The fire weather in southern California for Tuesday night through Thursday, October 29-31, is predicted to be the most severe so far this year. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are possible in the mountains and foothills and relative humidity could drop into the single digits.
In areas of northern California a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 8 a.m. PDT Tuesday until 4 p.m. PDT Wednesday. The wind is expected to be out of the north or northeast at 15 to 35 mph with gusts of 35 to 60 mph, locally higher in canyons and exposed ridges.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
The fire threat for four areas in southern California on October 24 and 25 is described as “Moderate”. This example is for the Los Angeles and Ventura areas, showing Threat Level, Wind Strength, and Fuel Moisture on Thursday October 24.
A wildland fire danger forecasting tool called the Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTI) is categorizing the fire threat from the strong winds predicted for Thursday and Friday of this week in southern California as “Moderate”. This includes Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange County, Inland Empire, and San Diego. The Santa Barbara area is shown as “no rating” for this week. Most other tools for predicting fire danger would use a stronger adjective for the predicted conditions.
The SAWTI uses a predictive model that includes wind strength, dead fuel moisture, live fuel moisture, atmospheric moisture, and the greenness of annual grasses to create a daily threat assessment of the fuel conditions across Southern California. The output is then compared to climatological data and historical fire occurrence to establish the index rating. It does not assess conditions in the central or northern part of the state.
The SAWTI is a product of the US Forest Service and Predictive Services, according to the website dedicated to the tool. The site does not specify which of the numerous Predictive Services and Forest Service offices are involved.
Red Flag Warnings, produced at 6:30 a.m. PDT October 23, 2019. Times are CDT.
For northern California the forecast on Thursday and Friday is for north to northeast winds of 15 to 30 mph gusting at 35 to 45 with humidity in the teens. For southern California: northeast winds of 20 to 40 gusting up to 65 with humidity in the single digits. These predicted numbers vary depending on the exact location.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
Elevated wildfire danger is in the forecast for portions of northern and southern California on Wednesday, Thursday, and in southern California, into Friday. Most of the Fire Weather Watch areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings.
The extreme fire danger in northern California will begin Thursday while the southern California areas will start on Friday.
North or northeast winds at 15 to 20 mph gusting at 30 to 40 with relative humidities in the teens are predicted for the areas identified on the map in northern California. The areas in the south should receive 25 to 35 mph winds out of the north or northeast gusting at 50 to 60 with single digit humidity.
This weekend could bring another period of dry and windy conditions.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
After winds decrease this morning, another round of offshore winds is expected Thursday and Friday. This will be a stronger event with wind gusts of 60 mph possible. It will be extremely hot and dry with highs near 100 and min RH as low as 3%. Now is the time to prepare!
Due to upcoming wind events and drying fuels, we have changed our fire danger level to EXTREME, which means no building, maintaining, attending or using a fire, campfire, or stove fire in all of the national forest. https://t.co/hChH3MQe1Ypic.twitter.com/JKBaM5Lnon
After 20 years on the frontline fighting wildfires across the nation, Boise State alumnus and men’s rugby coach Matt Dutton was ready for a change. In 2014, Dutton and his family moved to Boise and he took a job in training and development with the National Interagency Fire Center, recruiting and teaching firefighters to become drone pilots in the center’s unmanned aerial systems (UAS) program.
A story about the Camp Fire that destroyed the city of Paradise, California
Camp Fire, as it began to burn into Paradise, Calif. LANDSAT 8 image at 10:45 a.m. PT, Nov. 8, 2018. Processed by Zeke Lunder, Deer Creek Resources, Chico, Calif.
Netflix has released a trailer for “Fire in Paradise”, a documentary about the Camp Fire that killed 85 people and destroyed nearly 14,000 homes after it started under a PG&E power line at about 6:30 a.m. on November 8, 2018. Pushed by strong winds, within hours the fire raged through Paradise, California becoming the deadliest and most destructive wildfire in the state’s history. The documentary includes firsthand footage of the fire and interviews with dispatchers, first responders and survivors.
The 39-minute film directed by Drea Cooper and Zackary Canepari will be available for streaming on Netflix November 1, a week before the one year anniversary of the disaster. It won the Audience Award for Best Short Film at the Hamptons International Film Festival.
“Rebuilding Paradise” directed by Ron Howard for National Geographic is still under development. It will follow the residents, first responders, and volunteers helping to rebuild the town over the course of a year.
