Prediction for gusts over 60 mph Monday night and Tuesday
Weather forecast for the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles, January 18 through 20, 2021. NWS.
Conditions in Southern California are setting up for what is being called “the strongest wind event of the season.” Red Flag Warnings are in effect in the greater Los Angeles area from Monday evening to 4 a.m. Wednesday. Forecasters are predicting strong damaging winds, with gusts to 60 mph that could blow down large objects such as trees and power lines.
The forecast for the Santa Clarita area north of Los Angeles calls for sustained winds Monday night of 22 to 41 mph gusting at 32 to 61 mph, with the strongest gusts after midnight. On Tuesday winds will continue to gust around 60 and then taper off Tuesday night to the 40s. During daylight hours the relative humidity will be in the low 20s through Wednesday.
This could lead to large wildland fires that are very resistant to control.
Let’s be careful out there.
Red Flag Warnings in California, Jan. 18, 2021. NWS.Weather stations with Red Flag (red) and those flirting with red flag conditions (yellow), at 1:06 p.m. PST, Jan. 18, 2021. NWS.
A wildland firefighter has produced an eight-minute video enthusiastically laying out what she sees as the pros and cons of the job.
Ronni Ocampo describes herself on YouTube:
I’m here to showcase all aspects of my true passion, wildland firefighting. This channel is a place where I want to serve those who serve their communities by providing fitness, nutrition, fire education, inspiration and discuss mental health to the fire world.
On June 28, 2020 in the first of 19 videos she has posted, Mrs. Ocampo explained that she was five months pregnant and about to be a first-time mom.
The winds are going to be breezy to very strong, off and on through Thursday
Hot-Dry-Windy forecast for Southern California, January 16, 2021
After record high temperatures were set Friday in multiple Southern California locations, Red Flag Warnings continue on Saturday. Residents in Santa Clarita can expect the temperature to reach 83 degrees today, with the humidity in the low teens, and 22 mph winds out of the northeast gusting to 33. Strong winds will continue through Saturday night but will taper off a bit Sunday, 18 to 22 mph gusting out of the northeast at 28 to 34.
Monday afternoon a strong offshore pressure gradient will begin growing, bringing very strong winds out of the northeast again, with the humidity in the low 20s and teens.
Wind speeds next week:
Monday afternoon: 24 mph gusting at 32
Monday night: 25 to 47 gusting at 37 to 62
Tuesday: 47 gusting at 63
Tuesday night: 29 to 41 gusting at 38 to 54
Wednesday: 18 to 26 gusting at 24 to 34
At least two large air tankers, 01 and 02, were flown in from Missoula on Friday to be available if needed by firefighters. Two Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) mapping aircraft are also on standby.
Fire Integrated Real-Time Intelligence System (FIRIS) aircraft.Red Flag Warnings, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Weather stations in Southern California experiencing Red Flag or near Red Flag conditions, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.Santa Clarita, California Wx forecast, January 16, 2021. National Weather Service.
A firefighter ignites the American Elk prescribed fire in Wind Cave National Park, October 20, 2010. Photo by Bill Gabbert.
With only six days remaining in his presidency, Donald Trump signed an Executive Order (EO) January 14 establishing an Interagency Wildland Fire Subcabinet.
One of the reasons given for creating the organization was “federal wildland fire management lacks a single focal point of responsibility for policy leadership and accountability for cost controls,” and, “agencies do not adequately or effectively coordinate with each other at the policy level to reduce hazardous fuels and wildfire severity.”
Co-chaired by the Secretaries of Agriculture and the Interior, the other members will be Secretary of Energy, the Secretary of Homeland Security, the Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality, the Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, and the Director of the National Economic Council.
The EO requires that the group submit a strategic plan within 180 days addressing a lengthy list of issues, emphasizing cross-boundary and interagency coordination and planning, including:
Developing and adopting additional hazardous fuels performance measures that go beyond the traditional output reporting of total acreage for fuel removal.
Develop fire suppression performance measures that demonstrate strategic use of high-cost human capital, equipment, and aircraft as opposed to traditional reliance on overwhelming force.
Developing and adopting new technologies to improve the safety, efficiency, and effectiveness of suppression operations.
Developing and adopting data-driven decision-making, allowing for better integration of wildland fire research and development into ground-level suppression operations and hazardous fuel mitigation.
Evaluating personnel policies to ensure that they allow for the year-round availability of a well-trained firefighting force at all levels.
Evaluate policies that deal with the fire safety of powerlines.
Examine how compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act may negatively affect hazardous fuel reduction projects.
Reduce unnecessary duplication by coordinating and consolidating existing wildland fire related councils, working groups, and other formal cross-agency initiatives, as appropriate.
“While I am proud of our progress to promote active management, reduce hazardous fuels, work across boundaries and increase the resiliency of our nation’s forests and grasslands, I believe more can be done,” said Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue. “With the establishment of a subcabinet dedicated exclusively to wildland fire management, we will be better equipped to prevent and fight wildfires, ensuring these national treasures will continue to be enjoyed by future generations of Americans.”
“Firefighter and civilian lives lost, as well as economic, social, and ecological impacts demonstrate a need to change,” said Tom Harbour, former National Director of Fire and Aviation Management for the U.S. Forest Service. “While I am confident the incoming Administration will display a thoughtful perspective on wildland fire, many of the actions described in the new Executive Order, even at this late date, have merit. Important questions remain, for example, how will the States engage in developing comprehensive solutions? President Trump has now given those of us engaged in wildland fire his ideas on how to improve. I am confident President Biden and his team will consider the new Executive Order, adjust as needed, and offer additional ideas about improving the wildland fire management system.”
Many of these goals appear to be laudable. It is interesting that they may be looking to downplay the importance of attacking new fires with overwhelming force.
There appears to be substantial overlap between this new subcabinet and the Wildland Fire Leadership Council which was established in April 2002. It was convened by the Secretaries of the Interior, Agriculture, Defense, and Homeland Security and is “dedicated to consistent implementation of wildland fire policies, goals, and management activities.”
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Robert, L., & Al.
A Type 1 Incident Management Team is being mobilized on a COVID-19 assignment.
Incident Management Team member gets vaccinated as she is being mobilized.
Pacific Northwest Type 1 Incident Management Team 3 led by Incident Commander Randy Johnson has been mobilized through FEMA Emergency Support Function 4 to support COVID-19 vaccination efforts for the Southwest Washington Health Services.
Katy O’Hara, Information Officer for the team, said, “The team will be providing command, logistics, operational, and public information support as mass vaccination efforts begin in the communities.”
The incident in the state of Washington is named “SW WA – COVID 19 Pandemic Vaccination 2020030901”. (I’m not sure how that’s going to look on the T-shirt.)
At least one of the IMT members received their first dose of the vaccine after being notified about the assignment. They will be eligible for the required second dose in four weeks. About two weeks after that, they will begin to get strong immunity.
Our take
All wildland firefighters, especially Incident Management Teams, crews, and individuals that could be mobilized this year, need to get vaccinated now. The government should put in them in the 1b category along with first responders and frontline essential workers. It takes about six weeks after the first dose of the Moderna vaccine before immunity approaches the 95 percent effectiveness seen in the phase three trials if the second dose is received at 28 days. (Edit: contractors also need access to the vaccine.)
The projects would be in California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada, and Utah
Environmentalists have filed a notice of intent to sue the U.S government to block plans to build up to 11,000 miles of fuel breaks they contend would violate the Endangered Species Act in a misguided effort to slow the advance of wildfires in six Western states, the Associated Press reported.
On February 14, 2020 the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) released the Final Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) for Fuel Breaks in the Great Basin. It outlines the construction and maintenance of a system of up to 11,000 miles of fuel breaks within a 223 million acre area to aid in the control of wildfires in portions of Idaho, Oregon, Washington, California, Nevada, and Utah.
The Preferred Alternative outlined in the PEIS analyzes manual, chemical and mechanical treatments, including prescribed fire, seeding, and targeted grazing to construct and maintain a system of fuel breaks. These treatments would be implemented along roads and rights-of-way on BLM-administered lands to minimize new disturbance and wildlife habitat fragmentation and to maximize accessibility for wildland firefighters.
