Areas of Victoria and New South Wales could receive zero to over two inches of precipitation this week
Precipitation detected by radar over Victoria and New South Wales at 4:35 p.m. PST January 15, 2020. Fires are indicated by the flame icons.
Predicted rain and cooler temperatures this week in Australia could slow the spread of the bushfires in Victoria and New South Wales. The heaviest rain will be on the east coast where some areas could receive over two inches while the forecast on the west side of the two states is for much less or perhaps none.
The rain is the product of a deep inland trough drawing humid air into the system.
Small amounts of rain will not put out the fires, but could make them partially dormant for a period of days, giving firefighters time to regroup and construct firelines on portions of the perimeters. But many of the fires are far too large to ever be completely encircled by firelines.
Some of the rain will come in the form of thunderstorms, leading to the possibility of flash flooding, landslides, and fallen trees.
The rain will be welcomed by residents and especially farmers in the drought-stricken communities.
Precipitation (in inches) predicted for Australia, January 14 through 19, 2020.
Wildfires have the potential to become a concern at seven additional bases where it is not now a serious threat
3-D map of the Canyon Fire on Vandenberg Air Force Base, looking east. The red line was the perimeter of the Canyon Fire at 11 p.m. PDT September 20, 2016. The white line was the perimeter at approximately 11 p.m. September 19.
A report prepared by the Department of Defense in 2019 identified 36 bases where wildfire is currently a concern. Taking climate change into account that number is expected to grow to 43 over the next 20 years.
An analysis required by the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2018 studied 79 priority installations based on their operational role. The goal was to assess the significant vulnerabilities from climate-related events in order to identify high risks to mission effectiveness on installations and to operations.
The installations break down by organization as follows:
Department of Defense
In addition to the predicted effects of climate change on wildfire potential, the report also considers recurrent flooding, drought, desertification, and the thawing of permafrost.
The installations that currently are not classified as vulnerable to wildfires but are expected to become so within 20 years are:
Key West Naval Air Station, Florida
Kings Bay Naval Submarine Base, Georgia
Joint Base Pearl Harbor & Hickham, Hawaii
Wahiawa Annex, Hawaii
Naval Magazine Indian Island, Washington
Naval and Submarine Base Bangor, Washington
Naval Base Guam
Of the 79 installations that were considered in the study, all that were predicted to develop a new vulnerability to wildfire are Naval Bases. Of the 21 Army bases only 4 are now described as vulnerable to wildfire and no others are identified as becoming vulnerable within 20 years.
A summary from the report of current and future (20 years) vulnerabilities to military installations.
One example of an Air Force Base that is currently vulnerable to wildfires is Vandenberg on the Southern California Coast. Two fires on the base come to mind:
On December 20, 1977, three people were entrapped and killed on the Honda Canyon Fire on the base, including the Base Commander Colonel Joseph Turner, Fire Chief Billy Bell, and Assistant Fire Chief Eugene Cooper. Additionally, severe burns were experienced by Heavy Equipment Operator Clarence McCauley. He later died due to complications from the burns.
They were interviewed for an Australian television program
Eric Zonotto, a Fire Management Officer for the U.S. Forest Service in Colorado, is interviewed in Australia. Screenshot from the SBS Dateline video below.
Chuck Russell of the National Park Service, Eric Zonotto of the U.S. Forest Service, and other firefighters from the United States talk in the video below about the intensity of their deployment in Australia alongside New South Wales Rural Fire Service personnel and their respect for the Australian volunteer firefighters and the local communities.
‘We just ran out of water,’ US firefighters describe the horrors of battling Australia’s bushfires. pic.twitter.com/Mk5IZxXsbt
AFAC has an article about representatives from the U.S. Forest Service that are serving in a liaison capacity, Chris Niccoli, Shawna Legarza, and Gordy Sachs.
AFAC maintains the National Resource Sharing Centre (NRSC), which facilitates international and interstate deployments through its established partnerships and national arrangements. AFAC photo.
Many people would like to travel to Australia to help with the response and recovery from the historic bushfires, either as a paid employee or a volunteer.
The National Council for Fire & Emergency Services (formerly the Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council or AFAC), is the primary organization responsible for representing fire, emergency services, and land management agencies in the Australasian region. It is still known as AFAC.
Below is a statement AFAC released January 11 that lays out their process for requesting and accepting assistance during the bushfire crisis.
AFAC maintains the National Resource Sharing Centre (NRSC), which facilitates international and interstate deployments through its established partnerships and national arrangements.
The NRSC is tasked by the Commissioners and Chief Officers of fire and emergency service agencies in Australia and New Zealand, and is supported the Australian Government through Emergency Management Australia and the Crisis Coordination Centre.
The NRSC coordinates interstate and international resources, responding to the needs of our members. Currently, we have international assistance from the Canada, the United States and New Zealand in Australia assisting our effort.
Australia continues to receive generous offers of support from around the world to assist during the ongoing bushfire crisis. Each request that is received is logged and in collaboration with the Crisis Coordination Centre, is assessed for its suitability to our Australian operating environment. Key considerations include:
– Is it fit for purpose?
– Does it meet our safety requirements?
– Can it easily align to our common incident management system?
– Does it meet the appropriate legal requirements?
– Does an agency want to receive it?
Unfortunately, not all requests are able to be accepted. Our number one priority is the primacy of life, for fire and emergency personnel and the community. We need to ensure that wherever possible, operations are carried out safely, supported by resources with the appropriate skills and equipment to meet the needs of the situation. Familiarity with Australian fire conditions is critical.
AFAC remains committed to supporting its members and will continue to work with our partners and the Australian Government to ensure that our fire and emergency services have the support that they need.
Satellite photo showing smoke from the fires in Australia, January 12, 2020. The red areas represent heat. NASA.Map of fires in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia by @gergyl January 12, 2020.
Two Country Fire Service trucks were involved in burn-overs
Map showing the extent of the Ravine Fire on Kangaroo Island, January 12, 2020. South Australian Country Fire Service.
The Ravine Fire that has been working its way across Kangaroo Island off the coast of South Australia has burned almost half of the area of the island, over 210,000 hectares (519,000 acres) or 48 percent. (See map of the fire above)
Below is an excerpt from a January 10 article at 9News:
Properties have been lost, firefighters injured and more land blackened after a night of horrific conditions across the Kangaroo Island bushfires, but the emergency has eased. Assessments are underway, but some homes are believed lost at Vivonne Bay while the town of Parndana was spared for a second time, despite fire bearing down on it from several directions. Both towns had been evacuated amid emergency warnings and the escalating danger.
Two Country Fire Service trucks were involved in burn-overs and two more CFS personnel were injured, taking the total hurt on Kangaroo Island to 22.
With rain falling across the fire ground on Friday, the warning levels for all fires were reduced first to a watch and act and then to a simple bushfire advice.
CFS chief officer Mark Jones said Thursday night was an “incredibly difficult” period for all 280 firefighters on the island.
“Winds were not consistent, they were blustery and came from many different directions,” he said.
The fire danger will increase on Monday as the forecast of Kingscote calls for winds out of the south at 8 to 16 mph. Those northerly winds will grow to 14 to 20 mph Tuesday through Thursday with very little chance of rain.
Much of the eastern third of the island consists of pastures or agriculture land without as many forested areas as found on the west end where Flinders Chase National Park is located. Most of the park has burned along with many structures in and near the park.
The State Government on Sunday reported that more than 32,000 livestock animals, mostly sheep, perished in the blazes as well as 830 hives and 115 nucleus hives.
The satellite photos below illustrate the eastward growth of the fire on Kangaroo Island over a five-day period.
January 6, 2020 satellite photo showing the Ravine Fire on Kangaroo Island. The red areas represent heat. NASA.January 11, 2020 satellite photo showing the Ravine Fire on Kangaroo Island. The red areas represent heat. NASA.
