EPA attempts to compare smoke impacts from wildfires and prescribed fires

Releases 438-page report

8:08 a.m. MDT Oct. 1, 2021

EPA study, prescribed fire and wildfire

The release of a 438-page study by the US Environmental Protection Agency to compare the smoke impacts from prescribed vs. wildfire is not a ground-breaking event that will change fire management.

Titled, “Comparative Assessment of the Impacts of Prescribed Fire Versus Wildfire (CAIF): A Case Study in the Western U.S.”, the large 28MB .pdf file can be downloaded here.

In January 2020, the Wildland Fire Leadership Council, an intergovernmental committee formed to support the implementation and coordination of Federal Fire Management Policy and chaired by senior leadership in the U.S. Department of Agriculture and Department of the Interior, requested and paid for the EPA to lead an assessment to characterize and compare the smoke impacts of prescribed fire and wildfire under different fire management strategies, including prescribed fire.

They evaluated two fires, the 3,000-acre Timber Crater 6 Fire that occurred in Oregon in 2018 and the 150,000-acre Rough Fire of 2015 in the Sierra NF, Kings Canyon National Park, and Sequoia NF of California. I could not find any indication that the researchers studied a prescribed fire, which usually burn with different fire behaviors than a wildfire.

The poorly edited report is not light reading and is a slog to wade through the hundreds of pages.

Many of the report’s “key insights” will not be a surprise to land managers (or anyone with a little common sense and exposure to fire management). Here are samples from Chapter 9, “Integrated Synthesis”:

  • Smaller wildfires produce fewer public health impacts than larger wildfires.
  • Convincing the public to evacuate or use air cleaners or HVAC filters to decrease exposure to PM2.5 can decrease public health impacts from smoke.
  • If a wildfire spreads into an area previously treated with prescribed fire it can reduce additional spread of the wildfire.
  • Smoke plumes that do not intersect with high population areas or last only a few days are less likely to have substantial health impacts than fires affecting larger populations for longer periods.

Update at 3:19 p.m. Oct. 1, 2021:

After publishing the article above, we heard from Bob Yokelson with the Department Chemistry at the University of Montana. He and others have produced data showing the differences between smoke produced by prescribed fires and wildfires. It’s all in their paper, “Aerosol Mass and Optical Properties, Smoke Influence on O3, and High NO3 Production Rates in a Western U.S. City Impacted by Wildfires.”

Here is the passage Mr. Yokelson sent us:

“We stress that there is now more than 1,000 hr of ground‐based data from Missoula, suggesting that a typical PM2.5/CO value for aged wildfire smoke at the surface is about half the value in fresh to moderately aged well‐lofted wildfire plumes (Collier et al., 2016; Garofalo et al., 2019; Liu et al., 2017). One airborne wildfire study by Forrister et al. (2015) at lower latitudes and sampling elevations than the other airborne studies is consistent with the downwind net evaporation we apparently observe in Missoula.

“We also stress that, despite the evidence for PM evaporation during aging, there are strong data discussed next, supporting the idea that wildfires produce more PM than spring or fall prescribed fires on a per fuel burned or per area burned basis. Liu et al. (2017) reported that EFs for PM1.0 (gPM1.0/kg fuel burned) are almost four times higher in wildfires (27.1 ± 6.1) than spring and fall prescribed fires (7.3 ± 4.2; May et al., 2014). Our 2 year average ΔPM2.5/ΔCO ratio in aged wildfire smoke (~0.117) is ~1.7 times higher than implied for aged, fall western montane prescribed fire smoke (~0.07) based on May et al. (2014, 2015), suggesting that a remnant of the difference in initial PM emissions can survive aging. Fuel consumption in spring/fall prescribed fires at the national level is typically 7.2 ± 2.7 Mg ha−1 (Yokelson et al., 1999, 2013) as opposed to 34.6 ± 9.9 Mg ha−1 on wildfires (Campbell et al., 2007; Santín et al., 2015).

Combining the emissions and fuel consumption differences implies that wildfires emit 18 ± 14 times more PM per area burned. Although prescribed fires cannot simply replace all wildfires (Schoennagel et al., 2017; Turner et al., 2019), their potential to reduce the level of wildfire impacts deserves more attention. In addition, incorporating higher wildfire initial emissions and temperature‐dependent, post emission OA evaporation may improve models of wildfire smoke impacts (Nergui et al., 2017).”

Citation:
Selimovic, V., Yokelson, R. J., McMeeking, G. R., & Coefield, S. (2020). Aerosol mass and optical properties, smoke influence on O3, and high NO3 production rates in a western U.S. city impacted by wildfires. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 125, e2020JD032791. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JD032791

Wildfire smoke and air quality, August 31, 2021

Forecast for wildfire smoke
Forecast for wildfire smoke at 12:01 a.m. PDT Sept. 1, 2021.

Above is the forecast for the distribution of smoke from wildfires at 12:01 a.m. PDT September 1, 2021.

Below is the current air quality status, obtained at 2:22 p.m. PDT August 31, 2021 from AirNow.gov. There is not much pollution in the East, due in part to Hurricane Ida.

Air quality (Ozone, PM2.5, & PM10) at 2:24 p.m. PDT Aug. 31, 2021
Air quality (Ozone, PM2.5, & PM10) at 2:24 p.m. PDT Aug. 31, 2021. AirNow.gov

Study finds exposure to wildfire smoke can increase premature birth risk

Smoke from wildfires may have contributed to thousands of additional premature births in California between 2007 and 2012.

Satellite photo, smoke in Northern California
Satellite photo. Most of Northern California covered by a layer of smoke, at 9:11 a.m. PDT Aug. 7, 2021.

Exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy increases the risk that a baby will be born too early, a new Stanford University study suggests.

Exposure to wildfire smoke during pregnancy increases the risk that a baby will be born too early, a new Stanford University study suggests. (Image credit: Getty Images)

The study, published Aug. 14 in Environmental Research, finds there may have been as many as 7,000 extra preterm births in California attributable to wildfire smoke exposure between 2007 and 2012. These births occurred before 37 weeks of pregnancy when incomplete development heightens risk of various neurodevelopmental, gastrointestinal and respiratory complications, and even death.

Wildfire smoke contains high levels of the smallest and deadliest type of particle pollution, known as PM 2.5. These specks of toxic soot, or particulate matter, are so fine they can embed deep in the lungs and pass into the bloodstream, just like the oxygen molecules we need to survive.

The research comes as massive wildfires are again blazing through parched landscapes in the western U.S. – just a year after a historic wildfire season torched more than 4 million acres of California and produced some of the worst daily air pollution ever recorded in the state. During the 2020 fire season, more than half of the state’s population experienced a month of wildfire smoke levels in the range of unhealthy to hazardous.

This year could be worse, said Stanford environmental economist Marshall Burke, a co-author of the new study. And yet much remains unknown about the health impacts of these noxious plumes, which contribute a growing portion of fine particle pollution nationwide and have a different chemical makeup from other ambient sources of PM 2.5, such as agriculture, tailpipe emissions and industry.

One possible explanation for the link between wildfire smoke exposure and preterm birth, the authors say, is that the pollution may trigger an inflammatory response, which then sets delivery in motion. The increase in risk is relatively small in the context of all the factors that contribute to the birth of a healthy, full-term baby. “However, against a backdrop where we know so little about why some women deliver too soon, prematurely, and why others do not, finding clues like the one here helps us start piecing the bigger puzzle together,” said co-author Gary Shaw, DrPH, a professor of pediatrics and co-primary investigator of Stanford’s March of Dimes Prematurity Research Center.

Extreme wildfires

The new results show wildfire smoke may have contributed to more than 6 percent of preterm births in California in the worst smoke year of the study period, 2008, when a severe lightning storm, powerful winds, high temperatures and a parched landscape combined for a deadly and destructive fire season – one that has now been dwarfed by the record-setting infernos of 2020 and ongoing blazes like the Dixie fire in Northern California.

“In the future, we expect to see more frequent and intense exposure to wildfire smoke throughout the West due to a confluence of factors, including climate change, a century of fire suppression and construction of more homes along the fire-prone fringes of forests, scrublands and grasslands. As a result, the health burden from smoke exposure – including preterm births – is likely to increase,” said lead author Sam Heft-Neal, a research scholar at Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment.

The research provides new evidence for the value of investing in prescribed burns, mechanical thinning, or other efforts to reduce the risk of extreme wildfires. Given that premature births cost the U.S. healthcare system an estimated $25 billion per year, even modest reductions in preterm birth risk could yield “enormous societal benefits,” said Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science at Stanford’s School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “Our research highlights that reducing wildfire risk and the air pollution that accompanies it is one way of achieving these societal benefits.”

‘No safe level of exposure’

The researchers analyzed satellite data of smoke plumes from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to identify smoke days for each of 2,610 zip codes. They paired these data with estimates of ground-level PM 2.5 pollution, which were developed using a machine learning algorithm that incorporates data from air quality sensors, satellite observations and computer models of how chemicals move through Earth’s atmosphere. They pulled additional data from California birth records, excluding twins, triplets and higher multiples, which commonly arrive early.

After accounting for other factors known to influence preterm birth risk, such as temperature, baseline pollution exposure and the mother’s age, income, race or ethnic background, they looked at how patterns of preterm birth within each zip code changed when the number and intensity of smoke days rose above normal for that location.

They found every additional day of smoke exposure during pregnancy raised the risk of preterm birth, regardless of race, ethnicity or income. And a full week of exposure translated to a 3.4 percent greater risk relative to a mother exposed to no wildfire smoke. Exposure to intense smoke during the second trimester – between 14 and 26 weeks of pregnancy – had the strongest impact, especially when smoke contributed more than 5 additional micrograms per cubic meter to daily PM 2.5 concentrations. “If one can avoid smoke exposure by staying indoors or wearing an appropriate mask while outdoors, that would be good health practice for all,” Shaw said.

The findings build on an established link between particle pollution and adverse birth outcomes, including preterm birth, low birth weight and infant deaths. But the study is among the first to isolate the effect of wildfire smoke on early births and to tease out the importance of exposure timing.

“Our work, together with a number of other recent papers, clearly shows that there’s no safe level of exposure to particulate matter. Any exposure above zero can worsen health impacts,” said Burke, who is also deputy director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment and a senior fellow at Stanford’s Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies. “While as a society it will be extremely difficult to fully eliminate all pollutants from the air, our research suggests that further reductions in key pollutants below current ‘acceptable’ levels could be massively beneficial for public health.”

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Mike.

Smoke and air quality August 24, 2021

Posted on Categories WildfireTags ,
Satellite photo smoke wildfires
Satellite photo showing smoke from wildfires at 5:51 p.m. PDT Aug 23, 2021.

Wildfires in Southern Oregon and Northern California continue to have a large effect on the air quality in those areas and neighboring states. The fires that are the largest producers of smoke in California are Monument, River, McCash, Antelope, Dixie, and Caldor. Several fires in Western Oregon are also contributors. After receiving rain in the last few weeks fire activity has decreased significantly in Washington, Idaho, and Montana.

Below is the forecast for wildfire smoke at 9 p.m. PDT Tuesday.

Smoke forecast for 9 p.m. PDT August 24, 2021 wildfires fire
Forecast for near surface smoke at 9 p.m. PDT August 24, 2021.
Air Quality at 6:48 a.m. PDT August 24, 2021
Air Quality at 6:48 a.m. PDT August 24, 2021. AirNow.gov

Smoke and air quality, August 21, 2021

Air Quality, PM2.5 & PM10, at 6:32 a.m. PDT Aug 21, 2021
Air Quality, PM2.5 & PM10, at 6:32 a.m. PDT Aug 21, 2021. AirNow.gov

The map above shows the air quality, PM2.5 and PM10, at 6:32 a.m. PDT Aug 21, 2021.

The map below is the forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 3 p.m. PDT Sunday August 22.

Forecast for near surface smoke
Forecast for near surface smoke at 3 p.m. PDT August 22, 2021.