NTSB to hold public forum on the oversight of firefighting aircraft

Sikorsky S-61N helicopter operated by Carson
Sikorsky S-61N helicopter operated by Carson

Following the 2008 crash of the Sikorsky S-61N helicopter operated by Carson on the Iron Complex fire near Weaverville, California in which nine firefighters died, it became clear that the FAA and the U. S. Forest Service had inadequate oversight of the operation of aircraft used for wildland firefighting on federal lands. Here is an excerpt from an article we wrote December 8, 2010 after the NTSB presented their findings from the investigation:

Who regulates wildfire aviation?

The answer is: nobody. The FAA claims they have no authority to regulate the aviation activities of other federal agencies or state and local governments. This authority has to be granted by Congress, which has shown no interest in becoming involved in the aviation safety of firefighters. And the federal agencies, or at least the U.S. Forest Service as proven in this accident, generally do not have the aviation expertise to inspect and regulate their own agency-owned or contracted aircraft. Good luck in trying to not think about this the next time you’re climbing into a helicopter at a fire. (Let’s see – got hard hat, gloves, line gear, tool, life insurance.)

Today the NTSB announced that they will hold a public forum on the oversight of “public aircraft operations”, which includes aircraft used by the federal government on wildland fires. Maybe something good will come out of this, but all they can do is make recommendations, and the FAA sometimes ignores recommendations made by the NTSB. And good luck getting Congress to do anything about anything.

Here is the full text of the NTSB announcement:

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“FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: September 30, 2011

NTSB ANNOUNCES PUBLIC AIRCRAFT FORUM

The National Transportation Safety Board will hold a two-day forum on safety issues related to the oversight of public aircraft operations on November 30 and December 1, 2011, in Washington, D.C.

The event, entitled “Public Aircraft Oversight Forum: Ensuring Safety for Critical Missions,” will be chaired by NTSB Chairman Deborah A.P. Hersman and all five Board members will participate.

Public aircraft are operated by a federal, state, or local government for the purpose of fulfilling governmental functions such as national defense, intelligence missions, firefighting, search and rescue, law enforcement, aeronautical research, or biological or resource management. Government organizations conducting public aircraft operations supervise their own flight and maintenance operations without oversight from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

“Our accident investigations have demonstrated the risks of inadequate safety oversight and identified persistent confusion as to the role of the FAA when it comes to public use aircraft,” said Chairman Deborah A.P. Hersman. “During the forum, we will gather information on the roles and responsibilities of the entities engaged in public aircraft operations and hear about methods for ensuring effective safety oversight.”

Recent NTSB investigations of accidents involving public aircraft include:

  • the August 5, 2008, accident near Weaverville, California, involving a helicopter operated by the U.S. Forest Service on a firefighter transport mission
  • the September 27, 2008, accident in District Heights, Maryland, involving a helicopter operated by the Maryland State Police as a medical evacuation flight
  • the June 9, 2009, accident near Santa Fe, New Mexico, involving a helicopter operated by the New Mexico State Police on a search and rescue mission

Panelists participating in the forum will represent federal, state, and local government entities, aviation industry trade associations, and civil operators contracting with government entities. A detailed agenda and list of participants will be released closer to the date of the event.

The forum will be held in the NTSB Board Room and Conference Center, located at 429 L’Enfant Plaza, S.W., Washington, D.C. The public can view the forum in person or by webcast at www.ntsb.gov.”

Bushfires as seen from space

This video shows Australian bushfires as photographed from the International Space Station in mid-September, 2011. The first part of the video captures views of the aurora australis, or “southern lights”. The bushfires begin appearing at 28 seconds.

The video is most impressive if you click on YouTube, then choose 1080p and full screen.

Fire weather forecast for … the next decade

Wildland firefighters usually follow the weather forecasts religiously, so I was interested to find in the Southern Area Coordination Center Morning Report for Friday, September 30, 2011 in addition to the standard short range forecast an extremely long range forecast for the next 10 years:

An Even Longer Range Outlook Beyond 2011 Into the Next Decade: Given the abnormally low solar activity in combination with cold sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and the trend for La Nina episodes to be stronger and longer, the Southern Region can expect more frequent and prolonged drought conditions. This will amplify fire potential in the South for the next 10 or so years. The fire problem will likely be particularly poignant for Oklahoma and Texas. Drought conditions that are occurring in Texas currently are comparable to those of the mid 1950s as well as the later 1800s during the Dalton Solar Minimum. While the Atlantic Ocean is still in a warmer than average cycle, some cooling has become apparent since the widespread “hot” temperatures seen during the 2005 summer season. A gradually cooling Atlantic ocean in conjunction with a cooler than average Pacific cycle would indicate conditions  leading to more frequent cooler than average temperatures for the US – especially during the fall and winter seasons.

Neptune’s BAe-146 air tanker headed to Texas

Having finally obtained a contract with the U. S. Forest Service, Tanker 40, Neptune Aviation’s jet-powered BAe-146 air tanker will be departing Missoula today en route to a fire assignment in Texas. According to an article in the Missoulian, the air tanker will be working on a fire near Longview.

Dan Snyder, the President of Neptune, told Wildfire Today on Monday that the aircraft had obtained “interim approval” from the Interagency Air Tanker Board (IATB) and would have a one-year contract during which it would be evaluated by lead plane pilots, ground-based firefighters, and air tanker base personnel. At the conclusion of that period, it would be eligible to be considered for full approval by the IATB. Snyder said he expects it to be approved, after which he would most likely convert additional BAe-146s, eventually replacing some of his much older P2V air tankers.

Thanks go out to Bill, Kelly, Al, and Dick

Unable to fill orders for air tankers compared to the number on contract and wildfire activity

I love charts and graphs, and one of our readers has put together a very interesting one. They found data for the number of large air tankers on contract each year and the number of orders for them that were UTF (unable to be filled).

Air tankers UTF chart
Air tankers, UTF data, 2000-2010. Click to see a larger version. Data from NIFC.

The person that sent us the data and asked to remain anonymous, sent us this message that along with the data:

Bill,

Great website, I really enjoy reading it. Here is a little flame for the airtanker debate. This is a continuation of my comments posted to the September 26, 2011 page.

I was curious if the number of large air tanker orders that are filled each year have changed with the decreasing fleet size. I came across these data from http://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_statistics.html. I compiled these in the attached spreadsheet for years 2000-2010.

The percentage of orders that are “unable to fill” have increased as the fleet size has reduced. However, in recent years (2009-2010) with a fleet size of ~ 20 planes, the percent of orders unable to fill were 11.5% on average vs 7% for years (2000-2001) when the fleet size was double at ~ 40 planes. I think this shows that the air tanker fleet size is still meeting demand reasonably well even though it has fewer large tankers available. I’ll be curious to see what this looks like for 2011 and especially 2012 if the fleet continues to reduce.

Of course the number of UTFs for air tankers is affected not only by the number of air tankers on contract, but also by the need for them, or, how busy the fire season is. Here is a chart that I put together using data at NIFC showing the number of acres burned in the lower 49 states (which does not include Alaska) 2000 through 2010. I excluded Alaska because in four of the years during this period they burned between 2,000,000 and 6,000,000 acres, which skews the data. Some of their huge fires see little if any suppression activity, so for this purpose, they are largely irrelevant. (Sorry Alaska)

Acres burned in wildfires, lower 49 states 2000-2010
Acres burned in wildfires, lower 49 states 2000-2010. Data from NIFC, compiled by Bill Gabbert

Interpreting this data is very difficult. I would exclude data for 2002 through 2004, because I believe, and someone correct me if I’m wrong, but due to the two fatal mid-air wing failures in 2002, the number of available large air tankers changed dramatically in the middle of the 2002 and 2004 fire seasons as categories of air tankers were grounded, temporarily or permanently.

If you compare UTFs before and after 2002-2004 with similar number of acres burned outside Alaska, sometimes there is a correlation and other times there is none. For example, a similar number of acres burned in 2000 and 2008, and 2008 had more than triple the number of UTFs. But the years 2001 and 2009 with similar acres burned also had similar numbers of UTFs.

Perhaps we can be safe in saying, based on this data, that if more than 4,000,000 acres burn in the lower 49 states as in 2005-2008, having 21 or fewer large air tankers tends to result in 25-30% of the air tanker orders being UTF, which is about triple the UTF rate when fewer acres burn. In 2000 with 40 air tankers on contract, 6,600,000 acres burned, and the UTF rate was 7%.

 

Neptune Aviation’s Dan Snyder, on Tanker 40

new air tanker
Neptune Aviation's new air tanker, a BAe 146-200 conversion.

On Monday Wildfire Today interviewed Dan Snyder, the president of Neptune Aviation, about Tanker 40, their new jet-powered air tanker that is working its way through the federal government’s approval process. We have written about this aircraft several times, as recently as September 23, but until now it has been difficult to obtain any information about Tanker 40 from Neptune. They have been hesitant to talk about it because they have been in a research and development mode and wanted to protect proprietary information about this completely new type of air tanker. However, some information about the aircraft is still being held close to the vest. When I asked Snyder if the retardant was pumped out of the 3,000-gallon tank by compressed air, he said he was not able to disclose any details about the tanking system other than its capacity.

He confirmed the information we obtained from US Forest Service spokesperson Jennifer Jones about the “interim approval” that the USFS granted for Tanker 40 recently. He said this status is normal for any air tanker with a new tank design after they have passed a test in which retardant is dropped from the aircraft onto a grid where it is collected in measuring cups. That is the objective part of the approval process by the Interagency Air Tanker Board (IATB). The subjective portion will begin after Tanker 40 is signed up on a contract with the USFS and will involve opinions expressed by lead plane pilots, ground-based firefighters, and the staff at air tanker bases. I asked if another aircraft would shadow the tanker and observe from the air or record the drops with infrared imaging equipment, and Snyder said he does not expect that would happen.

Neptune presently has nine P2V tankers on contract. Minden has two P2Vs, making a total of eleven large air tankers on federal exclusive use contracts, compared to the 44 we had in 2002. The BAe-146 will be able to use the same air tanker bases that the P2Vs use.

The one-year contract that is being negotiated for Tanker 40, which Snyder hopes to be in place before the 2011 fire season ends, will be unlike your standard air tanker contract. It will not be a standard Call When Needed or Exclusive Use contract, but will be considered “additional equipment”, which is sort of a hybrid of the two. When, and if, the USFS sees a need for an additional air tanker based on nationwide fire conditions, they will activate it and it will be managed and compensated like an exclusive use air tanker.

The new contract and interim status are expected to last one year, after which the aircraft could be given full approval by the IATB. When that occurs, Snyder said Neptune will probably convert additional BAe-146s into air tankers.