The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their National Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December, 2012 through March, 2013:
Significant Fire Potential
- For December above normal significant wildland fire potential only exists across a portion of the west central U.S. stretching from Nebraska and Wyoming south through Colorado, Kansas and Oklahoma into Texas and New Mexico. Small portions of the Hawaiian Islands also show above normal significant wildland fire potential. By the January through March timeframe no above normal significant fire potential is expected in the U.S.
- Below normal significant fire potential is expected across much of the southeastern U.S. for the entire forecast period.
- Elsewhere expect near normal significant fire potential to exist. In many areas of the western U.S. this indicates fall and winter conditions that are generally considered out of fire season.
Climate and Drought Conditions
- El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures continue to indicate a neutral ENSO pattern.
- Drought: Most of the nation had less than 50 percent of normal precipitation for November with only parts of the northwestern U.S. receiving normal to above normal rain and snow. Severe to exceptional drought continued over most of the central and western U.S. with pockets in the Southeast.
- Fuel Conditions: Generally fuel conditions across the areas of most concern this time of year are better than normal. However, a trend of continued dryness across much of the central U.S. especially into Colorado and New Mexico indicate the possibility of seeing an early onset of fire season in these areas, though that should be later in the outlook period.
- Weather Outlook: Current climate projections by the Climate Prediction Center favor a continuing neutral pattern. For December, long range models indicated a high probability of above normal temperatures over much of the southern U.S. and northern Alaska while below temperatures settle over the northern Plains, the upper Midwest and southwestern Alaska. Precipitation projections indicate a high likelihood of below median precipitation for the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Southeastern Alaska will likely be drier than normal.
For January through March, projections show higher probabilities for above normal temperatures across northern Alaska, most of the Southwest, the Great Basin, the central and southern Rockies, the central and southern Plains, and the lower Mississippi Valley. Below normal temperatures are probable over the far northern Plains and southern Alaska. Precipitation will be above median over the Ohio and mid-Mississippi Valleys and below median across California and the Southwest.
