scares me to death. I have read a lot of reports, South Canyon, Loop, Inaja, Rattlesnake, Mann Gulch, and what could be read of the Cramer fire. I tend to read these reports from the view point of a father and a crew member, as I am years away from being overhead. I tend to look for accountability and answers and rarely find any.
I am reminded of a municipal Fire Chief who took direct responsibility for the death of a citizen. He was not driving the engine that lost a section of LDH that balled up underneath the car of a man who then lost control and was killed, but he took responsibility. No one was sued. I realize my example is a isolated one, but the parents wanted answers and they got them.
All that I know is that family actions following the deaths at South Canyon, Thirty Mile, and Cramer did nothing to improve firefighter safety nor Agency accountability…. in fact, those actions took firefighter safety into the courts and into the mess of politics and uneducated public opinion.
If the problem of wildland firefighter safety is going to be fixed, it is going to come from leaders within the fire service.in a similar fashion and methodology as the 1957 REPORT TO THE CHIEF. It was a task force of fire management, fire control, and fire behavior experts commissioned with autonomy and openness to present the FACTS and RECOMMENDATIONS to prevent future tragedies.to the Chief AND the public.
There are lots of things that we could be doing to make wildland firefighting safer…. first and foremost is open and transparent Serious Accident Investigations that aren’t whitewashed to remove personal or Agency accountability.
IMHO
There are only two entities that should be held responsible, legally & financially for this tragedy. One is deceased but was trained & worked for the City of Prescott and the other is the State of Arizona Department of Forestry for not suppressing the fire the first day and its Keystone Cop response the second day. Lazy, unresponsive, uncaring, unaware of wildland fire potential in a super high hazard area. And that local volunteer FD, with it’s 70 year old members, should be disbanded and banished for doing nothing. Until these departments start aggressively initial attacking these fires and putting them out when they have the offensive ability of suppression we will see more tragedies like Yarnell.
I guess my opinion on matters like this is different.
We can all say that we’ve always adhered to the 10/18, but you know as well as I that this just isn’t true.
Personally, I’m just not a fan of litigation. I stopped doing fire when I got married. At that point, as much as I loved it, I couldn’t justify the potential risks to my family. Had I continued to work, however, I would have insured the heck out of myself, or made certain I was in a permanent position of some kind with a death benefit, in case I were lost on a fire. This family deserves 36 million dollars of tax-payer money because their son lost his life working in an extremely hazardous job? It’s tragic. I get that. I didn’t know any of the Granite Mountain folks, but it still rocked me to the core.
Our society has this idea that they should always be taken care of, instead of taking care of themselves. Even now, in a much safer job (I’m a science teacher), I make certain I’m doing what I need to do to carry health insurance for my family, as well as life insurance to help my family, should the unfortunate occur. I skimp on the budget where I can to ensure that we can pay our bills, and not expect the tax payers to bail us out.
I’m not saying that this isn’t a tragic, tragic thing when it happens, so please don’t get me wrong.
He was a seasonal employee he had no life insurance at his job. I believe the state passed something for insurance for the GM Hot Shots. I fought wild land fire for 33 years I never violated the 10 and 13 then. I was a Hot Shot Foreman, Eng. Foreman worked my way up to a fire boss II in southern California. My employees and crews that worked under me were always reminded of them by me at the beginning of each shift. The Yarnell hill fire is a mess and some one needs to be sued.
I feel for this mother. The oldest of my three children died suddenly and tragically back in 1994. He was twelve years-old. The coroner told me he did not suffer. The pain and trauma never goes away. The “if only” never goes away. I had two more children. Now I have a beautiful granddaughter.
Marcia McKee only had one child. 21 year-old Grant McKee suffered. I have a twenty-one year old daughter. If she ever died in such a way I don’t think I could ever be satisfied with any report. My heart goes out more than Marcia McKee will ever know.
That being said… I am praying for Darrel and Judy Willis to. They were my neighbors when my son died. I served with Judy on the P.T.O. Board. Darrel and Judy were there for my family as if we were their family. They are the kindest people you’ll ever meet and faithful to the end. In our area most people do not have extended family near by. Darrel and Judy stand in that gap for untold numbers of people. I believe they loved Grant McKee.
I pray that Marcia McKee will find mercy for Darrel and Judy and ultimately for herself but the road ahead is long and hard. For me I’m still on it . God have mercy.
I’m thinking my post was too emotional. It just matters to me for people “especially people that don’t live here” to understand that the Willis’ are also in mourning. .. and to know what kind of people they are.
When you sign up to work in any job such as fire, law enforcement, or the military, isn’t a large level of risk expected? Filing for millions of dollars against the local government is not going to bring your family member back, and will not keep fire from being fire.
I worked for 10 seasons as a squad boss and engine boss with the USFS, and our supervisors went out of their way to make our jobs as safe as they could be. Still, at times, a fire would do its thing, and set us back on our heels. At times, fire just gets crazy out of the blue, and you do what you can, while TRYING to adhere to the 10/18, which is not always possible in those situations.
You want to sue (like everyone else in our litigation-happy society)? Fine, but I hope you take whatever under the table settlement you receive, and put it all back into a charity that supports the families of fallen/injured wildland folks, such as The Wildland Firefighter Foundation.
Shame on you USFS. The families deserve what they can get they lost someone for the rest of their life. Oh and by the way adhering to the 10 and 18 is never impossible I did it for 33 years as many other wild land fire fighters have done. My mother made a settlement with the USFS in 1953 and received a monthly income for her, me and my sister. It wasn’t millions, she could have sued but didn’t. I know what losing a father for the rest of your life at 9 years old meant to me. Compensation for a loss of a life is not the wrong thing to do. And that’s my real name there how about yours? I can personally feel for each one of the family members I’ve been there.
If Ms. McKee truly wants answers (and I have to believe she does), there cannot be a settlement. There will have to be a trial. I suspect they threw out the $12 million knowing it cannot be agreed to. 19 X $12 million is a heckuva lot of money.
USA Today November 16: In a phone interview with The Arizona Republic, Marcia McKee said she filed the claim to learn the truth about what happened in the fire.
“There is no good answer right now,” McKee said. “Nobody should have to go through this. No family should have to go through this. But it’s the only way to get answers.”
I think this action will help the cause of finding the truth. I feel for this lady and hope that she is able to stay strong as she is going to experience a lot of hate filled comments. I cant imagine what she is going through, I really cant imagine loosing a child and being given this SAIR that explains nothing. Its time for some truth telling. I hope the National news channels will return to this historic event and understand that this was not just another day. 19 men died In an unprecedented way. WHY did this happen??
I’m an odd bird – I spent several years in fire and still have significant contacts there, but these days I am an erstwhile paralegal. It’s an interesting vantage point.
I read it – just fyi, it’s a Notice of Claim, not a lawsuit per se, at least not yet. In Arizona, “In order to file a civil lawsuit against a public entity or employee under state law, a proper claim must first be filed.” It’s ticky-tacky, but there is a difference.
“Pursuant to A.R.S. § 12-821.01, all civil lawsuits against any public entity or public employee must be brought within one year after the cause of action accrues and not afterward.” Therefore, it may be up to a year from now before an actual complaint is filed. It depends on how organized they are. And this action can, and probably will, drag on for at least a couple of years because of the complexity of claimants and the entities involved.
It doesn’t really matter – the floodgates are opening. It’ll be more interesting to see who *doesn’t* file/join the lawsuit. I can see this whole thing becoming very, very messy.
I read the PDF. A lot of emotion in there, and to me a lot of lashing out, rather than a rational legal document. It also seems a little sloppy to me, but that’s a nitpicky thing on my part. It’s not unusual to go whole hog in terms of throwing out all sorts of accusations in the Notice, because you as the plaintiff’s lawyer have to open all the doors (which is why you even include the governor as a defendant), and include the ‘have a right to add to this document’ jargon to cover everything that may come up. We’ll see the tone and content change in the actual Complaint, when that’s filed.
If this actually goes to trial – a great big if, since it’s very likely any successful claims/arbitration will be settled out of court – wouldn’t that be interesting? I wonder if Prescott, the county and the state would let it go there? Certainly it would be very instructive. We’ll just have to wait and see.