Prediction issued for this summer’s wildfire potential

The forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that in July it will increase to higher than “normal” this summer in Alaska, Texas, Northern California, and the eastern portions of Washington and Oregon. In August added to the list will be parts of Montana, the Black Hills, and the Northern Plains. Hawaii will be above normal for the next four months.

The fire potential text and maps from NIFC shown here represent the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Additional graphics are included from other sources.

Below:

• Excerpts from the NIFC narrative report for the next four months;
• Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index;
• Soil moisture.

“Most of the West, Plains, and Texas remain in drought, with areas of extreme to exceptional drought across the southwestern US. Drought developed across southwest Alaska and expanded or increased in severity across the Southeast and Hawai’i. Temperatures were above normal across the southern tier of the US and the Plains, with near to below normal temperatures across the northwestern US and the Northeast.

“Climate outlooks indicate below normal precipitation is likely across much of the Plains through the central Rockies into the Inland Pacific Northwest, with above normal temperatures likely across most of the contiguous US (CONUS) through summer. A robust North American Monsoon is expected to continue through July into August across the Southwest and portions of the broader Four Corners region. Alaska is likely to remain warm, with near normal precipitation likely through summer.

“Above normal significant fire potential is forecast for the southern Plains through October, spreading across Texas, the Lower to Mid-Mississippi, Missouri, and Ohio Valleys by fall. Much of the central and northern High Plains, including the Black Hills, are likely to have above normal potential through summer. The Southwest, southern Great Basin, and Colorado Rockies have returned to near normal potential.

“Southwest, south-central, and Interior Alaska will have above normal significant fire potential through August, although portions of southwest Alaska will likely return to near normal potential during August. Much of the Sierra and Coast Ranges in California will have above normal significant potential by August, continuing through September. Offshore wind prone areas in California will likely retain above normal potential in October as well. Along and east of the Cascades into much of the western and northern Great Basin is expected to have above normal potential this summer due to above normal fine fuel loading and long-term drought, with southwest Oregon likely to have increasing potential by August. Leeward sides of the Hawai’ian Islands will have above normal potential through October due to ongoing drought and likely enhanced trade winds.”

Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire. View all posts by Bill Gabbert