Author: Bill

Scientists set up equipment in front of a spreading fire

(Note from Bill: A Fire Behavior Assessment Team (FBAT) has been studying the King Fire east of Placerville, California. Rae Brooks, an Information Officer at the fire, sent us this article describing what a FBAT does.)

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These scientists set up equipment in front of a fire to collect fire behavior data

by Rae Brooks

FORESTHILL, Calif. — Fire scientists call them “plots.” Dotted ahead of the leading edge of the King Fire, they were deliberately placed in the anticipated path of the flaming front. Each plot contained a video camera, wind-speed gauge and other monitoring devices.

If the flames came, a data logger buried a foot underground would collect information that would allow the scientists to better understand the science of wildfire, gauge the effectiveness of fuel treatments, and contribute to firefighter safety.

So while thousands of firefighters were building line, clearing brush from roads and bulldozing contingency lines to suppress the King Fire, the scientists patiently waited for flames to sweep over their plots, if control efforts failed.

“We want our plots to burn,” said Carol Ewell, co-lead of the FBAT, or Fire Behavior Assessment Team, at the King Fire. “Firefighters put the fire out. It’s a difficult balance.”

fire behavior plot — A plot BEFORE the fire passed through. Photo by FBAT team at the King Fire.

Mark Courson, a division-qualified firefighter and an operations section trainee, served as operations lead for the FBAT at the King Fire. His job was to keep the team safe and advise on site selection.

“Usually I’m thinking of putting the fire out,” said Courson. “Now I’m bucking the system, thinking where suppression might not hold it.”

The team, a U.S. Forest Service module, draws members from around the country to work 14-day assignments on wildfires. Since 2006, the FBAT has recorded data at 16 wildfires, including last year’s Rim Fire, the third largest in California history. Generally, emerging fires with potential for growth suit the FBAT better.

At the King Fire, just three of 10 sites selected burned over. The team averages 50 percent, but sometimes gets lucky and finds all its plots burned.

“It’s a big gamble,” said Ewell. “Our success rate is quite variable, and I’m not sure that’s a hurdle that we can fix.”

The King Fire was particularly difficult to read after it made a speedy 15-mile run northward beginning late in the afternoon of Sept. 17, Ewell said. Rain has since quelled the fire, which is now 89 percent contained.

Despite the inherent difficulties, free-burning wildfires provide conditions that cannot be replicated in laboratory, experimental or prescribed fires. For instance, no prescribed fire would ever be set during California’s current historic drought. The team has recorded active crown-fire runs, fire whirls, spot-fire ignitions, and merger of spot fires with the main flame front.

The team’s prime mission at the King Fire is to study the effectiveness of fuel treatments. Team members set up plots in treated and nearby untreated areas to provide comparisons.

Because they are working ahead of the flaming front, they follow standard firefighting safety protocols, carefully considering whether they can get safely into and out of selected sites. “Unburned fuel between you and the fire,” is one of the 18 Firefighting Watch Out Situations, and, by necessity, their equipment must be placed in unburned fuel ahead of the fire.

“There is risk involved,” said team member Matt Dickinson, an ecologist at the Delaware, Ohio, location of the Forest Services’s Northern Research Station. “One way we mitigate is to set up plots early in the day before the peak burning period. We pull out quite often when we’re not feeling comfortable.”

It takes about an hour for nine FBAT members to install their gear and inventory the vegetation at each site. If firefighters are trying to build line and the team is trying to set up a plot, the firefighters, of course, have priority, said Ewell. “In comparison, we’re just a geek squad,” she said, although most FBAT members are experienced firefighters.

Some of the team's equipment. Photo by Mike McMillan. — Some of the team’s equipment. Photo by Mike McMillan.

At each plot, the team sets up temperature sensors, heat flux sensors, anemometers to measure wind speed, and video cameras encased in heat-resistant steel boxes. The cameras start when trigger wires are burned over. Each camera captures about 80 minutes of footage.

The flames often melt the anemometer’s plastic cups, so wind speeds might only be collected before flames arrive. At each site, team members also bury a data logger in a military surplus ammunition box. Other members collect information about the vegetation, down to counting sticks on the ground.

At the King Fire, the team also recorded fuel moisture data to help fire behavior analysts working on the fire.

In the future, Ewell would like to equip the team with more heat-flux sensors, Go-Pro video cameras with new triggers, and anemometers that can better withstand heat. The team relies on grant money and project funding from the Forest Service to continue its work.

When sites burn over, team members return, when it is safe, to collect their equipment and the data. They also record how the vegetation has fared. Plots that don’t burn are permanently marked with rebar, so they can provide fuels information for other uses.

The team spends evenings entering data and crunching numbers, and tries to complete a summary report before demobilizing from a fire.

Seeing a wildfire burn during severe drought has been an eye-opener, said Dickinson. Most of his experience has been with prescribed fires. He found the tremendous consumption of fuels and the severe damage to trees hard to witness.

William Borovicka, who normally works at the Vinton Furnace State Experimental Forest in McArthur, Ohio, was a first-time FBAT member at the King Fire. Back home, he studies how oak and hickory forests, if left undisturbed, convert to beech and maple woods. His work in Ohio, he feels, plays into management techniques to stabilize the oaks and hickories.

Using FBAT findings to gain a deeper understanding of fire behavior might similarly help forest managers someday with decision-making, Borovicka said.

“Maybe more prescribed fires, or different harvesting techniques,” he said. “Whatever it takes to prevent this kind of blow-up.”

Firefighters travel from Saipan to fight the Happy Camp Fire

While Rae Brooks was assigned to the Happy Camp Complex of fires in northwest California she wrote this story about a crew from Saipan that was working on the fire. The photos were taken by Kari Greer.

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Saipan firefighters usually battle scrubby mango and banana tree fires that last a day or two and burn less than five acres. For a month this summer, 15 firefighters from the tiny Pacific island broke in new boots while working on major wildfires in northern California.

The cold, dry night air, the 16-hour work days and the new boots took their toll, but the Saipan crew still raved about their month-long assignment.

“We all have busted-up feet, we’re sick, but we loved it anyway,” said crew member Derek Gersonde. “It’s a great learning experience.”

The Saipan crew flew to California in mid-August as part of a U.S. Forest Service program that brings wildland firefighters to the U.S. mainland to help out when fires are active and resources stretched. In a matter of days, the crew switched abruptly from their sea-level home of sandy beaches and coral reefs to the rugged mountains of northern California.

After being issued wildland fire-fighting gear — and buying wildland boots, which aren’t stocked in Saipan stores — they started building line at the French Fire on the Sierra National Forest.

Crew boss trainee Alle Recor found the crew tended at first to operate on “island time” and lacked the sense of readiness of the wildland world. On Saipan, fires are close by and easy to reach. But, with a little coaching, that soon changed, said Recor. She found the crew motivated, and eager to have fun and get the job done.

Thirteen of the 15 crew members, who range in age from 22 to 48, work primarily as structural firefighters and are qualified medics for the Saipan Department of Public Safety’s Division of Fire. Although wildland firefighting was a new world, the crew understood fire behavior from their structural background, Recor said. Two others were part of a 2008 Saipan crew that fought wildland fires in California

The crew’s fitness and ability to learn new skills quickly impressed crew boss Tyler Van Ormer, who normally works as a battalion chief with the National Forests of Mississippi.

“The guys catch on so quickly that sometimes I forget how green they are,” said Van Ormer. “You only have to show them once and it’s like they’re old hands at it.”

When Van Ormer got word of his assignment, he had to search Google to confirm the island was actually part of the United States. Saipan is the largest of the Northern Mariana Islands, a U.S. territory in the western Pacific, three-quarters of the way between Hawaii and the Philippines.
Instructors from the western United States travel to Saipan each April to provide basic wildland fire-fighting training. Selection to the wildland crew is competitive for course graduates. While wildfires do occur on Saipan, which is smaller than Rhode Island, they are usually caught quickly.

“It’s such a small island that a fire usually runs into a structure and slows down,” said Gersonde. “We don’t have these huge vast mountain ranges that just blow up. You come here and see how fast a fire can run.”

After the French Fire, the crew spent two weeks at the Happy Camp Complex on the Klamath National Forest.

To help hone their practical firefighting skills, five of the Saipan crew embedded with the Sierra Hotshots and some of the hotshots worked with the Saipan crew. The hotshots emphasized safety and proper technique. After a break, the crew returned to Happy Camp for a second stint. They flew home Sept. 17.

Crew boss Van Ormer lauded the Saipan crew’s work ethic.

“They’re disciplined, they’re nice, they’re polite,” said Van Ormer. “If they don’t know something, they ask. I’ve never heard a complaint. They’re the easiest guys I’ve ever worked with.”

The organizational structure behind fighting a big fire boggled the Saipan crew. When they returned to the Happy Camp Complex, 75 crews, 14 helicopters, 108 engines, 20 dozers and 50 water-tenders were working on the fire, which now sprawls over more than 200 square miles.

The entire island of Saipan is only 1,400 square miles.

After exposure to large-scale fires, some crew members find themselves contemplating a new career path in wildland firefighting on the U.S. mainland.

“A lot of us have it on our minds,” said Gersonde.

California Happy Camp Fire Kari Greer

A grass roots effort begins to increase the number of women in fire

The twelve participants of the Phoenix 2014 Women in Fire Bootcamp pose for a group shot during the Women in Fire Bootcamp Field Day September 13th, 2014. Photo by Tom Story.

The representation of women in the wildland fire business is currently somewhere around 10%, but some women have set out to increase that number. One of their methods that seems to be working is the Women in Fire Bootcamp that took place in Albuquerque and Phoenix over two weekends in September as part of a Forest Service outreach program in Region Three (Arizona and New Mexico).

Founder Bequi Livingston of the Forest Service’s Regional Office in Albuquerque describes the origins in an email: “about ten years ago, I started talking the idea of a “Wildland Firefighter Boot Camp” here in the Region and there was not much interest at the time. As we continued struggling with recruitment and retention of women in wildland firefighting, especially here in Region 3, the idea came about to host a “Women In Wildland Fire Boot Camp” to target our female audience. Luckily, our FAM (Fire and Aviation Management) staff liked the idea and were willing to help fund our first Boot Camp back in March 2011. Our first Boot Camp in March 2011 was great and we had 20 candidates here in New Mexico and I believe, 14 in Arizona. We then hosted the Boot Camp again in March 2012 with not quite as many applicants and did not have a 2013 Boot Camp due to lack of funding. Last fall, I developed and submitted a proposal to the Forest Service FAM Diversity Program to receive funding and support to keep the efforts going. This was with much help from Helen Graham (Assistant Fire Management Officer-Tonto National Forest) in AZ and Linda Wadleigh (Mogollon Rim District Ranger-Coconino National Forest). Luckily we received special project funding through our Washington Office FAM to help fund and support the Boot Camp for the next three years.”

Ms. Livingston continued: “Part of this history includes my personal story and challenges as one of the first women in wildland fire and also my experience in Region 5 with the horrid Consent Decree. One of my intentions is to provide a safe and trusting environment for these candidates with great instructors (men and women) to ensure that we set them up for success rather than failure.”

“Although the program’s intent is to recruit and train women as its target audience, we are very inclusive in that we accept and consider ALL (her emphasis) applicants equally, including males. In fact, we have our first male in our current New Mexico session and he’s been great. We did not get enough applicants to fill all our slots for the New Mexico Boot Camp and had several female applicants pull out, which left us with additional open slots. Josh turned in a good application, is very interested in the program and is in one of those slots. Although our primary intention is to recruit and train women as the target audience, we consider all applicants equally”, Ms. Livingston added.

Jeb Koons, a Fire Management Officer from the Coconino National Forest and one of the Arizona Bootcamp’s instructors summed it up this way: “the program is to recruit women, but once they are here, they are all firefighters”.

Jesse Causer of the Coconino National Forest begins the classroom work at Women in Fire Bootcamp at Phoenix Interagency Fire Center @ Gateway on September 7th, 2014. Photo by Tom Story.

So it was all classroom the first weekend, with more classroom work the second weekend with a field day hosted at the Tonto National Forest’s Goldfield Admin Site on the Mesa Ranger District. There the lectures were put into practice with hands on experience digging line, water handling, mop up, tool sharpening and fire shelter practice along with familiarization with firing devices, pumps, engines and getting used to working together as a crew.

Arizona Bequi Livingston New Mexico Tom Story women

Fire Weather Outlook September 8 through 13

An upper level trough is crossing the western US Monday. This is enhancing the pressure gradient across central WA/OR this afternoon, generating gusty winds in excess of 35mph. Combined with very dry vegetation and relative humidity between 15-20%, red flag warnings have been posted. Weak cold front will cross the region overnight, weakening winds for Tues with slightly cooler conditions and higher RH. A few pockets of lingering gusty winds will persist for northern CA/southern ID/southern OR and the northern Great Basin on Tues. Southern ID will see the strongest winds with an enhanced fire risk. Farther west, very dry vegetation and RHs < 15%, especially for northern NV/north CA will promote fire growth as well, but winds are expected to be weaker. These conditions will still promote continued suppression difficulties of large wildfires in the region.

A disturbance will round the trough as it moves east, passing over the northwest US on Wed. In response, a strong high pressure is expected to develop on the backside of this disturbance across the northern Rockies. This will once again create strong easterly surface flow for much of the west. As winds flow downslope of the Rockies, warm/dry air will situate itself over the western states with above normal temperatures and dry conditions. Some localized breezy conditions are possible Thurs across WA/OR/ID, however they will dwindle Fri as the high moves east with a weakening pressure gradient. Upper level ridging builds back in across the western US this weekend and above average temperatures with very dry conditions are anticipated to continue into next week.

Heavy monsoonal rains (and moisture from ex-hurricane Norbert) will remain possible through Tues in the desert southwest and eventually diminish mid-week. Some very widely scattered dry thunderstorms possible in south/south-central CA. Drying trend will continue into the weekend before another round of monsoonal moisture pushes into NM/NV/UT/CA by early week. This may also be enhanced by another tropical system by mid-week.

Weather Highlights:

CA: Few isolated storms south Mon/Tues, otherwise continued above normal temperatures and very dry conditions. Isolated breezy winds Tues/Thurs for northern CA.

OR/WA: Red Flag Warning Mon. Breezy winds with critically low RH Mon with improving conditions into Tues. Another period of localized breezy conditions Thurs with a warming trend into the weekend. Expect continued very dry conditions, especially for southern OR.

Great Basin/southern ID: Heavy rain possible for the southern Great Basin through Tues. Enhanced fire weather Tues with gusty winds and low RH for northern Great Basin/ID. Dry and warm through the period.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, September 3 through 8

Yet another upper level trough providing some active fire weather conditions today across northern CA/southern OR and most of WY/western SD. With this trough, a lack of mid-level moisture is preventing any thunderstorm activity across the northwestern US. However, very dry conditions (aggravated by drought in CA/OR) combined with windy conditions are developing critical fire weather conditions in both these regions. A surface cold front associated with the trough will slide southeast across the northern Rockies Wed evening and into Thurs. This front will increase humidity across WY/SD lessening fire danger and shifting winds to the north for Thurs.

The same cold front will push south/west across OR/CA overnight Wed. This front will continue mixing overnight with breezy winds and poor RH recovery-continuing elevated fire danger through Wed night. Through late week and into the early weekend, easterly winds will provide additional downsloping off the Rockies and continue increased fire risk with poor overnight RH recovery through Sun. With an off-shore trough developing late-week and weak ridging over the Rockies, temperatures will increase to 90F+ across much of CA/OR/WA. Very dry conditions and RHs at/below 20% will expand eastward/northward across the region and into the central Rockies through the weekend. Breezy easterly winds will continue through Fri for much of OR/northern CA/NV and gradually diminish overnight Fri. As the off-shore upper level trough approaches the West Coast Sun/Mon, westerly winds will increase for much of the northern CA/OR/WA/ID, which may develop widespread critical fire weather conditions. No precipitation is expected for northern CA/NV and WA/OR/ID through the period.

The other major weather highlight will be soon-to-be Hurricane Norbert near the California Peninsula. Current forecast model trends depict moisture streaming northward into the southwestern US by late weekend. Developing monsoonal conditions across AZ/NM/UT/CO late week will provide chances of scattered thunderstorms. However, much more widespread rains/storms could develop for portions of southern CA/NV and much of AZ/UT/CO with the influence of Norbert. Great uncertainty still exists on the exact track of this system, though confidence is increasing on widespread heavy rains late weekend/early next week.

WPC 5-day OPF — Quantity of precipitation forecast for September 3 through 8, 2014. Rains continue to avoid much of the Pacific Northwest and western US, with some much needed relief for southwest US. Image from the Weather Prediction Center.

Weather Highlights:

WY/western SD/northern CO/NE Panhandle: Critical fire weather Wed with breezy westerly winds, RH’s <20%, and warm conditions. Cold front crossing region tonight increasing RH and winds increasing and turning northerly post-front. Becoming very dry/warm Sun/Mon with increasing fire weather threat.

OR/northern CA/northern NV: Critical fire weather Wed through Thurs with breezy northerly wind, turning easterly Thurs AM. Very warm/dry with poor overnight RH recoveries expected through Sat with continued enhanced fire weather conditions. Additional critical fire weather conditions possible Mon/Tues with breezy westerly winds.

WA/ID/MT: Increasing fire weather threat as temperatures warm into the weekend with breezy westerly winds possible late weekend. Continued dry conditions with no precipitation expected (with exception of northern ID/MT Wed/Thurs).

AZ/UT/NM/southern CO: Monsoonal flow returning Thurs/Fri/Sat with scattered thunderstorms, rain becoming more numerous over the weekend, especially across AZ/UT with flooding possible.

Southern CA/southern NV: Very dry and warm through late week. Increasing showers/storms Sun/Mon with flooding possible.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, August 29 through September 2

An upper level trough will cross the northwest Pacific states Fri/Sat and eject into the central Plains on Sun. This will bring periodic windy conditions across the western US and cooler weather for the northwest. No critical widespread critical fire weather is expected, although some areas will have enhanced conditions that will aid in fire spread, especially with drought conditions across the west. Continued heat is expected for the southwest with dry conditions prevailing.

The primary fire threat across the US will focus on warm temperatures and low RHs in the western Great Basin Fri and Sat. Breezy westerly winds are expected Fri/Sat especially across much of NV due to the approaching upper level trough. As the trough shifts eastward, wind conditions will move across northern UT and southern WY/northern CO into Sun/Mon. Dry conditions over much of WY/CO will provide an increased fire risk with these strong westerly winds.

The southwestern US will remain dry and hot through the period. Portions of central/eastern CA/NV/AZ will have poor RH recovery overnight. Though no windy conditions are expected across this region, above average temps and below average precipitation will lead to conditions conducive to human caused fire starts and challenges for suppression

A cold front crossing WA/OR will bring breezy conditions Fri, however, temperatures are expected to remain cool and RH is expected to remain above critical levels. A lack of upper level moisture will prevent any thunderstorm development, however some light rains are possible along western slopes. A stable post-frontal air mass will provide quiet conditions for the Pacific Northwest and eastward with the front’s advancement through the weekend. Cooler weather is expected to continue through the period for WA/northern OR/MT/northern ID with warming conditions likely Tues in advance of the next system.

Long term into mid-week, a summer type pattern looks to return for the central US with another trough pushing into the west. This may develop enhanced fire weather conditions across the western US mid-week and central Rockies mid-to-late week and should be monitored.

Five-day precipitation outlook, issued August 29, 2014.

Weather Highlights:

Eastern CA/NV: Breezy westerly winds Fri/Sat with low RH and warm temperatures. Locally critical fire weather is possible, otherwise generally enhanced fire weather is expected across the region. Winds will be decreasing Sun.

WA/OR: Breezy conditions are likely today across central portions of OR/WA on the eastern sides of the Cascades. Moderate temperatures and RH should prevent any increased fire risks. Warming with decreasing RH across southern OR late weekend and moving northward into next week.

Southern WY/northern CO/northern UT/southern ID: Developing strong westerly winds Sun/Mon. Combined with warm and dry conditions, this will lead to an enhanced fire threat continuing into mid-week.

Southern/central CA/AZ: Continued warm and dry with poor RH recovery. Some breezy winds Fri in eastern CA, otherwise no significant winds/thunderstorms.

Chris Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, August 23 through 28

A large, slow-progressing upper level trough has brought copious moisture to much of the northern Rockies and Eastern Great Basin. Even some winter weather advisories with very a cool air mass over MT. Widespread fire weather threats have been minimal across much of the western US and will likely remain quiet through the weekend. Despite the lack of optimal large fire conditions, several areas will need to be monitored for developing potential into mid-week.

As the trough begins to lift northeast into the northern Plains and Canada early week, another final shortwave will rotate around the apex on Monday. This will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across portions of NV/UT. With lack of low level moisture and drying taking place over the weekend, a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible. No strong winds are anticipated outside of thunderstorm outflows. The threat will diminish Tuesday evening.

A big story will be developing, with upper level ridging along the West Coast and subsequent drying conditions and warming temperatures early week. These conditions will aggravate already drought stricken regions and provide ripe conditions for fire growth for CA and northward into OR/WA. No widespread thunderstorms or wind events are anticipated. However, temperatures above 90F and widespread RHs <20% with some <10% for central OR and northern CA by Wednesday will promote extreme fire behavior.

Weather Highlights:

NV/UT/southern ID: Isolated dry thunderstorms Mon/Tues. Becoming hot and mid-week.

OR/WA: A few scattered showers on Sun, lingering into Mon. Becoming very hot and dry Tues and continuing into late week.

CA: Warm and dry Sat/Sun. Becoming very hot and critically dry by mid-week.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

Fire weather outlook, August 18 through 22

Lack of widespread critical fire weather has kept fire starts down across much of the western US. Expect fire weather to become more critical today in OR/CA and spread eastward into ID/WY through late-week.

A cut-off upper level low off the coast of north CA will provide enough moisture and instability for scattered dry thunderstorms over high elevations. Very dry surface conditions combined with hot temperatures will make fuels very receptive to dry lightning. Tues, the low will drift southward along the coast, but lose ample moisture to provide widespread storms, however a few isolated storms are possible in central/north CA through Tues evening.

A more potent upper level trough will enter dig into the Pacific Northwest Tues, and begin to eject over the Northern Rockies on Wed. In advance of this trough, surface pressure falls are expected across central OR/WY creating breezy westerly winds Tues and Wed. Combined with warm temperatures and dry conditions, fire suppression will become difficult. Higher moisture across extreme northern WA/ID/MT will develop scattered rain and wet thunderstorms over higher elevations bringing some relief mid-week, with a higher heavy rain threat for eastern MT late week.

Surface low pressure will begin to develop across the central Plains in response to the eastward movement of these upper level features. With high pressure over the Rockies and the western US, a strong pressure gradient will set up over WY and southern ID, and northern CO late week. This gradient will develop breezy conditions across these areas leading to critical fire weather. In addition, increased upper level moisture will provide ample conditions for scattered dry thunderstorms across the same areas, especially over higher terrain. Cooler conditions will develop across the northern Rockies late weekend. Meanwhile, warm and dry conditions will continue for CA and western/central OR/WA with isolated locations of gusty winds through the weekend.

Weather Highlights:

CA: Critical fire weather Monday due to dry lightning, warm temperatures and dry conditions. Threat will lessen and drift southward on Tues/Wed. Continued hot and dry through the period.

OR/WA: Scattered dry thunderstorms across higher elevations of southern OR Monday. Increasing winds Tues/Wed with critical fire weather conditions expected Wed. A few wet thunderstorms over higher terrain of extreme nrthern WA.

Southern ID/WY/northern CO: Very breezy conditions developing with warm temperatures and dry conditions continuing into the weekend. Scattered dry thunderstorms possible through the period over higher terrain. Critical fire weather expected Wed through Fri.
MT: Isolated dry thunderstorms possible Wed through Fri for southern MT, with wet thunderstorm chances across northern MT. Otherwise warm and dry through Thurs with heavy rain possible Fri across eastern MT.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather

Arizona: Sitgreaves Complex Managed Fires

(Editor’s note. Today we are welcoming another writer and photographer to the Wildfire Today family. Tom Story, based in Phoenix, is a former newspaper photographer, now self employed editorial and commercial shooter, a one time National Interagency Fire Center contract photographer, and a longtime friend of the wildland fire community. Tom not only researched and wrote the article, but took the photos as well. Bill.)

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Sitgreaves Complex Fire — The crew from Kaibab National Forest Engine 314 — (left to right) Berkeley Krueger, Ben Winkler, and Keith Halloran, consult a map as they plan the day’s managed ignitions on the Sitgreaves Complex August 8, 2014.

“When monsoons arrive in northern Arizona, it is the ideal time for us to manage fires. Fire plays an absolutely essential role in keeping the forest healthy and in reducing the likelihood of high-severity fires that could threaten our neighboring communities,” said Art Gonzales, fire staff officer for the Kaibab National Forest.

So when a lightning strike on Sitgreaves Mountain, between Flagstaff and Williams, Ariz., on the evening of July 13, 2014, ignited a fire, one of several started on the Kaibab National Forest from summer thunderstorms that day, the Kaibab had plans in place to manage it as a resource benefit fire with the hope that they would be able to have the fire treat up to 19,000 acres of mostly ponderosa pine.

Resource benefit fires are managed for multiple objectives including reducing accumulated forest litter and fuels, maintaining fire in a fire-adapted ecosystem, increasing firefighter and public safety, and protecting cultural resources and wildlife habitat.

The Sitgreaves Fire occurred in an area that had been clear cut in the late 1800s-then reseeded, leaving a large area of similar aged trees and because of subsequent policies by the Forest Service, pretty much untouched by fire for over one hundred years.

Arizona managed fire photo by Tom Story Sitgreaves Complex Fire Tom Story

Fire weather outlook, August 14 through 17, 2014

Upper level low centered over OR/WA will continue to weaken over the next few days, before finally drifting northeast into Canada by the weekend. Conditions should gradually improve as thunderstorms become less numerous across the Pacific northwest on Thurs and even less on Fri. Moisture has become abundant around the low and with that, storm modes are expected to be mainly wet. Warm and dry conditions, with an isolated dry thunderstorm threat is possible Thurs across central MT. As the system drifts northeast across portions of MT on Fri, heavy rains are possible across E MT. Other scattered storms across the state are possible through Sat with mainly wet storm modes expected. No widespread critical fire conditions expected.

High pressure is already building into portions of CA, in the wake of the low. Dry, hot, but calm conditions have developed across much of CA and will continue to build north and eastward into OR/WA/NV/ID into the weekend. Temperatures will be above average for much of the western US Sat and Sun and into early next week. Some isolated pockets of breezy conditions are possible in central ID and MT, however, no widespread wind events are expected.

Long term, another upper level low makes an attempt to push onshore to OR/CA early next week. Not overly confident of any widespread thunderstorm activity at this time, though a few storms over higher terrain of north CA Mon and Tues are possible. There are hints at a larger pattern change for mid-week next week which will need to be watched for a possible wind event.

Weather Highlights:

MT: A few dry thunderstorms across portions of central MT Thurs with hot and dry conditions present. Heavy rain possible across eastern MT on Fri, otherwise scattered storms across much of the state. Warming and drying out Sun.

CA: Above average temperatures with dry conditions.

OR: Some showers and wet thunderstorms Thurs. A few lingering showers/storms north on Fri. Drying gradually from south to north, with increasing temperatures.

ID/WA: Scattered showers and wet thunderstorms through Sat, gradually waning and drying out from south to north through the period. Localized breezy conditions Sat/Sun.

WY: Becoming very warm Sat/Sun with breezy conditions.

Chip

Chip Redmond weather