Our fire deficit

Researchers have determined that we have a “fire deficit” in the western United States. Since the late 1800s, they say, human activities, grazing, climate change, and fire suppression caused a large, abrupt decline in burning similar to the Little Ice Age (which was between 1400 and 1700), leading to a buildup of fuel, or biomass. Large fires in the late 20th and 21st century have begun to address the fire deficit, but it is continuing to grow.

We owe the ecosystem some fire, and the debt collector has come to visit.

Their key findings:

  • Comparing charcoal records and climate data, as expected, showed warm, dry intervals, such as the “Medieval Climate Anomaly” between 1,000 and 700 years ago, which had more burning, and cool, moist intervals, such as the “Little Ice Age” between 500 and 300 years ago, had fewer fires. Short-term peaks in fires were associated with abrupt climate changes — warming or cooling.
  • Wildfires during most of the 20th century were almost as infrequent as they were during the Little Ice Age, about 400 years ago. However, only a century ago, fires were as frequent as they were about 800 years ago, during the warm and dry Medieval Climate Anomaly. “In other words, humans caused fires to shift from their 1,000-year maximum to their 1,000-year minimum in less than 100 years,” Gavin said.
  • Climate and humans acted synergistically — by the end of the 18th century and early 19th century — to increase fire events that were often sparked by agricultural practices, clearing of forests, logging activity and railroading.

The authors of the paper, especially lead author Jennifer R. Marlon, are to be commended for publishing this as Open Access, which means that the results from this taxpayer funded research are freely available to the people who paid for it (unlike other research by the U.S. Forest Service that we wrote about earlier today).

The figure below made my head hurt as I figured it out, never having seen anything like this. It is a portion of a chart in the referenced paper.

Fire Deficit Charts
From the research paper: "Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western USA"

The paper, titled Long-term perspective on wildfires in the western United States can be found HERE, and a summary is HERE. The authors are Jennifer R. Marlon, Patrick J. Bartlein, Daniel G. Gavin, Colin J. Long, R. Scott Anderson, Christy E. Briles, Kendrick J. Brown, Daniele Colombaroli, Douglas J. Hallett, Mitchell J. Power, Elizabeth A. Scharf, and Megan K. Walsh.

 

Thanks go out to Dick

Wildfire news, October 1, 2011

Wallow fire 6-5-2011
Wallow fire 6-5-2011. Photo: Jayson Coil/US Forest Service

Climate change and wildfires

The New York Times has a very interesting article about the real effects of climate change, bringing the issue into the practical realm. Wildfires are playing and will continue to play an integral part. Here is an excerpt:

“The amount of area burning now in Siberia is just startling — individual years with 30 million acres burned,” Dr. Swetnam said, describing an area the size of Pennsylvania. “The big fires that are occurring in the American Southwest are extraordinary in terms of their severity, on time scales of thousands of years. If we were to continue at this rate through the century, you’re looking at the loss of at least half the forest landscape of the Southwest.”

Seasonal wildland firefighters arrested for drinking in front of fire station

Two wildland firefighters working for the Santa Fe Fire Department in New Mexico were arrested and fired for drinking beer in front of a fire station and on city property. Here is an excerpt from an article in the Albuquerque Journal:

Two seasonal employees for the Santa Fe Fire Department were arrested Wednesday night after police caught one of them, who is 19, drinking beer on city property. And he may have been noticed because that station is in the same area as the Santa Fe Police Department’s Professional Standards division.

“There’s police driving down the street all the time,” said Santa Fe police Capt. Aric Wheeler. “You’re rolling the dice thinking you’re not gonna be seen by somebody.”

An officer spotted Genaro Romero drinking a beer in front of the fire station at 2501 Camino Entrado just after 11 p.m. Wednesday. When the officer asked why he was drinking beer on city property, Romero said he was a firefighter. The officer then checked Romero’s identification and saw he was 19. Under questioning, Romero said he got the beer from Rene Arellano, 24, who was inside the building and admitted providing the booze, according to Wheeler.

Romero and Arellano were temporary firefighters for the city’s Wildland Fire Team. The two had been working as forestry technicians during the area’s wildfire season and their last day was scheduled for today, according to Santa Fe Fire Department Assistant Fire Chief Eric Litzenberg.

Until they were arrested Wednesday.

“They’re no longer employed by us,” said Litzenberg, who would not elaborate when asked if they were terminated.

Romero was arrested on a charge of minor in possession of alcohol, while Arellano was charged with providing alcohol to a minor, which is a felony, according to Wheeler.

Report: SEI to buy Premo

There is a report that SEI Industries is buying Premo. SEI makes Bambi Buckets and a line of aerial and ground-based ignition devices, Plastic Sphere Dispensers (PSD), and ignition spheres. SEI is is fairly new to the aerial ignition market. Premo has been making aerial ignition devices and ignition spheres used from helicopters for a long time. If the deal goes through, SEI will support and service the Premo PSD machines as well as supplying 1.25-inch spheres.

Trivia question

The death of which U. S. President’s father was related to a wildfire? The answer after the jump.
Continue reading “Wildfire news, October 1, 2011”

Wildfire news, September 26, 2011

The U. S. Forest Service announced on August 15 that they intended to award a non-competitive multi-million dollar contract to the Rand Corporation to continue studying the air tanker issue. Rand had a previous contract with the USFS to provide advice about the long term management of the air tanker and helicopter fleet. The report from that study was due in January, 2011, but rumor has it that their product was virtually worthless and they were sent back to the drawing board. Now the USFS wants to throw good money after bad, giving Rand what appears to be an additional $7 million to milk the public coffers even more. This issue has been studied to death already. The USFS staff in Washington simply needs to review the previous four studies and make a damn decision about how to reconstitute the large air tanker fleet which has declined through mismanagement from 44 to 11. This is turning into a very bad joke on the American taxpayers. Someone needs to put some firefighters in charge a making the decision, like in this classic video.

UPDATE at 4:14 p.m. Sept. 26, 2011; we just found at another web page a “modification/amendment” to the above announcement:

Added: Sep 01, 2011 5:01 pm. Due to the responses received expressing interest in this procurement, the program has decided to withdraw its sole source determination. A competitive acquisition will be conducted after the end of the fiscal year.

This is a good news/bad news announcement. Good, in that there is a chance that someone who actually has knowledge about aerial firefighting might do the study. Bad, in that… ARE YOU KIDDING ME? STILL ANOTHER STUDY! The previous five are not enough? How many do we need? 10? 15?

******

Dollar Lake fire, 9-2-2011
Dollar Lake fire, 9-2-2011. Photo by S. Swetland

The Dollar Lake fire burning on the slopes of Mt. Hood in Oregon received some rain and is being turned over to a Type 3 incident management team. They are calling it 90% contained after burning 6,304 acres.

*****

Texas wildfires became political fodder on Sunday when President Obama, speaking at a fund-raiser in Woodside, California, said:

I mean, has anybody been watching the debates lately? You’ve got a governor whose state is on fire denying climate change.

Mark Miner, a spokesperson for Governor Rick Perry of Texas, shot back saying it was “outrageous” that the president…

…would use the burning of 1,500 homes, the worst fires in state history as a political attack.

*****

And in more wildfire-related political news, if Congress can’t get their s**t together and pass a bill funding disaster relief, thousands of victims of the Texas fires may not get the help they need to rebuild home and businesses. Meanwhile, more than 3,000 Texans have registered for about $5.8 million in federal government wildfire-related aid from FEMA, including Housing Assistance, Other Needs Assistance, and Disaster Unemployment Assistance.

*****

Canoe training for firefighters on the Pagami Creek fire
Canoe training for firefighters on the Pagami Creek fire – Photo by Luke Macho

Some firefighting resources are being released from the Pagami Creek fire in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in northeast Minnesota. The fire has not increased in size in a week or so and the incident management team is calling it 93,459 acres and 53% contained.  (Definitions of “contain” and “control”). Yesterday, air resources dropped 267,000 gallons of water and delivered 11,000 pounds of cargo.

*****

On Sunday the Norton Point fire southeast of Yellowstone National Park in Wyoming grew by 3,000 to 3,500 acres and has burned a total of 20,500 acres. It is staffed with two people.

Researchers conclude climate change may eliminate forests in Yellowstone area

Arnica_fire_1846_09-24
Arnica fire in Yellowstone National Park, September 24, 2009

A group of five researchers studying climate change in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) have concluded that higher temperatures will lead to more frequent fires, changing the fire return interval from 100-300 years to less than 30 years. This would prevent the current suite of conifer species from regenerating and result in them being replaced with nonforest vegetation.  This is expected to occur by mid-century.

From the abstract:

Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species.

Holy crap! By the time you or your children are applying for Medicare, there may be very few trees left in Yellowstone National Park.

Here are their findings:

Conclusions

Continued warming could completely transform GYE fire regimes by the mid-21st century, with profound consequences for many species and for ecosystem services including aesthetics, hydrology, and carbon storage. The conditions associated with extreme fire seasons are expected to become much more frequent, with fire occurrence and area burned exceeding that observed in the historical record or reconstructed from paleoproxy records for the past 10,000 y. Even in years without extreme fire events, average annual area burned is projected to increase, and years with no large fires—common until recently—are projected to become increasingly rare. The timing and spatial location of such changes varied somewhat among the three GCMs used in this study, but the models converged by the latter part of the century. The magnitude of predicted increases in fire occurrence and area burned suggests that there is a real likelihood of Yellowstone’s forests being converted to nonforest vegetation during the mid-21st century because reduced fire intervals would likely preclude postfire tree regeneration. A change in dominant vegetation would also cause the GYE to shift from a climate- to a fuellimited fire regime (24). We suggest that the climate–fire system is a tipping element that may qualitatively change the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and could be indicative of similar changes in other subalpine or boreal forests.

The paper can be found at PNAS.org and was written by Anthony L. Westerling, Monica G. Turner, Erica A. H. Smithwick, William H. Romme, and Michael G. Ryan. The title is Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century.

In August, 2009 we wrote an article that criticized the U.S. Government for funding research, but publishing the results in privately owned publications which charge substantial fees for access to the government-bought research findings. We are very pleased to report that the paper described above is published as an “open access article” so that, as far as we know, anyone with an internet connection can read it.

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These are not your grandfather’s forest fires

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Smoke from Wallow fire, from space 1815 MT 6-8-2011
Smoke from the Wallow and Horseshoe 2 fires, photographed by a NASA weather satellite June 8, 2011. Notations added by Wildfire Today.

Chip Ward has written an opinion piece for CBSnews.com about the “monster” wildfires that have been turning large swaths of Texas and Arizona black over the last few months. From his home in Utah he does not really break much new ground, but he lays out the current situation in a style that makes it a worthwhile read.

Here is how the article begins:

Arizona is burning. Texas, too. New Mexico is next. If you need a grim reminder that an already arid West is burning up and blowing away, here it is. As I write this, more than 700 square miles of Arizona and more than 4,300 square miles of Texas have been swept by monster wildfires. Consider those massive columns of acrid smoke drifting eastward as a kind of smoke signal warning us that a globally warming world is not a matter of some future worst-case scenario. It’s happening right here, right now.

Air tankers have been dropping fire retardant on what is being called the Wallow fire in Arizona and firefighting crews have been mobilized from across the West, but the fire remained “zero contained” for most of last week and only 18% so early in the new week, too big to touch with mere human tools like hoses, shovels, saws, and bulldozers. Walls of flame 100 feet high rolled over the land like a tsunami from Hades. The heat from such a fire is so intense and immense that it can create small tornadoes of red embers that cannot be knocked down and smothered by water or chemicals. These are not your grandfather’s forest fires.

 

Thanks Dick

British Columbia modifies wildfire strategy to account for climate change

Record-breaking fire years are occurring with increasing frequency in British Columbia, causing land managers to rethink how they manage their forests. The government has been maintaining wildlife corridors which it turns out, also provide paths for wildfires. The Forest Minister intends to modify their timber harvesting procedures, creating fire breaks in the wildlife corridors.

From the Vancouver Sun:

VANCOUVER — British Columbia Forest Minister Pat Bell has introduced an overhaul of the province’s wildfire strategy to take into account the increasing frequency and intensity of forest fires brought about by climate change.

The past two fire seasons have racked up bills between three and four times the long-term average cost for fighting fires in B.C., and the growing instability in local weather patterns means things will have to be done differently, Bell said in an interview.

“We need to start thinking about how we harvest our forests to minimize the ability of fire complexes to grow together.”

In July, several small fires in central B.C.’s Cariboo region linked together through wildlife corridors to form one large fire, forcing evacuations and a very expensive firefighting operation. Harvesting forests to create man-made breaks between stands of timber that mimic the natural fire breaks exploited by firefighters could help contain fires, Bell said.

The Wildfire Management Strategy notes that “record” fire years — as measured by area destroyed — are coming with increasing frequency.

Climate models predict more of the same as temperatures rise in the north and interior of the province.

And there is some evidence that measurable climate change is already here. Average temperatures recorded in Canada’s north this past summer are among the highest in 63 years of data collection, according to preliminary figures released by Environment Canada.