On March 8 we looked back at the weather in the United States over the last three months knowing that it could have an effect on wildfires over the next three to six months. However the extent to which past weather influences future fires is debatable and can be overridden by the weather conditions during the fire season.
What is YOUR prediction for the 2015 fire season? Like the first robin you see in the spring, the assignment of the first Type 1 Incident Management Team (IMT) is a sign that things are getting real. In the last few years there have been about 30 to 50 assignments each year for T1 IMTs.
So let’s have a contest about the date the first Type 1 IMT will be assigned on a fire.
How to enter: In a comment below this article give us your prediction of the date the first Type 1 IMT will be assigned to a fire in 2015. In case more than one person selects the correct date, include the state. A second tie breaker will be the general area within that state. The date is defined by the date they are actually dispatched to a fire, not necessarily arriving at the fire. For the purposes of this contest, a Type 1 IMT includes only the 16 national interagency IMTs listed here. Only one entry per person, of course.
Deadline for entries: write your date with the two tie breakers in a comment below this article before April 1, 2015. If an IMT is assigned before April 1, the deadline for entries will change retroactively to the day before that fire started.
Prize: the winner will receive a limited edition Wildfire Today cap. So that we can contact the winner, you must enter your correct email address in the form when you are writing your comment. As usual, email addresses will never be disclosed to anyone without your specific permission.
April 2, 2015
A couple of things:
–The deadline for entries was March 31.
–The assignment of a Type 1 IMT on March 30 does not count. We clearly state above that we are guessing about the first assignment of a Type 1 IMT “on a fire”. The name of the incident to which the IMT was assigned on March 30 is “Desoto Aviation Response”; not a fire.
The incident was assigned an WFSU (Wildland fire suppression) management/job code – P8JK6Y (0807).
This was probably a mistake though since FS policy clearly states that WFPR is used for incidents involving serious injury or death (or the project code, ie.. WFHF). – Ref. Forest Service Death and Serious Injury Handbook.
The answer unfortunately is today March 31st in Mississippi due to a helicopter crash.
May 22nd Alaska
May 9th. New Mexico. Gila Zone (GLZ)
May 25 South of Flagstaff, North of Phoenix.
May 15 Alaska Kenai-Kodiak
April 18 in S. Calif. San Diego area
April 2…California…southern
My Team, May 8 SE Arizona.
June 4, Arizona
Custer, SD. Today 3 12, 2015. Request another contest Dr.Gabbert. What date, year or day will the (Fire Aviation) Fed C 130 at McCellean respond to and take action (squirt) on a wildfire?
May 2nd Az
May 1, Central Oregon.
Southern
June 4th
California
Sothern
April 27th, Arizona
Eastern Arizona, May, 27th
Apirl 28 600am eastern Arizona
April 20th in SoCal.
May 1st. So Cal, LA area.
May 16 Arizona SE (Apache-Sitgreaves/Coronado/Tonto)
May 3rd Northern Arizona
April 10. New Mexico. Southwest quadrant.
May 5th- Alaska- Tanana valley Area
May7 southeast arizona
April 8 – Arizona – anywhere on or near (touching) the Tonto NF
June 10th
California
April 30, Southern California
(although Ken might be onto something with his flooding guess)
April fools day. NorCal..
April 12 central FL
March 31, Southern California
May 28th Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness Minnesota
May 20 Northern Minnesota
May 23 AZ Southeast/Corronado
May 20th, California, North Ops
April 13, Southern California
Be very careful Bill. I once got in a peck of trouble for running a similar contest while working in the Senate. Some of those wounds still sting when I google myself three years after someone gave the story to the Washington Post.
Fair point, Frank. However, your contest was to guess the date of the next crash of an air tanker, an event that usually involves multiple fatalities. This one is to guess the first assignment of a Type 1 IMT. There are usually 30 to 50 of those each year — fairly routine occurrences in the world of wildland fire.
Alaska – April, 22
May 7, South Ops
April 2nd – Upper Mississippi/Great Lakes Basins – Flooding
May 3, AZ, southern part of state
Pacific North West- Southern Oregon
May 30
PNW Type I team
Alaska May 10th
April 10 Alaska
May 11th, WA around the area of Yakima & Kennewick
May 23rd, Alaska, Tanana Valley
May 10th, MN, Arrowhead region of the state
April 18th central AZ
April 20th, AZ, Northwest quadrant (north of Prescott, west of Flagstaff, inclusive)
May 16
May 10, Eastern MT
April 28th Southern California
May 1st. Southern California.
April 29th
Please indicate your tie breaker predictions: state, and general area within the state.
May 22 Cali North ops
May 15th, CA, North Ops.
May 16th. Alaska.