Today meteorologist Chip Redmond sent us another fire weather outlook, for August 10 through 15.
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Upper level ridging across the western US has returned, resulting in warming temperatures and much less thunderstorm activity. Most fire activity has been limited to portions of OR/WA where breezy westerly winds have became prevalent along the Columbia Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. Though these localized conditions are expected to wane, widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the region late weekend and continue through much of next week.
A slow moving upper level low will develop on the west coast of CA/OR by Sunday evening. As it progress towards the coast, upper level moisture will begin pushing northward across much of the western US. This increase in moisture aloft and subsequent instability, will contribute to the development of afternoon thunderstorms. Surface moisture will remain minimal however, providing the ideal ingredients for dry thunderstorms. With very dry, drought-stricken surface fuels, widespread fire starts are possible. Though no widespread winds are forecasted, gusty winds can be expected around any thunderstorm activity.
The nearly stationary upper-level low will make this a prolonged event, with thunderstorm activity through the entire period. Storms will become prevalent in OR/CA on Sunday, and expanding north into WA on Monday/Tuesday, and eastward into ID/MT on Tuesday and Wednesday. By mid-week, enough upper level moisture may advect northward into CA/OR/ID/WA for some wet thunderstorms, however, dry thunderstorms will still be possible across much of the region. As the low shifts eastward by late-week, a break in the activity is expected across portions of OR/CA. However, warm and dry weather is expected to continue.
Weather Highlights:
OR/northern CA/southern ID: Critical fire weather through Wednesday. Daily dry thunderstorms with hot and dry surface conditions expected. Isolated wet thunderstorms by Tues/Wed.
WA: Critical fire weather Monday through Wednesday. Very hot across central portions of the state and with critically low RH Sun through Tues. Dry thunderstorms likely Mon and Tues with a few wet thunderstorms Wed.
Northern ID/western MT: Critical fire weather Monday through Wednesday. Hot and dry Mon and Tues with scattered dry thunderstorms. Increased chances of wet thunderstorms with slightly cooler temperatures Wed.
Today we have another article from Incident Meteorologist Chip Redmond.
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2014 August fire weather
Typical fire season for August is focused greatly on the western US and Pacific NW. This time of year a summer upper level ridge is usually prevalent across the western US. This leads to hot and dry conditions reaching into Canada. However, monsoonal rains creep northward into much of the inter-mountain west from Mexico bringing a break to fire season in much of Colorado, Arizona, California, Utah and other nearby states. These monsoonal rains are the wet season for many, and besides the winter snows, are a large source of water.
Monthly Fire Occurrence Density in August. From Predictive Services (1999-2010 data).
In the recent weeks, we have seen quite a bit of large fire activity in Washington, Oregon, and California. For this time of the year, it is fairly typical to expect hot spots in these regions. However, the size and vigor of these fires has been greatly magnified with already a record fire season (Carlton Complex). The main driver of these impressive fires has been the significant drought impacting the western US, which has been developing over the previous years. Despite some recent rains in many areas, especially inter-mountain West (thanks to seasonal monsoonal moisture), much of it has fallen to the east of the greatest Exceptional Drought. This drought has substantial impacts on both short and long term vegetation and fuel conditions. It has made the region very susceptible to very large fires with extreme fire behavior.
Drought Monitor as of 7/29/14
The big question is, will these conditions continue? Long-term it appears that they will. This persistent pattern is showing signs of weakening short term, but after this weekend, forecast models hint at more prolonged ridging much like we have had the previous weeks. A very active Western Pacific typhoon season is somewhat to blame. As systems move north, and eventually northeast past Japan, they amplify the large upper level ridge assisting in the continued hot and dry weather for the western US. With numerous typhoons still across the western Pacific, it appears this may continue to occur. Long-term models also suggest continued below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures for the next 1-3 months for the W US. There is some suggestion of El Nino development this fall which could bring some much needed relief to portions of southern California. However, should it develop, it would also suggest warmer than normal conditions across regions of Washington and Oregon.
It appears that it likely be a very long, and dragged out fire season for many in WA, OR, and CA.
Today we are beginning what could be a recurring feature on Wildfire Today. Chip Redmond, a qualified Incident Meteorologist, has written a fire weather outlook for August 5 through 10. Tomorrow we will have his description of what is considered typical fire weather in the month of August, along with a general outlook for the rest of this month.
Here is a short bio for Chris, and below that is his forecast.
Chip Redmond has studied meteorology extensively, obtaining both a Bachelors and Masters degree in Atmospheric Science. His knowledge of weather was then combined with wildland fire in 2012 through a wildfire meteorology course, where he obtained a passion for the specialized niche. Since then, he has served as an IMET with the state of South Dakota, working on the fire line and with an incident management team. From these experiences, he believes that nothing is more beneficial than making a forecast, and subsequently watching your forecast either verify or completely blow while working on the fire line. Current endeavors have taken him to Kansas, where he works with the state climate office and state-wide weather station network. During this phase in his career, he remains thoroughly embedded in fire weather forecasting and hopes to combine these experiences in the future.
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August 5 – 10 Fire Weather Discussion
Extreme fire weather conditions have been somewhat hampered due to abundant moisture streaming northward across much of the western US. This has helped relieve some large fires that have developed, especially across CA/OR. Improving conditions are linked to the lack of dry thunderstorm activity, and increased moisture across the region. The large upper level ridge that has dominated the weather for the western US lately has been modified due to an impinging upper level low centered over California/Great Basin. This upper level low will slowly transition southward through the end of the week. Chances of wet thunderstorms will exit eastward across the Rockies and into the central Plains, with some lingering across northern CA into south ID into the weekend. With no upper level forcing, chances of thunderstorms will be restricted to terrain flows near high peaks, and no widespread lightning episodes expected.
Winds will be generally light across the western US with no significant events expected the next 4-5 days. However, some areas of localized influences on the western slopes of the Cascades in OR/WA may see combinations of westerly winds 15-20mph and RHs below 15%-borderline Red Flag conditions. A shortwave will push southeast into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend increasing thunderstorm chances possibly both dry and wet. Despite these chances, drought conditions expected to persist with below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures the next 7 days. Heat and dry conditions are expected to re-amplify early next week as the persistent pattern attempts to build back into the region.
Weather highlights for Wednesday through Sunday:
CA: Persistent higher elevation showers/thunderstorms across north and east CA through Saturday. Drying out south with heat returning.
OR/WA: Persistent breezy westerly winds and dry conditions Wed, Thurs, & Fri will create near Red Flag conditions across western slopes of Cascades and central OR/WA. Dry through the week with scattered wet/dry thunderstorms Saturday.
ID/WY/MT: Periods of wet thunderstorms especially across east ID, south MT, and WY.
When I first saw the trailer for Disney’s Planes: Fire and Rescue, I felt like a really giddy nerd. A so-called kid’s animation flick that bandies words like “SEAT” and “fireline” seemed too good to pass up—one of those movies you might see because it’s too ridiculous to be real.
But last week when I rounded up a group of journalists to go see it—all of us having cut our teeth in the business covering Colorado wildfires—we realized Planes is a little bit more than a fire nerd’s dream movie.
Sure, it was not a feat of cinematic genius. It was rife with racial, cultural and political stereotypes that made me wince. Nonetheless, it speaks to a colossal natural phenomenon that affects millions of North Americans every year.
Wildfire is more than a backwoods problem. And the fact that Disney chose to focus on it—involving extensive collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service—is a big statement, I think. Fires are in the public consciousness—but I didn’t need a Disney movie to tell me that.
I would argue that wildfires have seldom been more in public eye than they have in the past decade. Now, there’s more to burn and more extreme conditions that fuel fire. As the West’s population expands, more people are moving into the wildland urban interface. Just this week I was on a conference call with scientists discussing their concern for how wildfires are made worse by climate change, bringing rising temperatures and persistent drought.
But let me back up a bit. It’s clear from watching Planes that Disney did its homework— however, it also got some things wrong. The story begins with a broken down crop-duster, named Dusty Crophopper, who has to find another life calling. He picks firefighting, flying off to some mythical Western national park (vaguely reassembling Yellowstone) to learn the tricks of the trade. There he joins a crew of re-purposed aircraft and some plucky dozers fighting fires in the wilderness.
For those savvy in the politics of wildfire, the movie has many subtle nods to the budget woes that plague the forest service. (“We never get anything new!” a plane mechanic quips at one point.) Not to mention the slight irony that defunct or retired planes are commissioned to fight explosive fires.
But here is where the message gets mixed: Are firefighting aircraft the panacea that will solve all of our wildfire problems?
In a movie where planes are people, it can certainly seem that without aircraft our firefighters are doomed. The movie’s actual “boots on the ground” crew is a handful of dozers that can be airlifted from fire zones when they get trapped. When fire gets close, the paint blisters on one helicopter and Dusty’s wings get severely singed, but no character dies.
Indeed, airtankers are a spectacular display of firefighting and certainly the most visible. From many miles away people can watch as curtains of retardant fall on a burning forest, but they cannot see the crews on the ground—for whom the airtankers are clearing the way.
Take a look at this air tanker making a drop on the #LevanFire just a moment ago @KSL5TV pic.twitter.com/Yz8cpxfkUs
— Sam Penrod (@KSLsampenrod) July 25, 2014
I don’t know that a child needs to pick up on the political entanglements of the planes and fires. But there was at least one big moral conundrum that I’m a sure younger watcher couldn’t miss: What’s more important, man or nature?
The movie gives conflicting answers to that. At one point a greedy, obnoxious park manager (humorsly cast as a shiny white Cadillac Escalade) taps into the firefighting crew’s precious water supply to save a massive new lodge. The movie’s message here is clear: that’s bad. Water is needed to save “people” (cars, for this movie’s purposes) and the put out the fire, not to douse an ostentatious building.
Then of course there is the portrayal of fire itself—a spectacular beast of nature that must be extinguished at all costs. There is absolutely no mention in the movie about fire ecology, nor does any character explain that many of our Western forests are adapted to fire.
Some might say that’s beyond a child’s comprehension. But if a kid’s movie can have a central character that is a Single Engine Air Tanker, I’d like to think that some mention of the balance of fire and nature could be understandable, too.
Ask anyone—a firefighter, a fire survivor—if fire is “good” or “bad” and you’ll get different answers every time. Fire is destruction and rebirth, even for those who have lost homes to it.
But in the end, and to its credit, Planes is really a movie about being prepared. Dusty Crophopper returns home a true firefighter ready to help defend his local airport from encroaching flames. And maybe that’s all we can do in a nation entangled in a snarl of budget concerns, expanding wilderness populations, and a changing climate—namely, be prepared.
I’m picturing a modern rendition of Uncle Sam pointing his finger at me, at you, at firefighters and politicians: What can you do to be prepared?
A second California man suspected of running an illegal pot-growing operation has been charged with igniting a wildfire, this time in the Sequoia National Forest.
Edgardo Fournier was indicted by a federal grand jury on Thursday and charged with cultivating thousands of marijuana plants, damaging forest lands and starting the Nicolls fire, The Sacramento Bee reported.
Fournier allegedly ignited the blaze when he learned that other men working on the grow planned to kill him, according to court documents. Fournier told investigators he was fleeing other men on July 11 when he decided to light small fires with a cigarette lighter to stop the pursuit, The Bee reported.
The fire eventually grew to more than 1,600 acres and could incur millions of dollars in damages.
The same day the Nicolls fire ignited, California authorities say that Freddie Alexander Smoke III allegedly started the Bully Fire as he was driving a truck to a marijuana grow he was tending.
UPDATE 3 p.m. MDT: The Okanogan County Sheriff is now estimating that at least 300 homes were destroyed by the Carlton Complex fire, according to Inciweb. That number is double the initial estimate of 150.
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The massive Carlton Complex fire in north-central Washington was declared 55 percent contained this week as cooler temperatures and rain gave fire crews a reprieve from two weeks of hot, dry conditions..
The fire has burned 250,489 acres — that’s nearly 400 square miles — and is believed to have destroyed hundreds of homes. At least 7,000 residents in Okanogan County are still without power after the fire; efforts to restore power have been stymied by rain, The Seattle Times reported. Power was expected to be restored in some areas by Friday.
Nearly 3,000 personnel have been assigned to the complex, which is made up of four lightning-started fires that ignited on July 14. The fire has become the largest in state history — surpassing the Yacolt Burn of 1902, which killed 38 people and burned more than 230,000 acres. The Carlton Complex has triggered a federal disaster declaration, which will allow the state to access aid funds from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
There are reports that at least one firefighter has been injured — he suffered second degree burns on his leg after he stepped in a hole filled with hot ash. At least one person, 67-year-old Rob Koczewski, died of a heart attack while digging line around his home to protect it from the fire.
Carlton Complex fire perimeter.
The Chiwaukum Complex, just to the southwest of the Carlton, ignited on July 15 and is made up of three fires that have collectively burned around 12,255 acres. It is 25 percent contained.
Although that fire has not been as destructive as the Carlton Complex, it got a lot of attention when it first ignited two weeks ago, and sent up a massive smoke plume that could be seen from Seattle.
Warnings for elevated wildfire danger were issued Friday by the National Weather Service for areas in Oregon, Utah, Wyoming and Montana.
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 8 a.m. MDT on Friday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data visit this site.
The Alkali fire in northwestern Colorado rapidly burned 20,000 acres in less than 24 hours as of Thursday, and remains the only sizable wildfire to hit the state this fire season.
The fire was discovered north of Maybell around 2:30 p.m. on Wednesday, 9News in Denver reported. The cause remains under investigation. Thus far, the fire has not prompted mass evacuations, but it has destroyed a part-time home and barn and killed three cattle.
It’s been a remarkably quiet fire year for Colorado following two back-to-back years of devastating wildfires in the state. In 2012, the Waldo Canyon fire burned 347 homes in western Colorado Springs, while the Lower North Fork and the High Park fires in Northern Colorado burned hundreds of homes and thousands of acres.
The destruction of that summer was only surpassed by the Black Forest fire in 2013, which destroyed 486 homes east of Colorado Springs and burned under 16,000 acres.
Like much of the west for the past decade, Colorado has been plagued by drought until this year. Torrential rains in September 2013, while killing 10 people and causing massive flood damage statewide, gave the state a much needed reprieve from tinder-dry conditions.
There are a few areas of the state that are still abnormally dry, including Moffat County, in the state’s northwestern-most corner.
Warnings for elevated wildfire danger were issued Thursday by the National Weather Service for areas in Nevada, Idaho, Wyoming and Montana.
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 9:15 a.m. MDT on Thursday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data visit this site.
Warnings for elevated wildfire danger were issued Wednesday by the National Weather Service for areas in Oregon, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming and Idaho.
Fire weather watches were issued for areas in Wyoming and Montana.
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 5 p.m. MDT on Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data visit this site.
