Revised National Fire Danger Rating System approaches rollout

In this video Dr. Matt Jolly talks about his current project — the first revision of the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System in 40 years.

After I ran across the video above which mentions the revision of the National Fire Danger Rating System, it made me wonder about the status of the project.

The system tracks weather events through their effects on live and dead fuels and adjusts them accordingly based on forecasted weather. The most visible product, which is used by most large land management agencies in the United States, is the predicted fire danger, often expressed as adjectives ranging from Low to Extreme. (The system used in Australia has those five categories plus one more — “catastrophic” or “code red”.)

The NFDRS was first released for general use in 1972 and was revised in 1978 and 1988. Work on another revision began in 2000 and was last scheduled for completion in 2017. Reportedly this latest version is much simpler and more automated than its predecessors and represents a vast improvement in fire potential assessment capabilities.

Jon Wallace, a member of the team revising the system, said that in tests last year they discovered a flaw in the Nelson model which had been in use for several years that needed to be corrected. And, rounding methods and decimal points in Firefamily Plus and WIMS did not match.

National Fire Danger Rating System 2016

The team feels that all of the hidden issues and bugs have been squashed and rollout plans are being finalized. The U.S. Forest Service has released their plan, and Mr. Wallace will present one to the National Wildfire Coordinating Group the week of January 22.

Videos of a DC-10 working a fire in New South Wales

DC-10 drops Masonite Road Fire

Above: A DC-10 drops on the Masonite Road Fire in New South Wales. Screengrab from video by Raymond Terrace Fire & Rescue.

Check out these videos of a DC-10 dropping on the Masonite Road Fire near the Newcastle Airport in New South Wales. The fire burned 2,300 hectares (5,683 acres). The airport was closed at times due to degraded visibility caused by the smoke.

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UPDATE January 20, 2018: I found another video, of the DC-10 working the Pilliga fire.

Move to Michigan to avoid natural disasters?

Disaster Map

Above: map by Alert Systems Group

This map shows the risks of four types of natural disasters across the 48 contiguous states — earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and tornados. It appears that the only state completely devoid of any of the four is Michigan, while portions of some states in the midwest and the central U.S. have little risk of these events.

Our readers will probably notice that at least a couple of categories of disasters are missing; notably wildfires and extreme winter weather. Plugging those in (after seeing the news Tuesday about snow on top of ice paralyzing areas in the south) that would leave …. what do you think? A few areas in New Mexico and Southwest Texas? But of course fires are not unheard of there.

Conair to convert six Q400s into multirole air tankers for France

Q400MR Bombardier
Bombardier Q400 dropping retardant. Bombardier photo.

The Conair Group has purchased six Q400 MR aircraft from Bombardier which it will convert into multirole air tankers for France’s Securite Civile (Department of Civil Defence and Emergency Preparedness). Fire Aviation first covered France’s decision to acquire six  Q400s in July, 2017, but now we have confirmation that Conair will purchase the aircraft, convert them into multirole air tankers, and then transfer them to Securite Civile.

The Q400 MR can carry up to 10,000 liters (2,600 gallons) of water or retardant. The “MR” stands for multirole,  meaning the aircraft can be converted in a few hours to carry 64 passengers.

In a medevac configuration it can accommodate six stretchers along with the necessary nurses stations and life support equipment, or it can transport 9 tons of cargo.

For several years Securite Civile has been pondering what to do about replacing their nine S-2’s that are approaching their structural life limit of 25,000 hours, according to the agency. Their plans announced in 2016 were to retire the S-2’s between 2018 and 2022 which would require a two-year extension of the type certificate. The goal was to acquire aircraft that could carry more water or retardant, would reduce operating costs, and would be multi-role.

France considered the CL-415 water-scooping amphibious tanker formerly made by Bombardier, but it is no longer in production with the program being sold to Viking Air Limited in 2016. Viking is considering manufacturing them again, but for now they are providing service and support for the CL-215’s and CL-415’s operating around the world.

Securite Civile has operated two Q-400 air tankers since 2005, so retiring the S-2’s and acquiring more Q-400’s will reduce the complexity of the maintenance and operation of their fleet.

In addition to the nine S-2’s and two Q-400’s, France also has eleven or twelve CL-415’s and 40 helicopters.

Here is the automatic translation of the text in the following tweet by the Minister of the Interior:

I was involved this summer, with the fires that have affected our country: I just signed the acquisition of 6 Multirole aircraft for civil security. ✅ We renew our fleet air for fire fighting & project forces and material.

If you do not see the photos in the tweet below, click HERE.

Bushfire in NSW threatened communities north of Newcastle

On Saturday January 13 a bushfire near Masonite Road threatened the communities of Tomago, Williamtown, and Raymond Terrace 17 Km north of Newcastle, New South Wales, Australia.

(If you don’t see the video below shot from an air attack aircraft, click HERE.)

The weather changed, bringing a little precipitation after it had burned 1,381 hectares (3,412 acre), slowing the spread. For a while the Newcastle airport was closed due to visibility reduced by smoke.

The fire was fought by 66 firefighters from the Rural Fire Service, Fire and Rescue, and the National Parks and Wildlife Service. They were assisted by helicopters and Air Tanker 912, a DC-10 that was recently renamed “Nancy Bird” in honor of an Australian aviatrix.