The winds are going to be breezy to very strong, off and on through Thursday
Hot-Dry-Windy forecast for Southern California, January 16, 2021
After record high temperatures were set Friday in multiple Southern California locations, Red Flag Warnings continue on Saturday. Residents in Santa Clarita can expect the temperature to reach 83 degrees today, with the humidity in the low teens, and 22 mph winds out of the northeast gusting to 33. Strong winds will continue through Saturday night but will taper off a bit Sunday, 18 to 22 mph gusting out of the northeast at 28 to 34.
Monday afternoon a strong offshore pressure gradient will begin growing, bringing very strong winds out of the northeast again, with the humidity in the low 20s and teens.
Wind speeds next week:
Monday afternoon: 24 mph gusting at 32
Monday night: 25 to 47 gusting at 37 to 62
Tuesday: 47 gusting at 63
Tuesday night: 29 to 41 gusting at 38 to 54
Wednesday: 18 to 26 gusting at 24 to 34
At least two large air tankers, 01 and 02, were flown in from Missoula on Friday to be available if needed by firefighters. Two Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) mapping aircraft are also on standby.
Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) aircraft.Red Flag Warnings, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Weather stations in Southern California experiencing Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Santa Clarita, California Wx forecast, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.
A firefighter ignites the American Elk prescribed fire in Wind Cave National Park, October 20, 2010. Photo by Bill Gabbert.
With only six days remaining in his presidency, Donald Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) January 14 establishing an Interagency Wildland Fire Subcabinet.
One of the reasons given for creating the organization was “federal wildland fire management lacks a single focal point of responsibility for policy leadership and accountability for cost controls,” and, “agencies do not adequately or effectively coordinate with each other at the policy level to reduce hazardous fuels and wildfire severity.”
Co-chaired by the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Interior, the other members will be Secretary of Energy, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Director of the National Economic Council.
The EO requires that the group submit a strategic plan within 180 days addressing a lengthy list of issues, emphasizing cross-boundary and interagency coordination and planning, including:
Developing and adopting additional hazardous fuels performance measures that go beyond the traditional output reporting of total acreage for fuel removal.
Develop fire suppression performance measures that demonstrate strategic use of high-cost human capital, equipment, and aircraft as opposed to traditional reliance on overwhelming force.
Developing and adopting new technologies to improve the safety, efficiency, and effectiveness of suppression operations.
Developing and adopting data-driven decision-making, allowing for better integration of wildland fire research and development into ground-level suppression operations and hazardous fuel mitigation.
Evaluating personnel policies to ensure that they allow for the year-round availability of a well-trained firefighting force at all levels.
Evaluate policies that deal with the fire safety of powerlines.
Examine how compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act may negatively affect hazardous fuel reduction projects.
Reduce unnecessary duplication by coordinating and consolidating existing wildland fire related councils, working groups, and other formal cross-agency initiatives, as appropriate.
“While I am proud of our progress to promote active management, reduce hazardous fuels, work across boundaries and increase the resiliency of our nation’s forests and grasslands, I believe more can be done,” said Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue. “With the establishment of a subcabinet dedicated exclusively to wildland fire management, we will be better equipped to prevent and fight wildfires, ensuring these national treasures will continue to be enjoyed by future generations of Americans.”
“Firefighter and civilian lives lost, as well as economic, social, and ecological impacts demonstrate a need to change,” said Tom Harbour, former National Director of Fire and Aviation Management for the U.S. Forest Service. “While I am confident the incoming Administration will display a thoughtful perspective on wildland fire, many of the actions described in the new Executive Order, even at this late date, have merit. Important questions remain, for example, how will the States engage in developing comprehensive solutions? President Trump has now given those of us engaged in wildland fire his ideas on how to improve. I am confident President Biden and his team will consider the new Executive Order, adjust as needed, and offer additional ideas about improving the wildland fire management system.”
Many of these goals appear to be laudable. It is interesting that they may be looking to downplay the importance of attacking new fires with overwhelming force.
There appears to be substantial overlap between this new subcabinet and the Wildland Fire Leadership Council which was established in April 2002. It was convened by the Secretaries of the Interior, Agriculture, Defense, and Homeland Security and is “dedicated to consistent implementation of wildland fire policies, goals, and management activities.”
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Robert, L., & Al.
A Type 1 Incident Management Team is being mobilized on a COVID-19 assignment.
Incident Management Team member gets vaccinated as she is being mobilized.
Pacific Northwest Type 1 Incident Management Team 3 led by Incident Commander Randy Johnson has been mobilized through FEMA Emergency Support Function 4 to support COVID-19 vaccination efforts for the Southwest Washington Health Services.
Katy O’Hara, Information Officer for the team, said, “The team will be providing command, logistics, operational, and public information support as mass vaccination efforts begin in the communities.”
The incident in the state of Washington is named “SW WA – COVID 19 Pandemic Vaccination 2020030901”. (I’m not sure how that’s going to look on the T-shirt.)
At least one of the IMT members received their first dose of the vaccine after being notified about the assignment. They will be eligible for the required second dose in four weeks. About two weeks after that, they will begin to get strong immunity.
Our take
All wildland firefighters, especially Incident Management Teams, crews, and individuals that could be mobilized this year, need to get vaccinated now. The government should put in them in the 1b category along with first responders and frontline essential workers. It takes about six weeks after the first dose of the Moderna vaccine before immunity approaches the 95 percent effectiveness seen in the phase three trials if the second dose is received at 28 days. (Edit: contractors also need access to the vaccine.)
The projects would be in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
Environmentalists have filed a notice of intent to sue the U.S government to block plans to build up to 11,000 miles of fuel breaks they contend would violate the Endangered Species Act in a misguided effort to slow the advance of wildfires in six Western states, the Associated Press reported.
On February 14, 2020 the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for Fuel Breaks in the Great Basin. It outlines the construction and maintenance of a system of up to 11,000 miles of fuel breaks within a 223 million acre area to aid in the control of wildfires in portions of Idaho, Oregon, Washington, California, Nevada, and Utah.
The Preferred Alternative outlined in the PEIS analyzes manual, chemical and mechanical treatments, including prescribed fire, seeding, and targeted grazing to construct and maintain a system of fuel breaks. These treatments would be implemented along roads and rights-of-way on BLM-administered lands to minimize new disturbance and wildlife habitat fragmentation and to maximize accessibility for wildland firefighters.
The Conair Group plans to retire all of their legacy L-188 and CV-580 air tankers and over the next two to three years replace them with De Havilland Canada DHC-8 Q400s.
In a statement, the company gave their rationale for making the change:
“Planes used to fight wildfires as airtankers are often older models and are flown into demanding environments, inevitably resulting in metal fatigue over time. In addition, aircraft designed to obsolete standards leads to increased risk of incidents, costly repairs, limited replacement parts, and ultimately time grounded from fighting fires. Conair’s strategic move towards a long-term vision includes replacing the company’s fleet of heavy legacy airtankers with the new Q400ATs.
“We evaluated 29 aircraft before selecting the Q400 for modification into an aerial firefighting tool. The unanimous opinion of our flight operations experts was that the Q400 exceeds all the Next Generation performance criteria within a maneuverable and stable platform.” says Jeff Berry, Director of Business Development at Conair. “The Q400AT is fast, fuel efficient, and tactically flexible, operating both initial attack as well as sustained support actions. The Q400 is still in production and has strong Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM) support from De Havilland Aircraft of Canada Limited (De Havilland Canada), guaranteeing availability of parts and servicing for years.”
The eleven Q400s, formerly owned by Flybe and now in Europe, will be delivered to Conair beginning this month.
In 2017 the Conair Group secured a deal to sell six Q400 Multi-Role aircraft converted to air tankers to France’s Securite Civile (Department of Civil Defence and Emergency Preparedness). These were new aircraft that Conair purchased from Bombardier which can be reconfigured in a few hours to carry passengers, hence the Multi-Role (MR) designation. The new aircraft are replacing France’s old S-2 air tankers.
One of Conair’s Q400s, a Q400AT not configured to carry passengers, was on contract in Queensland, Australia during the 2020/2021 summer bushfire season through December. This was the first time the state has had regular access to a large air tanker, rather than borrowing from New South Wales or Victoria. Tanker 141/Bomber 141 (C-FFQE) arrived in Bundaberg in August after departing from Abbotsford British Columbia and making fuel stops at Oakland, Honolulu, Majuro (Marshall Islands), Honiara (Solomon Islands), and Brisbane where it cleared customs.
T-141 (C-FFQEQ) Q400AT – Refueling at Majuro, Marshall Islands in August , 2020 while en route to Bundaberg, Queensland for the 2020-2021 bushfire season in Australia. Photo Credit Brendon Sutton.
In September, 2020, Jeff Berry, Manager of Business Development at Conair, said, “[The Q400AT] is a pure air tanker STC [supplemental type certificate], so we don’t have any of the residual plumbing, wiring, attachment points inside, or heavy duty flooring that you need for an MR, so it’s stripped down to be a pure tanker. And it gives us the maximum fuel load and the maximum retardant tank capacity. You get the full 10,000 liters [2,642 gallons]. The Q400AT is truly a ‘Green’ airtanker — it is incredibly fuel efficient burning only 58 percent of the fuel per hour while carrying 85 percent of the load of a typical type 1 airtanker.”
According to Wikipedia the Q400’s maximum cruise speed is 345 to 414 mph. It seems likely that the bolted-on external retardant tank would have a negative effect on the air speed and range. Out of the factory it is rated to haul up to 90 passengers.
File photo of Conair Air Tanker 42, a Convair 580, taxiing for takeoff at Whitehorse International Airport at Yukon, Canada. The aircraft was built in 1958. Photo by D. Cote, Yukon Fire Management.
Conair has been fighting fires for 51 years. In addition to the CV-580, Q400, and L-188, their fleet currently is comprised of air attack and bird dog aircraft (Cessna Caravan C208B and Turbo Commander TC-690A), amphibious scooping air tankers (CL215T and Air Tractor AT802A), and land-based air tankers (Avro RJ85 and Air Tractor AT 802).
The manufacture date of the Convair 580 in the photo was corrected to show it was 1958, not 1981.
Map showing locations of wildfires in Washington that were reported to the National Interagency Fire Center in 2020.
Legislation being introduced in the state of Washington requests additional funding to beef up their fire suppression capability on the ground and in the air.
The number of acres burned in wildfires last year in the state, 812,000, was more than four times the average in the 2000s. In eastern Washington, 80 percent of the buildings were destroyed by the Babb-Malden Fire in September, 2020. The number of acres blackened in Oregon last year, just across the border, was the second highest ever recorded.
Babb-Malden Fire in eastern Washington, September, 2020. Whitman County Sheriff photo.
The bill introduced earlier this week in Washington, HB 1168, would appropriate $125 million for the Department of Natural Resources to create for the first time a dedicated fund to suppress and mitigate wildfires over the next two-year budget period.
A similar bill was introduced last year but failed to pass, possibly because it also stipulated that a portion of the funds would be raised by establishing a surtax on home insurance premiums. This latest version leaves it up to the legislators to come up with a source for the money.
For two of the last three years, Washington had the worst air quality in the world due to smoke from wildfires.
The requested funds can be sorted into four categories:
Wildfire Response — $75.2 million
The bill would create positions for 100 more firefighters, adding three 20-person hand crews, 20 dozer operators, and two 10-person “post-release” crews comprised of formerly incarcerated persons who served on state fire response crews.
The bill would also allow the purchase of two intelligence gathering fixed wing aircraft to be used on fires. Their ten very old UH-1H Huey helicopters would receive upgrades of some systems and night-flying capabilities. Washington does not own any air tankers, but in 2020 they had approximately six privately owned single engine air tankers (SEATS) on contract.
Forest Restoration — $31.4 million
This would fully fund and accelerate the DNR’s 20-Year Forest Health Strategic Plan, which calls for restoring natural wildfire resistance to 1.25 million acres of forest.
Workforce Development — $5.9 million
Provide career pathways for foresters, firefighters and mill workers
Community Resilience — $12.6 million
Make investments at the home, neighborhood, and community levels to reduce wildfire risk and protect communities. Including investments in defensive strategies at the community level such as fuel breaks, prescribed fire, and creating defensible green space, plus direct assistance to home owners to secure their property and neighborhood with programs like FireWise.
In the video below Commissioner of Public Lands Hilary Franz and Rep. Larry Springer (D-Kirkland) joined experts and advocacy leaders from across the state to unveil the just-introduced bill. The discussion about fire begins at 6:00.
Map showing heat detected by satellites on wildfires in Washington at 4:18 p.m. PDT September 8, 2020.
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