The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2014. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. If their prediction is correct there will be increasing wildfire potential during the period in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Oregon.
April – Above normal significant fire potential will continue over portions of southern California; the central Plains from southeastern Colorado to Iowa and northern Missouri; and southwestern and south central Alaska. – Below normal significant fire potential will develop over most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma. The Canadian border region from northern Minnesota to Maine will also have below normal fire potential.
May – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over portions of southern, central and northern California; and over most of western Alaska. – Above normal fire potential will increase in the Southwest and decrease over the central Plains. – Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
June through July – Above normal significant fire potential will expand over most of northern California, central Oregon and northwestern Nevada; over the far southern Gre
Yesterday the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center released their monthly drought outlook for April 30, 2014:
The latest Drought Monitor, released March 27, is below:
Thanks for the post…… The models I have seen show a season comparable to last year. We will be headed into the Rockies in Colorado again around June if that’s the case. Then work our way North as the season advances.
These models do look very close to what they looked like last year. And, in a clockwise motion work to the west and up through the North working back toward the East. We shall see, I guess.
Just want say that in my ten years of being a wildland firefighter and being on a volunteer fire department for 8 years its interesting to see how people predict if there will be an increase in wildfire potential I live in upper peninsula of Michigan and I saw more of an increase in wildfires for June into July what is causing this.