The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for February through May, 2013. If the predictions are accurate wildfire activity in February and March should be normal or below normal, except for portions of Colorado, Kansas, Hawaii, and Florida.
More details from the NIFC report:
February
- Precipitation deficits and long term extreme drought contribute to above normal significant wildland fire potential in the central Plains.
- Periodic precipitation across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, central Gulf States and the mid-Atlantic will keep below normal significant wildland fire potential in much of the east.
- Long term drought in Hawaii will keep above normal significant wildland fire potential on the Big Island.
March
- The seasonal increase in fire across Florida will be amplified to above normal significant wildland fire potential by ongoing very dry conditions.
- Late winter storm track will continue across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, keeping significant wildland fire potential below normal.
- Drought continues in Hawaii.
April and May
- Spring pre-greenup potential and long term drought keep parts of the Southeast, Oklahoma and Arkansas in above normal significant wildland fire potential.
- Good winter precipitation and lingering spring precipitation keep the southern Appalachians and parts of mid-Atlantic below normal significant wildland fire potential.
