This is the forecast for vertically integrated wildfire smoke at 5 p.m. MDT July 11, 2021.
Smoke forecast July 11, 2021
Category: Uncategorized
Smoke forecast, Friday night July 9, 2021
This is the forecast for the distribution of vertically integrated wildfire smoke at 10 p.m. MDT July 9, 2021; created at 4 p.m. MDT July 9.
Smoke forecast and Red Flag Warnings, July 5, 2021
Congress solicits advice on wildland fire research
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized3 Comments on Congress solicits advice on wildland fire research 
In a hearing Tuesday before the House of Representatives Science, Space, and Technology Committee the topic was “The state of federal wildland fire science: examining opportunities for further research and coordination.” And just as promised, many topics were recommended for additional development and research.
There were four witnesses:
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- Dr. Craig B. Clements, San Jose State University
- Dr. Jessica McCarty, Miami University
- George Geissler, Washington DNR
- Fire Chief Erik Litzenberg (Ret), International Association of Fire Chiefs
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If you don’t have two and a half hours to watch the video below of the entire hearing, you can watch the prepared five-minute presentations of the four witnesses and get a good idea of the topics that were discussed. They begin at 26:30.
I made a list of the topics that were mentioned as needing more research:
- Better systems for fire detection and modeling.
- Systems for tracking the real time location of firefighters and other resources.
- Increase the budget for the Joint Fire Science Program, which was cut in half during the last four years.
- Fire weather.
- Deploy on fires what would be the equivalent of hurricane hunter aircraft for real time monitoring of fires and weather at fires.
- Treat fire weather the same as other severe weather phenomena.
- Continuous real time high resolution imagery of fires.
- Operational community-based coupled fire atmosphere models.
- Better geospatial and temporal resolution for monitoring fires.
- Improved and standardized warning system for fires.
If you would like to see another point of view, check out a July 1 interview with Mark Finney by Saul Elbein in The Hill. Mr. Finney is a Research Forester with the Missoula Fire Sciences Laboratory. Early in the piece Mr. Finney said more prescribed fire was needed.
Here is an excerpt from the article:
Equilibrium: What do you feel is missing from an approach centered on suppressing big fires?
Finney: The issue is, reactive management rarely works. My analogy is health care — if all health care was emergency rooms and ambulances, you’d have a health care disaster on your hands.
Because there’d be no preventive care. You’d have ambulances everywhere, people getting rushed off. But by the time you have emergency care, it’s too late.
People get engaged in looking for better satellites or mapping or sensors thinking: If we get better at reacting, we’ll solve the problem.
But that’s not true. If nature picks the time, place and conditions to start a fire, and you run around and deal — then you’re a moron. You’re just playing defense. You can’t win any contest by playing defense.
Above normal wildfire activity predicted in the Northwest for July and August
As we enter what are usually two of the busiest months of the wildland fire season in the West, the forecast for wildland fire potential issued July 1 by the National Interagency Fire Center predicts that California and virtually the entire northwest one-quarter of the United States will have above normal fire potential in July and August.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
- An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
- Additional NIFC monthly graphical outlooks;
- NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
- Drought Monitor;
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“Drought expanded and intensified over the West with more than 90% of the West now in drought. More than half of the West is in the highest two categories of drought. Numerous all-time record high temperatures were set in the Pacific Northwest, northern Great Basin, and Northern Rockies at the end of June as part of a historical heat wave. The first surge of monsoonal moisture arrived in the Southwest, Colorado, and southern Great Basin during the last few days of June.
“Climate outlooks indicate warmer than normal conditions are likely for much of the CONUS, especially the West, through summer. Much of the Rockies and the northern half of the West are also likely to have drier than normal conditions through September. Near normal precipitation is likely with the Southwest Monsoon in July, which should help alleviate drought conditions and significant fire activity, but drought is likely to expand and intensify across much of the West through the summer.
“Much of the Southern Area is likely to have below normal significant fire potential through the summer with mostly near normal significant fire potential in Eastern Area and Alaska into fall. Above normal significant fire potential is likely to remain in portions of northern Minnesota into August.
“Above normal significant fire potential will expand northward into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain Geographic Areas through August with areas closer to the monsoon likely returning to near normal significant fire potential in July and August. Most of the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and northern Great Basin are expected to have above normal significant fire potential in July and August with areas beginning to return to normal significant fire potential in September and October. Most of the mountains and foothills in California are forecast to have above normal significant fire potential through September with areas prone to offshore winds retaining above normal potential through October. Leeside locations, saddles, and divides in Hawaii are likely to have above normal significant fire potential into October.”
Federal firefighters to receive retention pay this year
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized16 Comments on Federal firefighters to receive retention pay this year The Administration to work with Congress on longer-term improvements in pay, benefits, and work-life reforms
The White House released a statement today in which several improvements are outlined to improve wildfire preparedness and pay for federal wildland firefighters.
Some are short-term, such as retention pay which may only be in effect this year, but the time frame is not clear. Permanent firefighters working on the front lines up to a GS-9 level will receive up to a 10 percent retention incentive and temporary workers who commit to continue this season would receive a $1,000 Spot/Star Award this year.
The statement also commits the Administration to work with Congress on longer-term improvements in pay, benefits, and work-life reforms.
Many of the initiatives outlined in the statement could, if followed up on, result in significant improvements for Federal firefighters. This is a great step in the right direction. Most of it, the long-term issues anyway, can’t happen unless Congress can be persuaded to assist in this effort to enhance our homeland security.
The document also says, “Increase aviation capacity to support immediate response”. Unfortunately it uses the often repeated number of “up to 36” when describing the air tanker fleet. That is misleading, at best. It implies that they are sitting on a ramp ready to attack wildfires. And “up to” could mean anywhere from zero to 36. Give us an actual, accurate number.
There are 18 large air tankers on exclusive use contracts. This year, temporarily, there will be an additional 8 hired on a shorter term “surge” basis. Others may or may not be available on a more expensive Call When Needed basis, but without any guarantee that they are airworthy and have mechanics and flight crews ready to respond to a fire.
On March 23 Fire Aviation called for a large increase in the numbers of aviation resources:
Congress needs to appropriate enough funding to have 40 large air tankers on exclusive use contracts.
Several years ago the number of the largest helicopters on Exclusive Use contracts, Type 1, were cut from 34 to 28. This number needs to be increased to 50.
Below is the entire statement from the White House.
In addition to the statement, the White House released the video below about wildfire preparedness. It begins at 35:00. He mentioned the speech he delivered in 2013 at the memorial service for the 19 Granite Mountain Hotshots who were killed on a fire. This is extraordinary — the President hosting a 40-minute public event devoted to wildland fire.
The National Interagency Fire Center forecast predicts above normal fire potential for much of the West, in large part driven by severe drought conditions that are impacting nearly ninety percent of the region. Since 2015, the United States has experienced, on average, roughly 100 more large wildfires every year than the year before – and this wildfire season is already outpacing last season in terms of the number of large fires to date. Climate change is driving the devastating intersection of extreme heat, drought, and wildland fire danger across the United States. Decades of shifting development patterns, land and fire management decisions, and climate change have resulted in wildfires that move with a speed and intensity previously unseen. This has created conditions in which wildfires overwhelm response capabilities, resulting in billions of dollars in economic losses, damage to natural resources, devastation to communities, and the tragic loss of human life.
In preparation for this wildfire season, the Biden Administration has convened a series of meetings on wildfire preparedness and prevention efforts to determine what more can be done to prepare for and prevent wildfires. President Biden met last week with FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell and his White House Homeland preparedness team to discuss ongoing efforts to prevent, prepare for and respond to extreme weather events and to underscore the importance of prompt delivery of support to communities in need.
Today, President Biden and Vice President Harris will meet with Governors from Western states, Cabinet officials and private sector partners to discuss specific actions the public and private sector are each taking to strengthen prevention, preparedness, mitigation, and response efforts – and to protect communities across our country from wildfires and their devastating impacts. During today’s meeting, the President will direct a number of actions, in close coordination with State and local governments and the private sector, to ensure the Federal Government can most effectively protect public safety and deliver assistance to our people in times of urgent need.
The President will also highlight the need to invest in wildfire prevention and risk mitigation efforts, including the nearly $50 billion in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Framework.
The Biden-Harris Administration Is Taking Action to Respond to Wildfires this Year:
Building a More Responsive and Resilient Wildland Firefighting Workforce
Bolster firefighter pay. Firefighters must be fairly paid for the grueling work they are willing to take on. From supporting COVID-19 efforts to fighting wildfires, our Federal wildland firefighters have been on nearly nonstop deployments since January 2020. That is why today we are announcing that we are fulfilling the President’s commitment that firefighters will not make less than $15 an hour this year. In addition, permanent firefighters working on the front lines paid at up to a GS-9 level will receive up to a 10 percent retention incentive and temporary workers who commit to continue this season would receive a $1000 Spot/Star Award this year. These are short-term solutions to support our Federal wildland firefighters, especially due to the multiple impacts of COVID and climate change this year. The Administration will work with Congress on longer-term much needed compensation, benefit, and work-life balance reforms for Federal wildland firefighters.
Extend hiring of temporary firefighters to ensure effective response throughout this year’s fire season. To mitigate concerns about Federal firefighter capacity this year, today we are announcing that the Office of Personnel Management (OPM) has approved an exemption to extend seasonal Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of Interior (DOI) wildland fire employees to work additional hours beyond their term. Because of climate change, wildland firefighting is no longer a seasonal endeavor. Fires are burning later into the season and temporary employees often reach their limited hours earlier in the year. This week, OPM also approved an extension of the Forest Service’s (USFS) direct hire authority for wildland firefighters and support personnel. These proactive personnel management actions will help sustain the Nation’s vital Federal wildland firefighting capacity. We also recognize the need for a sustainable long-term staffing approach into the future that offers more permanent, stable employment.
Continue transition to a more permanent firefighting workforce. With fire seasons turning into fire years, it is imperative to have a year-round workforce that is available to respond at any time, that is supported and equitably compensated, and is available to undertake preventive actions like hazardous fuels management treatments during periods of low fire activity. DOI has committed to hiring 210 new employees and converting 575 employees from career seasonal to full-time employees during this fiscal year. Additionally, DOI is providing funding for 42 new tribal positions and the conversion of 153 tribal positions from career seasonal to full-time employees to support wildfire response. USFS will continue to prioritize expanding its permanent wildland firefighting workforce.
Improving Wildfire Response Capabilities
Continue reading “Federal firefighters to receive retention pay this year”
