What happened to the fall fire season?

The wildland fire season came to a screeching halt about mid-September or even earlier in some areas. Since the Rim Fire in Yosemite National Park, fire activity has been fairly subdued, and there has been no significant, extended appearance of the Santa Ana winds in southern California. The eastern and southern fire season that follows leaf fall and the first severe frost seems to be still waiting in the wings.

This has also been noticed by the National Interagency Fire Center, of course. In an anonymous article on their Facebook page, someone writing on their behalf explored some of the reasons. (Articles like that which lay out numerous facts and opinions should be attributed.)

What happened to the fall wildfires? What about the upcoming fire situation in the southern and eastern states? Here’s some info from Predictive Services –

In early September fuels made a rapid transition to a much more moist state across the Northwestern quarter of the U.S. This led to greatly reduced significant fire potential and changed the focus of fire concern to Southern and Central California. Drier than usual conditions continued across Southern and Central California into October, but weather events necessary to create significant events were rare.

The normal transition of fire season back to the southern and eastern U.S. in the fall associated with leaf drop also did not occur as would be expected. Wetter than normal conditions continued and leaf drop is occurring on top of wet ground and as leaves are falling they are being layered with moisture preventing a significant fall fire season from developing.

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.

4 thoughts on “What happened to the fall fire season?”

  1. If your interest in fall fire season in So. Cal., just checked LaVerne, Ca. 1200 foot elevation in the front country above the Hwy 210. 90 degrees, R.H 07, the wind direction is bouncing all over the place but show very little speed, which I’ve seen even when there have been Santa Ana’s in the canyons. Nov 1.

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  2. November 1, So. Cal. I like the statement; significant weather events are rare in October in Central and Southern California? Twice while leading a fire crew on fires I almost “bought the farm”. Sundowners coast range, August, JANUARY 4th, Santa Ana’s CDF Riverside Unit. AJ Air Tankers (Burbank) was on contract year long in the dry ’59’60’61 years. The best way to see if fire season is really over in Central Ca. is to get a bunch of burn piles started.

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    1. Johnny, were you referring to this portion of the analysis, which was discussing this year’s weather in September and October?

      Drier than usual conditions continued across Southern and Central California into October, but weather events necessary to create significant events were rare.

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      1. Dr. Gabbert, I think I’m reading that correctly. The week before Thanksgiving is usually a dandy for So.Cal fires. Vandenburg AFB (space facility) late Fall 1977 check out that life destroying wildfire. Near Tahoe I’m in the business of Rx fires. Not even thinking about getting the drip torches out in the pine belt below 4500 feet.

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