Wildfire briefing, May 8, 2015

Fighting wildfires from the air — Is it cost effective?

An article at KCRA in Sacramento raises the question about the effectiveness of using aircraft to fight fires, and mentions a study being conducted that is collecting data that may help provide answers.

Firefighters on Coronado National Forest prepare for the fire season

Nogales International profiles two 10-person hand crews on the Nogales National Forest in Arizona, that when combined form the only 20-person crew on the Forest.

California drought kills 12 million trees

Below is an excerpt from an article in The Guardian:

An astonishing 12.5m trees have died in California, unable to survive a harsh fourth year of drought, according to a US government study. The news of the massive tree die-offs came this week, after the United States Forest Service, a Department of Agriculture agency, released the results of an aerial survey it undertook in April over 8.2m acres of forest. The survey was organized three months ahead of schedule.

“The special early season aerial survey was prompted by knowledge of the worsening drought situation and reports from field crews that copious amounts of new mortality had appeared after the regular survey was flown in July of 2014,” explained Jeffrey Moore, a biologist with the agency who was one of the surveyors on the expedition…

Another copy of the May 5 Drought Monitor that we posted earlier today:

Drought Monitor May 5, 2015

Drought outlook

Drought Outlook

The seasonal drought outlook through July 20, 2015. According to the NWS, dryness will persist in the West and upper Midwest.

California snowpack lowest on record since 1950

CA drought

California’s snowpack has reached an all-time low since 1950, the California Department of Water Resources announced last week.

Like most states in the West, the department takes regular snowpack measurements, which are used to predict the amount of water California can expect to see in its reservoirs. The measurements are also an indicator of how dry and possibly fire-prone California’s landscape has become.

California’s snowpack accounts for 30 percent of the state’s water, once it melts, the release said.

Snowpack measurements are taken against an average — at 100 percent — making anything less than 100 less than average. California’s snowpack has been on a steady decline since January of this year. The latest measurement was 8 percent of the historical average. Typically, snowpack is at its peak in California by April 1.

The state is going into its fourth year of extreme drought, following three of its driest years on record.

 

 

This winter’s temperature, precipitation, and snow cover

Astronomical winter does not end until March 20, but we are already mentally summarizing the weather we experienced over the last three months and are thinking about what the spring and summer wildfire seasons might look like. Below are charts from NOAA showing this winter’s precipitation, temperature, snow cover, and lastly the drought outlook.

Winter 2014-2015 average temp

Winter 2014-2015 precipitation

 

Below is the legend for the amount, in inches, that the predicted snow depth (shown on the following maps) on March 9 will depart from normal.

Legend, snow depth departure inches

 

Snow depth departure WA OR N-CA

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Another early start to the fire season?

Round Fire
The Round Fire north of Bishop, California, February 10, 2015. Photo by Jerry Dodrill, used with permission.

The High Country News has an interesting article about the lengthening of the wildfire seasons. Below is an excerpt:

…For local residents, [the 7,000-acre Round Fire north of Bishop, CA on February 10, 2015] drove home a message Westerners may finally have to get used to: Fire season isn’t just confined to the months of July and August anymore, or even May through September. Over the last four decades, the season across the West has gotten two and a half months longer. Last year, rare January fires swept across southern California. And just last week, the Round Fire wasn’t the only abnormally early burn to hit the West. A spate of wildfires broke out in northern Utah Feb. 8 and 9, burning a few hundred acres.

These early season fires owe much to the ongoing drought. The area burned by the Round Fire is usually covered in snow at this time of year, but [local photographer Jim] Stimson said the ground is bare. California’s paltry snowpack, dry soils and unseasonably warm temperatures make it easier for a spark, whether caused by humans or lightning, to catch and travel faster and farther than usual. While it’s nearly impossible to pin any particular fire event to climate change, we do know that the changing climate exacerbates the drought, which leads to more fires. Scientists say that Westerners can almost certainly expect more early-season fires like the Round, as climate change continues…

wildfire season length climate change
The orange bars show estimates of new fire season length by region. Graphic from the 2009 report from the Quadrennial Fire Review published in 2008, titled “The Future of Wildland Fire Management” by the Brookings Institution.

—Article about the Round Fire on Wildfire Today.
—Photos of the Round Fire on Wildfire Today.

Drought outlook

Seasonal drought outlook, February 19

The seasonal drought outlook released yesterday covers the period February 19 through May 31, 2015.

Below is the Drought Monitor, showing the status of drought in the U.S. on February 17, 2015.

Drought monitor, February 17