Video: prescribed fire in the Midwest

This video shows prescribed burning in Cook County near Chicago, Illinois between November 10 and November 30 of this year. If you love hard rock music, you will like the sound track. If not, then you’ve been warned.

Parts of it were shot with a helmet-mounted Contour Roam camera and then edited with VideoPad. The video can also be found on YouTube.

Report concludes climate change will require the number of wildland firefighters in Australia to double by 2030

wildfire activity related to climate change
How climate change affects wildfire activity. From the Climate Council report. Click to see a larger version.

A report issued by Australia’s privately funded Climate Council has concluded that the number of professionals needed to fight bushfires in Australia will double by 2030. This major shift will be required by changes attributed to climate change. The 63-page report, titled Be Prepared: The Changing Climate and Australia’s Bushfire Threat, is entirely devoted to how climate change is already affecting wildland fires and how the rate of change is expected to increase over the next decades.

According to the report the most direct link between bushfires and climate change comes from the long-term trend towards a hotter climate. The change is increasing the frequency and severity of very hot days and driving up the likelihood of very high fire danger caused by weather. Changes in temperature and rainfall may also affˆect the amount and condition of fuel and the probability of lightning strikes.

The report lays out the current and predicted situation extremely well through the text and illuminating graphics. Click on the images here from the report to see larger versions.

I especially like the graphic above, which illustrates how four factors that affect wildland fire are being influenced by climate change

  • Ignitions: more lightning leads to more fires;
  • Fuel load will increase due to higher carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, and more rainfall. It could also decrease in some areas and vegetation types as a result of higher temperatures and less rain.
  • Fuel condition: higher temperatures and decreasing rainfall will increase fire activity while more rain in some areas will decrease fire activity.
  • Weather: higher temperatures will greatly increase fire activity.

Obviously it is a complex scenario with the factors having varying effects around the world where climate change affects local areas differently and vegetation types have specific responses to changes in weather.

Average temperature due to climate change

The report concentrates on the effects in Australia, but also covers changes observed world-wide. As we have pointed out, in the United States there was an abrupt transition of fire activity in the mid-1980s with higher fire frequency, longer fire durations, and longer fire seasons. Fire frequency from 1987 to 2003 was nearly four times the average for 1970 through 1986. The area burned from 1987 to 2003 was more than six times that from 1970 to 1986, and the length of the fire season increased by about 2 months (Westerling et al., 2006).

The report discussed how fires affect carbon in the atmosphere:

Bushfires generate many feedbacks to the climate system, some of which can increase warming, while others decrease it. Emission of CO2 from bushfires generally represents a redistribution of existing carbon in the active carbon cycle from vegetation to the atmosphere.

As long as the vegetation is allowed to recover after a fire, it can reabsorb a very large fraction of the carbon released.  By contrast, the burning of fossil fuels represents additional carbon inserted into the active land-atmosphere-ocean carbon cycle.

Increasing fire danger will make it more difficult to find times when planned prescribed fires are within the established prescriptions, which could result in fewer acres treated and higher fuel loads near wildland urban interfaces.

Gary Morgan quote

Researchers study ignition of wildfires by rifle bullets

Still photos, bullet impact(Click the photo to see a larger version. These photos are from the research paper referenced below.)

In research that was published in August, it was found that all types of rifle bullets studied were capable of starting fires in vegetation after being deflected by a steel plate. Fragments of most of the bullets that scientists at the U.S. Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station collected in a bed of peat moss reliably caused ignitions, specifically those containing steel components (core or jacket) and those made of solid copper. Lead core-copper jacketed bullets caused only one ignition in these tests. Solid copper bullets were the most consistent in producing ignitions at all angles and all targets.

Many wildfires are caused by target shooting, so it is helpful to have some actual data examining how they are ignited and by what type of ammunition. Lead core copper jacket bullets appear to have a low probability of starting fires.

While the military has conducted numerous studies on bullet fragmentation, this is the first time that researchers have looked at the probability of ignition (PI) in vegetation.

This research shows that fires can be ignited by hot fragments of the bullets due to the heat generated when the kinetic energy of the lead, copper, or steel is transformed to thermal energy by plastic deformation and fracturing from the high-strain rates during impact. Lead has a lower melting point than copper or steel, which contributes to the lower PI of lead core bullets.

Probability of ignition of bullets

In the study a high-speed video camera was used at frame rates of 8,000 to 100,000 frames per second to attempt to capture impact fragmentation and impact flash. Usually the camera was positioned from behind the bullet as it was fired. Researchers found that a camera placed in front of the bullet lasted only one series before being destroyed by a fragment.

The study was conducted by Mark A. Finney, Trevor B. Maynard, Sara S. McAllister, and Ian J. Grob.

Below is a video shot by a company that sells a 1,000,000 frame per second camera, showing bullets striking various objects. We are hoping to gain access to the video shot by the USFS researchers. If we do, we’ll post it here.

 

Thanks go out to Ken

Most of the Yarnell Hill Fire fine to be passed on to the dependents of the firefighters

Most of the monetary fine that was assessed against the Arizona State Forestry Division as a result of the 19 firefighter fatalities on the Yarnell Hill Fire near Yarnell, Arizona on June 30 will be given to the employee’s dependents or their estates if the employee did not have any dependents.

On Wednesday the Industrial Commission of Arizona approved the recommendations of the state’s Division of Occupational Safety and Health (ADOSH) to impose fines totaling $559,000 on the Arizona State Forestry Division which had responsibility for the suppression and management of the fire. The $559,000 includes $25,000 for each firefighter that died, to be given to their family or estate.

The reports released Wednesday pointed out many problem areas which may have contributed to the 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots becoming entrapped and killed by the fire.

Photos from the Arizona OSHA meeting about Yarnell Hill Fire fatalities

Marshall Krotenberg, (left) Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health Safety Compliance Supervisor
Marshall Krotenberg, (left) Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health Safety Compliance Supervisor, explains his recommendations to members of the Industrial Commission of Arizona.

Tom Story shot these photos today at the meeting in Phoenix where the  Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health (ADOSH) proposed fines totaling $559,000 to be imposed on the Arizona State Forestry Division as a result of the fatalities on the Yarnell Hill Fire near Yarnell, Arizona. Their findings were presented to and approved by the Industrial Commission of Arizona.

We have more on the fines and today’s investigation report about the fatal fire.

Thanks for the photos Tom.

Industrial Commission of Arizona Vice Chair Susan Strickler
Industrial Commission of Arizona Vice Chair Susan Strickler, questions Marshall Krotenberg, (left) Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health Safety Compliance Supervisor, during his report to members of the Industrial Commission of Arizona.
Marshall Krotenberg
Marshall Krotenberg, Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health Safety Compliance Supervisor, explains his recommendations to members of the Industrial Commission of Arizona
Dan Parker, father of Wade Parker
Dan Parker, father of Wade Parker, one of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, talks to the media following the state industrial commission meeting December 4, 2013. 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew, including Wade Parker, perished in the fire.
David Turbyvill, father of Travis Turbyvill
David Turbyvill, father of Travis Turbyvill, one of the Granite Mountain Hotshots, talks to the media following the state industrial commission meeting December 4, 2013. 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshot Crew, including Travis Turbyvill, perished in the fire.

State analysis of Yarnell Hill Fire fatalities proposes $559,000 fine for Arizona State Forestry Division

Yarnell Hill Fire at 1549 June 30
Yarnell Hill Fire at 1549 June 30, 2013. Photo by Chris MacKenzie of the Granite Mountain Hotshots. The arrow represents the location where the lookout had been positioned earlier.

(Originally published at 2:46 p.m. MT December 4, 2013; updated at 8:30 p.m., December 4, 2013)

Today the Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health (ADOSH) proposed fines totaling $559,000 to be imposed on the Arizona State Forestry Division as a result of the fatalities on the Yarnell Hill Fire near Yarnell, Arizona. Their findings were presented to the Industrial Commission of Arizona during a 1:00 p.m. public meeting in Phoenix. The documents can be found HERE.

On June 30, 19 members of the Granite Mountain Hotshots were entrapped by rapidly spread flames from a brush fire and were killed. One member of the crew who was in a different location serving as a lookout was not injured.

Two citations were proposed, one “willful serious” with a tine of $545,000, and another that was “serious” with a fine of $14,000.

[UPDATE at 6:46 p.m. MT December 4, 2013; The commission approved the fines. The Arizona State Forestry Division has 15 days to appeal the decision.]

The willful serious citation included the following (paraphrased):

  • Failure to furnish a place of employment which was free from recognized hazards that were causing or likely to cause death or serious physical harm.
  • Implementation of suppression strategies that prioritized protection of non-defensible structures and pastureland over firefighter safety.
  • The employer knew the suppression was ineffective, and that the wind would push the fire toward non-defensible structures, but firefighters were not promptly removed from exposure to smoke inhalation, burns, and death.
  • Thirty-one members of a structure protection group charged with protecting non-defensible structures were exposed to possible smoke inhalation, burns, and death.
  • A lookout was exposed to the same dangers.
  • Approximately 30 firefighters working on an indirect fireline in Division Z were exposed to the same dangers.
  • The Granite Mountain Hotshots continued with suppression activities until 1642 hours on June 30 when they were entrapped by a rapidly progressing wind driven wildland fire.

The serious citation, totaling $14,000:

  • The employer failed to implement appropriate fire suppression plans in a timely fashion during a life-threatening transition between initial attack and extended attack.
  • When the fire escaped initial attack none of the following analysis procedures were implemented: Incident Complexity Analysis, Escaped Fire Situational Analysis, Wildland Fire Situation Analysis, Wildland Fire Decision Support System, or Operational Needs Assessment.
  • On June 29 an Incident Action Plan was not completed for the next operational period prior to transitioning to a more complex management team.
  • The positions of Safety Officer and Planning Section Chief were not filled on June 30.
  • On June 30 the Division Z Supervisor (adjacent to the Granite Mountain Hotshots’ Division) departed from his assigned position which left Division Z without supervision during ongoing fire suppression operations.

Today, in addition to the citation information, the following documents were released by the Industrial Commission of Arizona:

We will add to this article later with more details about the investigation report, but below are the conclusions reached by Wildland Fire Associates, the consultants hired by the Arizona Division of Occupational Safety and Health:

  • Fire behavior was extreme and exacerbated by the outflow boundary associated with the thunderstorm. The Yarnell Hill Fire continually exceeded the expectations of fire and incident managers, as well as the firefighters.
  • Arizona State Forestry Division failed to implement their own extended attack guidelines and procedures including an extended attack safety checklist and wildland fire decision support system with a complexity analysis.
  • The incident management decision process failed to recognize that the available resources and chosen administrative strategy of full suppression and associated operational tactics could not succeed. This also remained the case when the strategy changed from full suppression to a combination of point protection and full suppression.
  • Risk management weighs the risk associated with success against the probability and severity of failure. ASFD failed to adequately update their risk assessment when the fire escaped initial attack leading to the failure of their strategies and tactics that resulted in a life-threatening event.

****

UPDATE at 8:30 p.m. MT, December 4, 2013

We just finished reading the “Inspection Narrative” compiled by AZ OSHA, and the “Granite Mountain IHC Entrapment and Burnover Investigation” report written by Wildland Fire Associates (WFA).

The Inspection Narrative

We noticed a couple of interesting tidbits in the Inspection Narrative that we don’t remember being pointed out in the previous Serious Accident Investigation Team report which was released on September 28.

One was found on page 18. At approximately 1545 hours, one of the the Type 2 Operations Section Chiefs called the Granite Mountain Hotshots and asked if they could spare resources to assist in Yarnell. Either Marsh or GMIHC Captain Steed responded that they were committed to the black and he should contact the Blue Ridge Hotshots.

While the GMIHC said they were not available for the change in assignment, the request from the Ops Chief informed them that they were needed in Yarnell. This may have influenced their decision to move toward the ranch, perhaps with the ultimate goal of assisting in the town. We could not find a mention of this in the WFA report.

One other item in the Narrative (on page 17) we noticed was a disagreement and/or confusion about the break between Divisions A and Z. The Division Z Supervisor didn’t arrive on the fire line until 1 p.m. on June 30. I in addition to the Division break fiasco, he was not clear at all about what tactics in the area could be successful. He left the fire line to head to the Incident Command Post and did not return. Parts of this were also mentioned in the WFA report. The problem with filling the Division Z position was mentioned in the citation.

Below are some quotes from the WFA report:

P. 15: At 1558, ATGS abruptly leaves the fire and goes to Deer Valley. He turned air tactical operations over to ASM2 who was busy dealing with lead plane duties at the time. ASM2 got a very brief update from ATGS that did not include division breaks locations and the location of the on-the-ground firefighters. ASM2 had been ordered as a lead plane because ATGS functions were covered.
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