An update from the Dixie Fire’s Incident Management Team includes the fact that the fire has been mapped at 604,000 acres, an increase of 26,000 over the previous update.
The numbers of confirmed destroyed structures has risen to 638 residences, 134 commercial buildings, and 400 minor structures.
Resources assigned include 516 fire engines, 186 water tenders, 20 helicopters, 103 hand crews, and 203 dozers, for a total of 5,963 personnel.
Dixie Fire map, northeast area. The white line was the perimeter on the morning of August 17, 2021. The green line was the perimeter at 11:30 p.m. August 15, 2021. The yellow areas represent intense heat.
Strong frontal winds caused the Dixie Fire, between Susanville and Chester, California, to grow substantially in several locations Monday. (see map above) The fire is so huge, more than 578,000 acres, generalizations can’t be used. The south portion has been relatively quiet for several days, while other portions across the north end have been extremely active.
A weather station near Susanville recorded winds Monday afternoon from the southwest, west, and northwest at 10 to 18 mph gusting up to 29 mph while the relative humidity at one point dropped to 9 percent.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)
Southwest of Susanville the fire made a four-mile run between two fires from 2020, the Sheep and Hog Fires. The two-mile gap between those blazes is partially filled by a fire from 2016, the Willard Fire. As of early Tuesday morning the Dixie Fire has moved a short distance into that old burn. Presumably firefighters have been anticipating the fire spreading into this location and had made preparations, such as very wide dozer lines or tactical burning to remove fuel.
The Incident Management Team reported that northeast of Antelope Lake a spot fire developed five miles east of the main fire. That is a long, but not unheard of, distance for a spot fire to occur. It was three miles south of Janesville and three miles west of Highway 395. By early Tuesday morning it had spread to and crossed the highway, forcing its closure. The fire was also very active west of the lake.
Dixie Fire map, northwest area. The white line was the perimeter on the morning of August 17, 2021. The green line was the perimeter at 11:30 p.m. August 15, 2021. The yellow areas represent intense heat.
A new fire separate from the Dixie Fire has been growing on the west side of the fire near the intersection of Highways 89 and 36. It blew up Monday, running for about six miles north-northeast, and early Tuesday had advanced two miles inside Lassen Volcanic National Park, about a mile from merging with the Dixie Fire. The portion of the Dixie Fire already in the Park was also extremely active, moving a mile to the west and north.
This fire and others in the West are driven by very low fuel (vegetation) moistures resulting from drought. On the Dixie fire fuel moistures are historically low and the Energy Release Component is extremely high.
A Red Flag Warning will continue until 11 p.m. Tuesday due to low RH and gusty winds creating critical fire weather conditions. Ridgetop winds will pick up out of the west at 15 to 22 mph with gusts of 30 to 35 mph. Afternoon minimum relative humidity readings will again fall into the teens. A dry cold front will pass over the fire Tuesday night with winds out of the north.
The video below shows the Dixie Fire hitting Highway 395 Monday night.
This photo taken by the GOES 17 NASA satellite at 6:41 p.m. August 16 shows strong winds pushing smoke from the wildfires in California and Oregon to the east.
The fire has burned 569,000 acres in Northern California
2:07 p.m. PDT August 16, 2021
Map of the Dixie Fire. The white line was the perimeter at 11:30 p.m. PDT August 15, 2021. The red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 3:34 a.m. PDT Aug 16, 2021.
The heavy smoke layer that we have seen for days continued Sunday night to dampen fire activity on the Dixie Fire between Chester and Susanville, California. But on Monday Red Flag Warnings are in effect for critical fire weather conditions — 22 mph west-southwest winds gusting to 30 mph along with temperatures in the triple digits with relative humidity in the low teens. This could increase fire activity, pushing it to the east-northeast.
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index for the area on Monday is far above the 95th percentile. By Wednesday it will drop to around the 50th percentile before rising to around the 90th on Friday. The Hot-Dry-Windy Index is a prediction of potential fire spread. It is described as being very simple and only considers the atmospheric factors of heat, atmospheric moisture, and wind. To be more precise, it is a multiplication of the maximum wind speed and maximum vapor pressure deficit in the lowest 50 or so millibars in the atmosphere. It does not consider fuel moisture.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)
Hot-Dry-Windy Index for the area of the Dixie Fire Monday, August 16, 2021.
On Sunday the most active portions of the fire were:
Northwest side as it continues to spread through Lassen Volcanic National Park.
North-central, northeast of Chester and northwest of Westwood.
Mountain Meadows Reservoir, to the west and northeast.
West of Antelope Lake, where the fire has moved into the 2019 Walker Fire.
Damage assessments are ongoing on the Dixie Fire. To date the teams have documented as destroyed, 633 residences and 134 commercial structures. Maps are available showing the status of structures.
The fire has burned 569,000 acres.
Resources assigned to the incident include 569 fire engines, 194 water tenders, 89 hand crews, and 198 dozers for a total of 6,579 personnel.
Dixie Fire map NW Side. The white line was the perimeter at 6:30 a.m. PDT Aug 14, 2021. The blue line was the perimeter 22 hours before. The yellow areas represent intense heat identified manually by the Infrared Analyst. Red dots are heat detected by a satellite at 1:51 p.m. PDT Aug. 14, 2021.
Here are some updated maps of the north half of the Dixie Fire. The south half is quiet.
Most of the fire activity Friday night and Saturday morning was:
Lassen Volcanic National Park;
Northeast and east of Chester;
South and southeast of Westwood;
West of Antelope Lake.
Dixie Fire map NE Side. The white line was the perimeter at 6:30 a.m. PDT Aug 14, 2021. The blue line was the perimeter 22 hours before. The yellow areas represent intense heat identified manually by the Infrared Analyst. Red dots are heat detected by a satellite at 1:51 p.m. PDT Aug. 14, 2021.
Dixie Fire map, NE Side. The white line was the perimeter at 2:35 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. Yellow areas had intense fire. Red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:17 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. The green line was the perimeter two days before.
An inversion remained over the Dixie Fire southwest of Susanville, California Wednesday and Wednesday night trapping the smoke and reducing visibility, but the blaze was still moderately active. Late in the afternoon fire in the Wilcox Valley 12 miles northeast of Greenville intensified, sending up a smoke column that broke through the inversion. The smoke above the inversion was then transported off to the northwest by upper level winds. Warm temperatures Wednesday night and minimal humidity recovery allowed the the fire to continue to spread.
A mapping flight late Wednesday night found that the fire had grown to 510,000 acres.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)
In an update, the Incident Management Team said in areas where the fire has been stopped the large fuels on the ground, such as logs and stumps, will require a significant amount of resources to mop up due to the volume of fuels and the steep, rugged terrain.
Dixie Fire map, NW Side. The white line was the perimeter at 2:35 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. Yellow areas had intense fire. Red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:17 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. The green line was the perimeter two days before.
Aircraft initially working the fire Thursday morning will include 1 Very Large Air Tanker (DC-10), 2 Large Air Tankers, 2 Super Scoopers, 1 Lead Plane, 1 Air Attack aircraft, and approximately 20 helicopters.
Wednesday evening there were 6,133 personnel assigned to the incident, with 511 fire engines, 175 water tenders, 20 helicopters, 81 hand crews, and 198 dozers. The estimated suppression costs to date are $217 million. Nationwide there are over 25,000 personnel committed to wildland fires.
There is a chance Thursday for thunderstorms bringing very little rain with temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s and relative humidity in the lower teens. Winds will generally be out of the southwest in the afternoon with the exception of outflows generated by thunderstorms. The rest of the week should bring rising temperatures and dry conditions. Sustained southwest winds are expected to push the fire to the north and northeast.
Satellite photo of fires in OR, WA and CA at 6:46 p.m. PDT Aug 11, 2021. The red areas indicate heat at fires detected by the satellite.
He is being investigated for possible links to five fires
Exhibit 2 in the Gary Maynard Detention Memo, showing the Ranch Fire shortly after it was discovered. Gary Maynard is charged with starting the fire. Photo courtesy of US Attorney’s office.
A 47-year old man has been arrested for starting a vegetation fire not far from where the 501,000-acre Dixie Fire is burning in Northern California.
Gary Stephen Maynard was charged with starting the Ranch Fire on August 7 and is suspected of starting the Moon and Conard Fires in the same area on August 5 and 7, respectively. He may be linked to two other blazes in Northern California.
Lauren Horwood, Public Information Officer for the U.S. Attorney’s Office, told Wildfire Today that at a detention hearing today in Sacramento the judge decided to hold him without bond. He is scheduled for preliminary examination on August 24.
Mr. Maynard is a former instructor at universities in California including Santa Clara and Sonoma State.
From CNN:
Maynard was a part-time lecturer at Sonoma State University in its Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice during the fall of 2020, a university spokesperson told CNN. He taught two seminars on the topics of criminal justice and deviant behavior, according to school officials. Maynard was filling in for a faculty member who was on leave and was not reappointed for Spring 2021, the school spokesperson said.
Sonoma State University welcomed him as a new lecturer on August 31, 2020. Their description:
Dr. Gary Maynard graduated from Bowling Green State University, University of Alaska Fairbanks and Stony Brook University. He has three master’s degree (political science, theater arts, and sociology) and a Ph.D. in sociology. His teaching and research focus on the following topics: sociology of technology/social media, social psychology, sociology of health, deviance and crime, sociology of the mass media, youth and adolescence, global sociology, environmental sociology, the sociology of sports, the sociology of drug abuse and alcoholism and quantitative research methods.
Investigations are still ongoing. On August 8 a federal agent applied for a warrant to search Mr. Maynard’s vehicle, including the contents of his cell phone and a computer which were clearly visible in his vehicle.
He has not been charged with starting the Dixie Fire, but is being investigated for his responsibility in starting five others. They were all suppressed before growing large, in part because for some of them his vehicle was being tracked and arson investigators had access to the approximate location of his cell phone every 15 seconds. In a couple of cases US Forest Service Agents reported them immediately, were the first on scene, and did what they could to knock down the blazes until firefighters arrived.
Here is a breakdown of the five fires to which he is allegedly linked:
Cascade Fire, July 20, 2021
Mr. Maynard first came into the picture on July 20, 2021 when US Forest fire investigator Brian Murphy was investigating the Cascade Fire in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest on the western slope of Mt. Shasta about 110 air miles northwest of the Dixie Fire. A black Kia Soul vehicle registered to Mr. Maynard was stuck in a rut on an unmaintained Forest Service road about 200 yards from the fire. He refused to identify himself to Investigator Murphy but it was later determined that it was Gary Stephen Maynard, a former university professor. Mr. Maynard asked the Special Agent to pull his vehicle out of the rut, but the Special Agent replied that he was not allowed to tow vehicles. Mr. Maynard’s uncooperative and agitated behavior led Investigator Murphy to conclude it was safest to distance himself from this man, and left the scene, but prior to departing he took a photograph of the stuck vehicle.
Another person in the area told investigators they had seen Mr. Maynard walk toward the general area where the Cascade Fire later started. In addition, two other small fires were discovered, one on each side of the road near where Mr. Maynard’s vehicle had been parked. Both contained what appeared to be burned newspaper and had self-extinguished. Tire tracks left at the scene were examined, measured, and photographed.
Everitt Fire, July 21, 2021
The next day, July 21, 2021, similar tire tracks left by a vehicle with the same wheel base were found at the Everitt Fire, another arson fire on the western slopes of Mt. Shasta in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest.
Investigator Murphy applied for and received search warrants for the near-real-time location of Mr. Maynard’s cell phone and to attach a tracking device to his vehicle. After locating him using the cell phone data, two police officers pulled him over. While they were talking with him, Investigator Murphy installed a magnetic vehicle tracking device under the rear portion of the vehicle.
Exhibit 1 in the Gary Maynard Detention Memo. Map showing the locations of the Moon, Conard, and Ranch Fires. Courtesy of US Attorney’s office. The map was originally created to show the perimeter of the Dixie Fire.
Moon Fire, August 5, 2021
The scenario described in the criminal complaint about another fire, the Moon Fire, was very different. Data from the tracking device showed that Mr. Maynard’s vehicle, while driving north on Mooney Road in the Lassen National Forest, passed the location where the Moon Fire was discovered soon after. The data showed the vehicle drove by the location at 55 mph, but did not stop — until traveling another 3/4 mile where it pulled over on the shoulder of the road for one minute and eight seconds at the end of a long straightaway. The investigator wrote in the complaint that the parking spot offered a view of the Moon Fire. The blaze started on the driver’s side of the road, which, Investigator Murphy said, “offered the opportunity to deliver an aerial ignition device from the driver’s side window.”
A nearby USFS Officer helped contain the fire, followed by a responding engine crew, limiting it to about five feet wide. Investigators narrowed the cause down to arson.
Ranch Fire, August 7, 2021
On August 7 the Ranch Fire (see photo above) started northwest of Susanville, California off Highway 44 in a very remote area where tracking showed Mr. Maynard’s vehicle had been parked for 28 hours. Investigators following and tracking Mr. Maynard called the location “Campsite 2.” This was northeast of the huge very active Dixie Fire and in an area closed to the public because of the fire. The new fire was discovered and reported by Investigator Murphy as he hiked to the site to look for tire track impressions. He wrote in the complaint:
As I neared Campsite 2, I observed a large column of grey and black smoke rising from the forest. I ran back to my vehicle and proceeded to notify the local USFS Fire Dispatch Center. I then returned to the fire, later named the Ranch Fire, and observed the wildfire burning along the forest floor, trees, and brush—an area that consisted of approximately ½ to 1 acre in size. I then observed the tire track impressions that had been left behind by the SUBJECT VEHICLE, which were located at the edge of this new wildland fire.
A CAL FIRE investigator determined the fire to be arson.
Conard Fire, August 7, 2021
Six minutes after he left the location of the Ranch Fire, Mr. Murphy’s tracking data showed that he stopped at another location for about 30 minutes. After he departed, an agent found what was later named the Conard Fire which burned about an acre very close to where the vehicle had been parked. Like the other fires, no obvious ignition device or technique was found, but all possible causes were eliminated except for arson.
Similar to many arsonists, after Mr. Maynard left the Conard Fire, he returned a few hours later, possibly to see the effects of his fire-setting. With the reports of multiple suspicious fires, state and local law enforcement officers responded to the area. A California Highway Patrol officer pulled him over for his unauthorized presence in the closure. After detecting the possible odor of marijuana, the officer used that as probable cause to search for open containers of marijuana; one was found and the officer issued a citation.
When questioned by US Forest Service agents, Mr. Maynard gave them incorrect information about his travels in the previous 24 hours that was not consistent with the tracking data. He denied setting any fires and, at one point, stated that if the agents were going to accuse him of starting fires that he would defend himself in court. Lassen County Sheriff Deputy Steven Lawton booked him in to the Lassen County Jail for violating California Penal Code 409.5, unauthorized entry into a closed emergency area. Later that evening, Deputy Lawton advised Mr. Maynard that a felony charge of arson (California Penal Code 451) was being added. At that point, Deputy Lawton said that Mr. Maynard became enraged and began kicking the jail cell door and screamed, “I’m going to kill you, f****** pig! I told those f****** I didn’t start any of those fires!”
U.S. Forest Service Agents conducted an extensive resources-intensive effort to track Mr. Maynard’s vehicle and were waiting in shifts nearby to track his movements and discover any fires he set. These were extraordinary precautions that were necessary because of the difficulty of finding someone in the forest without a tracker and the speed with which a fire can grow during a period of drought with hot, dry, and windy weather.
Considerations for holding Mr. Maynard in jail
The detention memo obtained by Wildfire Today laid out several reasons why Mr. Maynard should not be released while awaiting trial. Below are quotes, excerpts from the Detention Memo filed August 10, 2021:
“First, arson is a dangerous crime and it is a crime for which it is particularly difficult to fashion conditions of release. Here, the nature and circumstances of Maynard’s arson offense show that he is particularly dangerous, even among arsonists. Over the course of the last several weeks, Maynard has set a series of fires in the vicinity of the Lassen National Forest and Shasta-Trinity National Forest. As the Court is likely aware, California is in the middle of a drought and a particularly early and difficult fire season consistent with the effects of climate change. The Wildland Arsonist: One of the Most Dangerous Criminals, WILDFIRE TODAY, Feb. 23, 2021, available online at https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/23/the-wildland-arsonist-one-of-the-most-dangerous-criminals (last viewed Aug. 10, 2021).
“Words cannot describe this additional threat to firefighters and other emergency personnel as effectively as the map attached as Exhibit 1 to this memorandum [above]. The map shows the boundaries of the Dixie fire where firefighters are laboring to protect the public at significant personal risk. The map also shows where Maynard set fires on August 5th and 7th behind those fire lines. Maynard’s fires were placed in the perfect position to increase the risk of firefighters being trapped between fires. But for the dedication and efforts of U.S. Forest Service investigators working around the clock to track Maynard, those fires would not have been discovered in their infancy. With Maynard’s growing fires at their backs, firefighters would have been placed at much greater risk.
“Agents had installed a tracker on his vehicle. Where Maynard went, fires started. Not just once, but over and over again. As a result, the evidence is strong and Maynard will be convicted if he chooses to go to trial.
“Maynard’s ties to the community also appear weak. He was living out of his car alone and traveling across large sections of Northern California. Maynard appears to have had difficulty holding a teaching job at the various universities at which he has taught. Therefore, this factor favors detention.
“Finally, Maynard poses a particular danger to the community. He is a serial arsonist, during a dangerous time for state and the public from wildfires. Wildfires can and do kill Californians and destroy their homes. Virtually entire towns have been destroyed already this year as well as in prior fire seasons. Moreover, the manner in which Maynard chooses to set his fires is particularly dangerous to first responders who are already stretched thin fighting large fires.”
