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Increasingly frequent and severe wildfires causing a firefighting aircraft boom

Hunter BasslerDecember 2, 2024December 3, 2024Prevention, Research, Safety, WildfireLeave a comment

Extreme wildfire events are becoming more frequent and intense, satellite imagery has shown.

Six of the past seven years have been among the most extreme wildfire years on record, according to research from Australia’s University of Tasmania. The frequency of extreme wildfire events has also more than doubled between 2003 and 2023.

The research “provides concrete evidence of a worrying trend,” according to lead researcher Dr. Calum Cunningham.

A worrying trend for the world’s living beings is seemingly an economic opportunity for the global firefighting aircraft market, a new report from the Business Research Company said.

File photo of an Air Tractor 802 Fire Boss operated by Conair. Not necessarily the aircraft involved in the incident. — File photo of an Air Tractor 802 Fire Boss operated by Conair.

The market has “grown strongly” in recent years, with an increase from $8.77 billion in 2023 to $9.57 billion in 2024. The market is expected to grow to $13.42 by 2028 at a compound annual growth rate of 8.8%.

“The growth in the forecast period can be attributed to climate change impact on wildfires, development of next-generation fire retardants, increased focus on early detection, global expansion of wildland-urban interfaces, and government preparedness investments,” the report said. “Major trends in the forecast period include enhanced remote sensing technologies, integration of drone technology, advancements in aerial firefighting technologies, the growing importance of aerial firefighting services, and global collaboration for aerial firefighting resources.”

One of the major market trends identified in the report was the rise of autonomous aerial firefighting technology, including the autonomous MK2 developed by California-based company Rain. The autonomous helicopter is reportedly designed to transport around 30 gallons of payload to a fire and can perform all standard helicopter flight phases controlled by a remote operator.

A similar helicopter from Lockheed Martin was recently demonstrated to an audience of NASA, FEMA, and wildland firefighting officials. The company claimed the aircraft could be commanded solely on a tablet from 300 miles away and extinguish fires as small as 12 inches in diameter.

READ MORE: Self-driving aircraft may soon head to a wildfire near you

Another market driver the report found is rising global urbanization. The World Bank reported around 56% of the world’s total population lives in urban areas as of 2023, and the global urban population is expected to reach 6 billion by 2045. This, coupled with the forecast surge in the number of wildfires, is expected to drive the growth of the firefighting aircraft market.

The region with the largest share of the firefighting aircraft market was reportedly Asia-Pacific, but North America is expected to be the fastest-growing region over the coming years.

Self-driving aircraft may soon head to a wildfire near you

Hunter BasslerNovember 21, 2024Research, WildfireLeave a comment

An audience of NASA, FEMA, and wildland firefighting officials recently witnessed the wildfire suppression capabilities of a reportedly “autonomous” Black Hawk helicopter.

Sikorsky, a Lockheed Martin company, partnered with autonomous aerial wildfire containment developer Rain to demonstrate the takeoff, wildfire identification, and water-drop accuracy capabilities of the helicopter.

Lockheed Martin originally announced the helicopter’s development in October, claiming the aircraft could be commanded solely on a tablet from 300 miles away.

“The MATRIX system is unique because it’s not a simple flight director following a planned route. Instead, the system acts fully independently, reacting to the dynamic combat environment to avoid threats, optimize routing, and execute emergency procedures if necessary,” the company said in an Oct. 17 release.

The recent 30-minute flight demonstration allowed officials to use the command tablet to take off, find the fire, and drop water from a Bambi Bucket 60 feet beneath the aircraft, the company said. The water drops reportedly extinguished 12-inch diameter propane-fueled fire rings to demonstrate the precision of the aircraft’s targeting capability.

“This technology that we used to think of as being on the horizon is here now, no longer just a figment of our imagination,” said Genevieve Biggs, director of the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation’s Wildfire Resilience Initiative and Special Projects program.

Lockheed Martin isn’t the only organization developing the once-on-the-horizon tech.

Sustainable Aviation Foundation President Brien Seeley recently published a paper on the feasibility and technical details of autonomous aerial fire-fighting (AAF) systems, including eTankers, building small AAF airparks, and autonomous payload carts for loading.

Milrem Robotics partnered with foam extinguishing technology specialist InnoVfoam to develop a line of Multiscope Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGVs) for firefighter use, including hose use, post-fire extinguishing, and critical supply transport.

The Los Angeles City Fire Department has used a human-controlled water hose tank robot called Robotics Systems 3 (RS3) during fires in buildings with collapsing rooms since at least 2021, the department told Scientific American.

Credit: Los Angeles City Fire Department

Some scientists, however, are skeptical of just how useful autonomous technology would be to the wildland firefighting force at large. Neil Sahota, an inventor who advises the United Nations on artificial intelligence issues, told Scientific American doubts communities would be willing to pay more than six figures for robots designed for very specific needs, especially for those that still struggle with mobility.

“The economies of scale aren’t quite the same as [for] mass manufacturing,” he said. “We don’t have enough firefighters as it is … With climate change, we’re already at the breaking point.”

Climate change made wildfires extremely more likely in Canada, Greece, and South America

Hunter BasslerNovember 19, 2024November 19, 2024Canada, Greece, Research, South America, WildfireLeave a comment

Extreme wildfire events made the 2023-24 fire season record-breaking for numerous reasons: Canada’s largest wildfire ever spewing unprecedented emissions, deadly fast-moving fires in Hawaii and Chile, and widespread fires throughout South America.

The season’s historic nature made it the perfect case study for the first-ever State of Wildfires report, a collaboration of over 40 researchers from across the world working to understand how human-driven climate change, through the burning of fossil fuels, is influencing wildfire trends. Stakeholders hope the potentially yearly report will help bridge the gap between researchers and fire agencies.

“If it was just academics using data, it could lead to a lot of amazing research, but at the moment it’s this really good record for fire agencies and communities to tap into and really understand what happened over the last year,” said Dr. Sarah Harris, co-author of the paper and manager of research and development at Australia’s Country Fire Authority. “Local fires are put in the context of climate change in the report, so you get to learn more about how climate change is playing a role.”

The researchers found that climate change increased anomalies in burned areas by up to 18%, 40%, and 50% in Greece, Canada, and western Amazonia, respectively. They also found that while overall burned area was slightly below average from previous seasons, fire carbon emissions were 16% above average, driven by record emissions from Canada’s boreal forests that were over nine times the average.

“Forest firefighters from the Armed Forces carry out NIGHT PATROLS to combat the fire in the Pantanal area, which includes the San Matías – Las Petas route, in the department of Santa Cruz” – Bolivia Ministry of Defense

Climate change reportedly made extreme fire seasons at least 3.6 times more likely in Canada and at least 20 times more likely in Amazonia.

“By the end of the century, events of similar magnitude to 2023 in Canada are projected to occur 6.3–10.8 times more frequently under a medium–high emission scenario,” the report said.

The probability of fires in Canada and Greece increased primarily due to a combination of high levels of fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels. In contrast, areas with lower fuel loads and higher direct fire suppression experienced weaker burned-area anomalies.

Meanwhile, increases in wildfire frequency and severity in Amazonia constitute a “major event of global relevance” for numerous reasons, according to the researchers. Those reasons include severe air quality degradation, widespread environmental degradation, and broad socioeconomic and health impacts.

“The trend in Amazonas, among the most pristine parts of Amazonia, contrasts with other states of Brazil such as Mato Grosso and Pará, where deforestation rates and deforestation-related fires have fallen since their peak during the early 2000s,” the report said. “The anomalous fire activity and carbon emissions in the State of Amazonas during the 2023–2024 fire season (but not other states of Brazil) thus appear to be consistent with the emerging pattern of increased fire in the region.”

The researchers said in all major focal events the report studied, extremely burned areas were driven by the synchronized critical factors of weather, fuel moisture, and fuel abundance. That fact underscores the reality that no single bioclimatic factor can be blamed for severe fires.

The high-emission scenarios the researchers studied lead to significantly increased likelihoods of major fire events like those seen during the 2023-24 fire season. However, strong climate change mitigation efforts can avoid significant portions of increased risk, as emphasized by the researchers’ findings.

Harris, who is also a board member of the International Association of Wildland Fire, said stakeholders hope the scope of the report is expanded even further to include more communities and local agencies.

“The plan going forward is broadening the scope of the regional liaisons to have a rotating panel and ensure we have diversity in there, and making sure not just diverse people, but also academic and fire agencies’ relationships are maintained,” Harris said. “Making sure we reach out to smaller areas to make sure the report is capturing their experiences.”

Numerous late-season wildfires in Northeast U.S. an omen of things to come

Hunter BasslerNovember 12, 2024Smoke, WildfireLeave a comment

Unprecedented levels of drought and annual increases in fire weather conditions are triggering a growing trend of fire danger throughout the Northeast United States, some of which was recently seen in New Jersey and New York.

Fire crews in New Jersey have been fighting the Jennings Creek Fire since Sunday, according to the state’s forest fire service. The wildfire has burned 3,500 acres and sits at 20% containment, but crews expect the fire to continue burning for days until it reaches containment lines.

Smoke-covered areas of New York City after a fire ignited in Brooklyn’s Prospect Park over the weekend. The fire has since been extinguished and officials are assessing the damage.

The National Weather Service issued a Special Weather Statement for the area regarding elevated risk of fire spread on Tuesday, with gusts up to 35 mph and low humidity expected into the evening. New Jersey prohibited all fires throughout the state in response to the statement, while New York City Mayor Eric Adams banned all grilling within parks.

Drought played an integral role in the fires’ spread, with NOAA calling the Fall 2024 drought “historic” in a tweet on Oct. 31.

“48 states have some drought, the most in Drought Monitor history,” NOAA said. “87.2% of the Lower 48 and 73.2% of the US are Abnormally Dry (D0) or in drought, both Drought Monitor records.”

People living throughout the Northeast U.S. can expect more fire weather in the future driven by human-induced climate change through the burning of fossil fuels, according to climate change research institute Climate Central.

The organization recently analyzed data from 476 weather stations over the last 51 years to find how climate change is affecting fire weather across the nation.

Most eastern areas in the analysis saw increases in annual fire weather days since 1973, with around 3o% of areas seeing no change or a decrease. A specific band stretching from coastal Maine through the Northeast experienced the greatest increases in annual fire weather days, namely New York and New Jersey.

“Fire weather — dry, windy, warm conditions that allow wildfires to spread — is becoming more common in the Northeast,” the organization recently tweeted. “Parts of northern New Jersey and coastal New York are experiencing at least 10 additional days of fire weather annually vs. the 1970s.”

Wildfire suppressants dumped nearly a million pounds of toxic metals into the West U.S.

Hunter BasslerNovember 1, 2024Research, Wildfire4 Comments

Companies supplying the USFS with wildfire suppressants may have been hiding various heavy metals present in their formula, according to an ongoing study.

Materials used in suppressants, including fire retardants, water enhancers, and foams, all have to be approved by the U.S. Forest Service, according to Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering Daniel McCurry, a co-author of the study. However, the companies supplying the suppressants don’t have to disclose up to 20% of their product formulas, keeping them “trade secrets” under law.

Researchers from the USC’s Sonny Astani Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering discovered much of the “trade secrets” could be toxic heavy metals. The team tested numerous wildfire suppressants and found they have released ~850,000 pounds of toxic metals into the environment in the Western United States from 2009-2021.

“Increased metals content in soils and surface waters at the wildland-urban interface has been observed after wildfires but has primarily been attributed to ash deposition or anthropogenic impact from nearby urban areas,” an introductory paper into the ongoing research said. ” In this study, metal concentrations in several fire suppression products (some approved by the U.S. Forest Service, and some marketed for consumer use) were quantified to evaluate whether these products could contribute to increased metal concentrations observed in the environment postfire.”

2019 retardant drop, photo by Kari Greer

Researchers estimated the heavy metal amounts by purchasing the fire suppressant materials themselves and used equipment called inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometers. They found several contaminants in the materials, including:

vanadium
chromium
manganese
copper
arsenic
cadmium
antimony
barium
thallium
lead

They estimated the quantity of heavy metals that have been dropped in the Western U.S. over the last decade by using contaminant measurements and publicly available data on suppressant application rates.

The researchers concluded that at least 8 of the contaminants were present at concentrations above EPA drinking water contaminant levels and that 1 million gallons of dropped retardant later entered surface waters.

Additionally, a clear version of the pinkish-red material often seen in fire retardant air drops called “Phos-Chek LC-95 W” was found to have the greatest amount of heavy metals. Researchers even went as far as to note the material could be classified as “hazardous waste” under federal and California regulations.

“I think what surprised me most was the array of metals we found,” said the study’s lead author, Environmental Engineering PhD student Marella Schammel.

“Some of them make sense as they’re used as corrosion inhibitors (chromium and cadmium) or are known contaminants in phosphate ores (arsenic, among others) used in the active ingredient of the retardant. But others, like vanadium – which there’s a ton of in Phos-Chek – were definitely unexpected.”

Researchers will continue studying how the toxic materials interacted with the environment by directly testing soil and waterways prior to and after the wildfire season.

Air Tanker 41, a BAe-146, drops retardant. BLM photo.

Wildfires and smoke are becoming more deadly around the world, research shows

Hunter BasslerOctober 21, 2024Research, Smoke, Wildfire

Two recently released pieces of research paint a worrying picture of future wildland firefighting efforts: wildfires are burning more acreage, and wildfire smoke killing thousands more people than it previously did.

Both research studies, published Monday in the Nature Climate Change scientific journal, point to future challenges land management agencies will have to face as climate change creates hotter and more volatile conditions.

“The rate at which climate change impacts on wildfires is increasing every year,” Professor Wim Thiery, a co-author of the smoke study, told The Natural History Museum of London. “As we witness increasingly destructive fire seasons worldwide, it is essential that we not only adapt our policies to better manage fires, but also address the underlying causes of climate change.”

The first study looked into how climate change affects regional burned area patterns and found global burned area increases.

Simulations found climate change increased global burned area by 15.8% between 2003 and 2019, along with a 22% increase in the probability of experiencing months with above-average totals of burned area. Burned area also increased 0.22% per year globally, with the largest increase found in central Australia.

As wildfires burn more land, and average temperatures around the world continue to increase, so do deaths from air pollution from the flames’ smoke, according to researchers from the second study.

Researchers used “well-tested fire-vegetation” models to attribute global human mortality from PM2.5 emissions from wildfires to climate change. The models estimated around 10,000 more people died from wildfire smoke in the 2010s compared with the 1960s.

“Of the 46,401 (1960s) to 98,748 (2010s) annual fire PM_2.5 mortalities, 669 (1.2%, 1960s) to 12,566 (12.8%, 2010s) were attributed to climate change,” the researchers said. “The most substantial influence of climate change on fire mortality occurred in South America, Australia and Europe, coinciding with decreased relative humidity and in boreal forests with increased air temperature.”

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