Contest: predict the date for entering Preparedness Level 5

Air Tanker Shirt, 2012

It has been a while since we had a contest like the photo-caption contests we had HERE, HERE, and HERE. So we are starting a new one today, to predict the date when the National Interagency Fire Center moves into Preparedness Level 5 at the national level, not in a geographic area. Currently we are at Level 4; the national Situation Report always lists the daily Preparedness Level. Below are the descriptions of levels 4 and 5 (descriptions for all of the levels are HERE):

  • Preparedness Level 4 – Three or more Geographic Areas are experiencing incidents requiring Type 1 and 2 IMTs. Competition exists between Geographic Areas. Nationally, 60 percent of Type 1 and 2 IMTs and crews are committed.
  • Preparedness Level 5 – Geographic Areas are experiencing major incidents which have the potential to exhaust all agency fire resources. 80 percent of Type 1 and 2 IMTs and crews are committed, as well as the majority of other national resources.

If you guess the date correctly and win the tie breaker, you will become the proud owner of a 2012 Air Tanker shirt.

Air Tanker Shirt, 2012

The rules:

  • The winner will be the person who comes closest to predicting the date that we move to Preparedness Level 5 the first time in 2012. If more than one person selects that date, the winner will be the person with the closest date and who most accurately predicts the “Acres from Active Fires” on that same date as listed on the NIFC report at this site. That report is issued on week days only, so if the change to PL 5 occurs on a weekend, we will use the last report prepared before that date.
  • To enter: submit a comment below, on this article, no later than 0001 MDT the day before the national preparedness level moves to Level 5.
    • 1. Choose the date to move to PL 5
    • 2. AND the “Acres from Active Fires” as explained above.  If you don’t guess the acres, you won’t be eligible for a tie breaker, even if you correctly guess the date.
    • 3. When you type your guesses in the comment form, be sure you have a valid email address listed. That is the only way we will be able to notify the winner. As always, we will NEVER disclose anyone’s email address to anyone, unless we specifically ask you first.
  • Please ONLY leave comments on this article that are contest entries. Others will be deleted. But if you want to state your opinion or the reason for your prediction in the same comment WITH your single entry, that’s fine.
  • Only one entry is allowed per person. If anyone submits more than one, all entries from that person will be disqualified. We will be checking IP addresses to detect multiple submissions.
  • By entering, you agree that if you win, you will send us for publication on Wildfire Today a photo of you wearing the shirt at your place of work, along the lines of what was done after another Wildfire Today contest.
  • The real name and place of work of the winner will be announced here on Wildfire Today.
  • People are not eligible to enter if they sometimes have inside information about changes to Preparedness Levels, or if they work at a national government office in D.C.,  NIFC, or a Geographic Area Coordination Center.
  • No more than two shirts will be awarded. Most likely, there will be only one.
  • We reserve the right to change these rules at any time.

Thanks go out to Dick

Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire. Google+

26 thoughts on “Contest: predict the date for entering Preparedness Level 5”

    1. Folks, remember to ALSO predict the “Acres from Active Fires” on that same date as listed on the NIFC report at this site. If you don’t you won’t be eligible for a tie breaker, even if you correctly guess the date.

  1. P.L. V won’t be reached because the Federal land management agencies continue to advice the public that it only seems to be a series of significant events that will soon pass. In the grand scale of the fire world these fires are nothing more than nusiances, sort of like a fly on a horse. How is that fixed wing air tanker program coming along?
    I just thought I would ask.

  2. Aug 22 – 1.6m acres.

    Note: I work at USGS HQ in Reston, in the ‘Greater D.C. Metropolitan Area’

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