Wildfire Today

News and opinion about wildland fire

Wildfire Today

Easy Fire causes evacuations near Reagan Presidential Library

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags , 3 Comments on Easy Fire causes evacuations near Reagan Presidential Library

UPDATED at 4:40 p.m. PDT October 30, 2019

Firefighters are working diligently to stop the Easy Fire at the 23 freeway. At least two spot fires erupted on the west side but were suppressed with the aid of aircraft. At times the winds were too extreme for any aircraft but late in the afternoon they subsided enough to allow helicopters and fixed wing air tankers to rejoin the fight.

Ventura County Fire Department officials said the fire has burned about 1,400 acres.

UPDATED at 11:40 a.m. PDT October 30, 2019

map Easy Fire
Map showing the APPROXIMATE location, based on live camera views, of the rapidly spreading Easy Fire at 10:30 a.m. PDT Oct. 30, 2019. Not to be used for planning or evacuation decisions.

The Easy Fire in Simi Valley has burned at least 1,300 acres according to an estimate from Ventura County authorities and has burned completely around the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in southern California. Goats have been used to reduce the vegetation around structures at the library which no doubt improved its survivability. (see map above)

Two DC-10 Very Large Air Tankers are working the fire but Air Attack is having a difficult time selecting targets in the strong wind that can be dropped on effectively.

air tankers aircraft Easy Fire
Aircraft over the Easy Fire at 11:30 a.m. Oct. 30, 2019, including two DC-10 Very Large Air Tankers, T-910 & T-914.

There are a total of 8 air tankers, 9 helicopters, and 800 firefighters working the fire.

The fire is threatening 6,500 homes.

At least two semi trucks have been overturned by the wind.

semi truck overturned by the wind
A semi truck overturned by the wind. ABC7

UPDATED at 8:39 a.m. PDT October 30, 2019

At least seven helicopters are dropping water on the fire but their effectiveness is reduced at times by the wind blowing the water off target. Two Super Scooper air tankers are also on scene and are concentrating on protecting the Reagan Presidential Library.

8:13 a.m. PDT October 30, 2019.

The Easy Fire that started in Ventura County in southern California before dawn spread very rapidly from Easy Street across Tierra Rejada Road toward the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. At 8 a.m. it had burned approximately 200 acres and was approaching the library and several homes east of Highway 23 north of Madera Road. (see map below)

Continue reading “Easy Fire causes evacuations near Reagan Presidential Library”

Can southern California wildfire conflagrations be stopped?

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags 5 Comments on Can southern California wildfire conflagrations be stopped?
Thomas Fire southern California, December 9, 2017
Thomas Fire in southern California, December 9, 2017. Photo by Kari Greer for the USFS.

While the residents of southern California await the wind event that will start Tuesday night bringing winds gusting in some areas at 75 to 85 mph along with single-digit humidity, someone might wonder, can wildfire conflagrations that occur in southern California during extreme conditions be stopped?

That topic has been discussed for many decades but it can be instructive to know the thoughts of scientists who study wildland fire as a profession.

One of the pioneers in the scientific study of fire behavior was Clive M. Countryman, a U.S. Forest Service researcher who four years after the disastrous fires of 1970 addressed the issue in a 16-page paper, “Can Southern California Wildland Conflagrations Be Stopped?”. Mr. Countryman reported that he was not able to develop “a radically new concept of suppression”, deciding instead that the best prospect is to reduce fuel energy output.

Thirty years later Marty Alexander, a Canadian wildfire researcher, took a close look at Mr. Countryman’s findings, came to a similar conclusion, and summarized the issue in a 2004 paper.

Extreme fire weather results in more potential power shutoffs in California

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , 1 Comment on Extreme fire weather results in more potential power shutoffs in California

Electricity could be shut off for millions of people

Red Flag Warnings October 29, 2019
Red Flag Warnings for extreme fire danger October 29, 2019. NWS.

Red Flag Warnings in northern and southern California include forecasts for very strong winds and single digit humidity that will make wildfires difficult or impossible to suppress until, 1) the weather changes, or 2) the fire runs out of fuel.

Conditions in the southern part of the state will be critical, especially in the greater Los Angeles area which should expect 30 to 55 mph winds gusting at 75 to 85 with humidity of 3 to 8 percent.

Below is the National Weather Service forecast for Santa Clarita, near last week’s Tick Fire north of Los Angeles: Tuesday night, winds 41 to 46 mph gusting out of the northeast at 61 to 68. The relative humidity will drop to the single digits by noon on Wednesday.

NWS forecast wind Santa Clarita, CA
NWS forecast for the Santa Clarita, CA area, beginning October 29, 2019. The wind barbs point to the direction the wind will be FROM.

Below is information about this weather event from Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel Tuesday morning:

red flag conditions southern california wind humidity
Jim Cantore, The Weather Channel.

The three large utility companies could potentially shut off the power to millions of people in California beginning Tuesday. The maps below were collected from the web sites of the power companies at 8:30 a.m. PDT October 29 and show areas that could potentially be affected by power shutoffs. The information could change.

areas risk power shutoffs SDG&E
San Diego Gas & Electric’s communities at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. SDG&E.
areas risk power shutoffs SCE
Southern California Edison’s areas at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. SCE.
Pacific Gas & Electric's areas risk power shutoffs
Pacific Gas & Electric’s areas at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. PG&E.

(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)

Kincade Fire burns into two fires from 2017

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags , , 1 Comment on Kincade Fire burns into two fires from 2017

The Tubbs and Pocket Fires

Kincade Pocket Tubbs fires California
The perimeter of the Kincade Fire at 1:09 a.m. PDT October 28, 2019 seen in relation to the Tubbs and Pocket Fires on October 24, 2017. Click to enlarge.

When the wind is blowing at 50 to 90 mph not much can stop a wildfire, but the footprints of two fires that burned in October of 2017, the Tubbs and Pocket Fires, may have had some limited effect on the spread of the Kincade Fire that started last week.

When a wildfire burns into a two-year-old fire scar, usually there is much less vegetation than what had been carrying the fire — fewer tons per acre  and lighter fuels. For example if moving from chaparral to grass, the intensity, the amount of heat produced, and number and size of fire brands generated would be much less. That does not mean the fire would go out on it’s own, but unless the weather is extreme, like it has been in northern California off and on for the last week, there would be less resistance to control. In other words, easier to put out.

In some cases with very steep slopes or  heavy fuels such as very dense brush or timber, retardant dropped from an aircraft might have little effectiveness in dry windy conditions. But in the lighter vegetation that follows a fire, aircraft can be very efficient in slowing the spread long enough to allow firefighters on the ground to move in and actually suppress it.

During the extreme weather in northern California the last few days the Kincade Fire spread partially into the Pocket Fire on the north and the Tubbs Fire on the south. On the map above take note of the unburned red polygon, or island, inside the perimeter of the Pocket Fire.

During extreme winds and single-digit humidity a fire can keep spreading until it runs completely out of fuel, but it would be interesting to hear from folks that were on the Kincade Fire to find out if there was any significant change in fire intensity when it moved into the two fire scars.

Critical to extremely critical fire weather predicted for southern California

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags

The fire weather in southern California for Tuesday night through Thursday, October 29-31, is predicted to be the most severe so far this year. Wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph are possible in the mountains and foothills and relative humidity could drop into the single digits.

In areas of northern California a Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 8 a.m.  PDT Tuesday until 4 p.m. PDT Wednesday. The wind is expected to be out of the north or northeast at 15 to 35 mph with gusts of 35 to 60 mph, locally higher in canyons and exposed ridges.

(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)

Getty Fire burns homes in Los Angeles

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags ,

The fire was reported at about 1:30 a.m. near the southbound lanes of the 405 Freeway in Sepulveda Pass

map Getty Fire
The map shows the location of the Getty Fire in Los Angeles October, 28, 2019.

UPDATED at 4:31 p.m. PDT October 28, 2019

Monday afternoon Firefighters made progress in slowing the spread of the Getty Fire west of the 405 Freeway below the Getty Center museum in Los Angeles. Fire officials said the fire had burned eight homes and 618 acres.

An aggressive air assault after sunrise assisted firefighters on the ground. Numerous helicopters, large air tankers, plus two DC-10 airtankers dropped retardant and water on the brush-covered slopes.

At 4 p.m. some evacuation orders were still in effect for about 10,000 homes, and the southbound lanes of the 405 freeway were closed from the junction of US 101 to Sunset Boulevard.

8:08 a.m. PDT October 28, 2019

The Getty Fire broke out Monday morning near the 405 Freeway below the Getty Center museum in Los Angeles causing authorities to issue evacuation orders for about 3,300 homes. (see map)

The fire was reported at about 1:30 a.m. near the southbound lanes of the 405 Freeway in Sepulveda Pass.

There are reports that several homes  have burned. The Los Angeles Fire Department reported at 7:30 a.m. that approximately 500 acres had burned.

Getty Fire
Getty Fire. ABC7.
Getty Fire
Getty Fire at 8:04 a.m. PDT October 28, 2019.

The home of Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James was one of 3,300 affected by the Getty Fire.

Later he wrote on Twitter,”Finally found a place to accommodate us! Crazy night man!”