One foot in the black – an off-season journey

Participants in WRTEX Mexico, the first delivery of the program in Latin America. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik

By Silvie Fojtik

The following is a photo essay chronicling my travels to Latin America from November 2024 through February 2025.

I work a seasonal job in wildfire; generally, this is in the months of February through October in the Northern Hemisphere.

In the off season, while some lock into their skis and patrol the local hill or undertake rites of passage on their respective journeys to self-discovery through recreational foreign adventures, I kept one foot in the black.

This article is first published in Wildfire Magazine – read the full edition.

The winter of 2024-25 was particularly fruitful, with an organic unfolding of fire opportunities in Latin America that kept me busy until I stepped back into my regular position in Smithers, British Columbia, as a wildfire assistant – an officer role – for the Cassiar Zone, the furthest northwest region of the province, its borders abutting Yukon and Alaska.

My venture south began in Mexico, where I participated in the first Latin American WTREX (Women in Fire Prescribed Fire Training Exchange). I later went to Costa Rica for a couple of training events for local wildland firefighters. I ended the trip witnessing the tail end of a historic fire that threatened the town of El Bolsón, Argentina.

In 2023, largely due to my intermediate proficiency in Spanish, I was tasked as liaison to a contingent of 100 Costa Rican firefighters deployed to British Columbia and various single resource fireline roles in conjunction with Mexican Unit Crews. That experience and growing frequency of inter-agency resource sharing emphasized the benefits of better understanding fuel, terrain, and operations in Canada’s visiting partner countries, not to mention continuing to improve my Spanish.

These trips were of a personal nature, not funded nor representing my employer.

Mexico’s WTREX

November 4-15, 2024 | Jalisco, Mexico

Nancy Gonzalez and Ceci Portillo, Mexico, at the 2024 WTREX burn at Jalisco. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik.
Nancy Gonzalez and Ceci Portillo, Mexico, at the 2024 WTREX burn at Jalisco. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik.

Women-in-fire Prescribed Fire Training Exchange is under the same auspices as TREX, typically a two-week event combining in-class and field portions related to prescribed burning and forming collaborative experiential training around good fire. TREXs are managed under the arm of Fire Networks, largely coordinated by staff from The Nature Conservancy, Watershed Research and Training Center, University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources and United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service, now taking on international reach with events across the globe.

This was the first WTREX delivery in Latin America with more than 35 participants from 11 countries, spearheaded by Yesica Garcia, based in Jalisco and inspired by her participation in the 2023 South Africa WTREX. Garcia was the incident commander whilst being, impressively, eight months pregnant.

Lenya Quinn-Davidson, University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources’ Fire Network and lead on Fire Network’s WTREX, attended the first half. We had technical officers from Mexico, Spain, Chile, the United States, and Ecuador; operational staff from Portugal, Costa Rica, Argentina, and Honduras; and a high official from Peru working on establishing his country’s wildfire management program.

The primary base for the event was Agua Brava training centre, near Guadalajara; during my stay I found out it was the defining training grounds for a visionary, longstanding partnership between the Mexican state of Jalisco and Canadian province of Alberta. In the mid 2000s, Jalisco firefighters were embedded in Alberta’s provincial fire crews for the duration of the season; some were further trained in operational single resource roles. Several of these participants now undertake critical agency representation (AREP) roles while on deployments to Canada with high proficiency in English and a deep understanding of Canadian fire operations. The program was paired down to a regular resource sharing agreement around mid 2010s.

1st SINAC Women’s Wildland Firefighter Camp

January 16-19, 2025

Cabo Blanco Absolute Nature Reserve, Costa Rica

I was invited as speaker and instructor to Costa Rica’s first women-devoted firefighting camp. In a rare occurrence, the camp was held over three days in one of Costa Rica’s national reserves closed to public. The event was funded by the Canadian embassy through the Canada Fund for Local Initiatives.

The nation’s is mostly characterized by surface fires as the predominant deciduous stands drop their leaves by summer’s heat. Some introduced coniferous stands do exist.

Costa Rica is building a growing contingent of skilled select individuals across several agencies; many are being trained specifically for the prerequisites necessary for Canadian deployments, some having as many as three back-to-back seasons in Canada’s boreal under their belts.

There are a select few wildfire trained personnel among the structural firefighters in Costa Rica.

The country’s administrative body responsible for conservation areas, SINAC (Sistema Nacional de Áreas de Conservación), has crews comprising regular park staff and local volunteers, both generally responding within their designated jurisdictions.

The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC) made a reconnaissance visit to Costa Rica in 2019 and a memorandum of understanding and operations plan were signed on Oct. 19, 2021, with SINAC.

The third main player in the wildland sector in Costa Rica, the engine behind the dispatch and organizing of the deployments, is an NGO closely tied to SINAC called Pro Parques, nimbly able to mobilize finances and resources rapidly.

A joint effort between Carolina Orozco, a SINAC officer and member of the first contingent to Canada in 2023, and Pro Parques executive director Rocío Echeverri, helped to spearhead this first women-specific fire training event.

Maria Luisa Alfaro explaining basic fireline operations. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik
Maria Luisa Alfaro explaining basic fireline operations. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik

It was an honour to also be in the presence of Costa Rica’s Luisa Alfaro, a powerhouse I had the fortune to meet. For decades, Alfaro has been a lead consultant to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) in emergency management in Latin America; she started a mission 24 years ago to knock on every country’s governing office to establish the incident command system (ICS) Latin America wide. A 2017 post by USAID celebrated Luisa’s contributions and boasted about the more than 20,000 firefighters trained by Luisa!

Ade Brica Volunteer Brigade

NWCG S-190 – Intro to fire behaviour

January 25, 2025 | Tamarindo, Costa Rica

With a week off between events, Renee Jack, one of the instructors at the SINAC women’s camp rounded up an opportunity for a volunteer fire brigade – led by the fierce born and bred local, Natalia García – to experience a day of basic fire certification. I supported García’s instructional minimally and largely captured photos for her reporting needs. I first met Nati at the WTREX in Mexico, earlier in November, and again during the women’s camp – another example of the immeasurable benefits of these international events.

Renee Jack, a USFS fire program specialist, conducting an exam with a local fire brigade, which gathers every Saturday to train and develop local projects such as strategic fuel breaks near Tamarindo, Costa Rica. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik
Renee Jack, a USFS fire program specialist, conducting an exam with a local fire brigade, which gathers every Saturday to train and develop local projects such as strategic fuel breaks near Tamarindo, Costa Rica. Photo: Sylvie Fojtik

Renee is a fire program specialist for United States Forest Service international program; her gentle poise reflects her multi-decade career in fire from smokejumper to high-level operational roles, through to the international realm of training and emergency response.

Nati’s father established ADE Brica to address a gap in response coverage in the community and, notably, an area more prone to fires, as the northwest finds itself drier than the rest of Costa Rica. Impressively, most Saturdays are dedicated to the local volunteer brigades; some days were spent cutting and digging a fire break for the community of Tamarindo or training, like on that one January weekend.

Historic WUI Wildfire “Confluencia” 3’892ha

February 14-24, 2025 | El Bolsón, Argentina

On Jan. 30, 2025, a historic fire ignited north of El Bolsón, taking a nine-kilometre run west through the neighbouring community, burning more than 1000 hectares the first day. Despite united efforts among farm landowners with slip tanks, structural engines, and wildland firefighters, the fire advanced for the next 72 hours, resulting in one fatality, 200 structures lost and 900 people evacuated. SPLIF, Rio Negro’s provincial wildfire agency, coordinated mutual-aid response.

After two days without sleep, navigating airports and red-eye flights, I arrived in El Bolsón. With no time to spare, by morning, I was immediately integrated into a local squad, finally getting a chance to join the fireline with friends I made the previous year, learning their techniques, fuel types, and fire behaviour, and attempting to infuse some fresh energy to an already exhausted crew.

The Confluencia fire was on the heels of several multi-thousand-hectare fires that had been burning in and around neighbouring provinces. By the time I arrived on Feb.13, the flashy pressing flames had abated due to some favourable weather and many outside agencies had begun to disperse. Significant work remained in buttoning up the perimeter of Bolsón’s almost 4000-hectare fire.

For some, this fire had meant 23 days straight on this fire alone (some had been supporting neighbouring fire incidents and were quickly diverted to defend Bolsón), not to mention several 20- to 30-hour shifts at its inception. In addition to agency fire crews, various military entities and structural fire crews mobilized from across the country.

Argentina has a robust wildfire management program at three levels of administration with a framework established for both prevention and suppression at each agency level.

In the early 2000s, the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) – now dissolved and part of Global Affairs Canada – funded a multi-year program to bolster Argentina’s wildfire management program, primarily in prevention. Canada’s fire weather indices (FWI) was adopted.

The senior officer at the local base recalls two Hercules landing from British Columbia filled with suppression equipment. Imprints of this 25-year-old collaboration are still present in the people I met, and equipment found on the fireline.

I crossed paths with a Canadian faller who recalled the time a group of Argentinians came to shadow his crew while he was a supervisor for BC’s Trailblazer Unit Crew. The BC hallmark Mark 3 pump red toolboxes can still be found in Argentina’s national park inventory and on the line.

Some anecdotes point to the introduction of Douglas fir in the 1950s in the province of Chubut, but a more concerted national push for the introduction of lodgepole pine, Ponderosa pine and Monterey pine occurred in the 1970s with associated subsidies in an ironic effort to build an effective logging industry under the auspices of saving the native species.

These conifers proved to be far more aggressive, exhibiting more impressive growth than in their local habitat. Far more alarming is the trees’ immediate dense colonization post fire, exacerbating the situation. The confluence of changing climactic conditions (drought and increased frequency of lightning) and loaded landscape-scale invasive pines is forming a dire situation in Patagonia, requiring an aggressive adaptation to the devastating ecological impacts and increased wildfire urban interface threats.

WTREX Quijota

April 13-24, 2026 | Castilla-La-Mancha, Spain

María Ángeles Romero and Gloria Sánchez López (see photo below) lived a transformative experience as participants of the Mexican WTREX and dedicated the last 1.5 years organizing the inaugural Spanish WTREX: WTREX Quijota, in the arid landscape dotted with wind mills that inspired Cervantes’ classic novel Don Quixote.

Fifteen countries were represented (Spain, Brazil, Bolivia, Mexico, Canada, the United States, Peru, Costa Rica, Switzerland, Colombia, Ecuador, Argentina, Chile, Honduras and Guatemala) in an immersive two-week event filled with workshops, presentations, multiple prescribed burns of pine-oak forests, and cultural visits from vineyards to cheese makers.

Spain was a perfect backdrop with its widely established prescribed burn and prevention programs in addition to suppression, international emergency response reach, and leader in technical innovations. The presence of local experts smoothly facilitated both the training and burn operations.

The WTREX model transcends a typical sanitized public confluence to break barriers and build a stronger, more intimate team of diverse individuals, boosting confidence and flow of insights and learnables. The impacts are continuous and immeasurable in a world with expanding need for international collaboration.

Silvie Fojtik

Born to Czech parents in Switzerland, Silvie Fojtik’s family emigrated to Canada when she was two years old. Thus began her eclectic, diverse exposure and multidisciplinary life into arts, sciences, engineering and outdoor adventure. The latest explorations coalesced into a trajectory in wildfires, starting in 2017, bouncing between contracting companies, provincial and National Park fire crews and currently for BC Wildfire Services. When Covid restrictions prevented furthering her scuba diving certifications she invested her savings into her first mirrorless digital camera system instead. This unearthed a deeply seated, buried passion for the creative arts.

Wildfire risk elevated throughout the Western US during July Fourth weekend

Widespread extreme heat and critically dry vegetation nationwide prompted experts to issue multiple fuels and fire behavior advisories throughout the July 4 weekend. Forecasters don’t expect relief anytime soon.

The National Interagency Fire Center has two active advisories, which are only issued during extreme circumstances that pose elevated threats to firefighters or public safety, for vast areas of the country, including:

One of the fires burning in the advisory area, the Snyder Mesa Fire, has burned over 30,000 acres and caused the deaths of three wildland firefighters earlier this week. It currently sits at 65% containment as of Friday, but wildfire officials said there’s an elevated risk of the fire breaching containment due to observed extreme fire spread, critically dry fuels, and drought-stressed brush and trees.

“Fuel conditions across the Geographic Area are significantly drier and more volatile than normal for late-June,” the NIFC’s advisory said. “Prolonged heat, low humidity, and steady winds have rapidly dried out live and dead fuels, especially native grasses, trees/brush, and 1000-hour fuels. In most of Colorado and a good part of Southern Wyoming, moisture levels are nearing or exceeding historic lows, triggering fire behavior seen only during the driest and
most severe fire seasons.”

Apart from the risk of fireworks igniting wildfires, forecasters also warned about elevated fire risk due to strong gusts in the Greater Four Corners region and isolated dry thunderstorms developing in both Wyoming and portions of New Mexico and Texas. A warming trend in the western U.S. also sets up high fire probability, along with record-high temperatures throughout the East Coast.

Identities of firefighters killed by burnover near Colorado-Utah border released

The names of the three wildland firefighters killed during a burnover event near the Colorado-Utah border on Saturday were released by the Department of the Interior on Monday.

The firefighters were identified as:

  • Emily Barker, 38, of Clinton Township, Michigan, assigned to the U.S. Forest Service Rifle Helitack. 
  • Nick Hutcherson, 27, of Glendale, Arizona, assigned to the U.S. Forest Service Kaibab National Forest. 
  • Sydney Watson, 27, of Warrior, Alabama, assigned to the U.S. Wildland Fire Service Rifle Helitack.
From left to right: Emily Barker, Nick Hutcherson and Sydney Watson. Credit: Department of the Interior.

Officials did not release the identities of the two firefighters hospitalized with burns. The agencies have mobilized a serious accident investigation team to review the circumstances leading up to the incident, officials said.

The Knowles and Gore fires, which the Rifle Helitack crew was originally assigned to, were overtaken by the Snyder Mesa Fire after it merged with the Jones Fire, the U.S. Wildland Fire Service said in a press release on Monday. An interagency complex incident management team has since assumed command.

“We mourn the loss of three firefighters who answered the call to protect others and made the ultimate sacrifice in service to their fellow citizens,” U.S. Wildland Fire Service Chief Brian Fennessy said in the release. “Our thoughts are with their families, loved ones, friends and crewmates as they face an unimaginable loss. These firefighters embodied the courage, professionalism and selflessness that define the wildland fire service.”

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Burnover kills 3 firefighters and injures 2 near Colorado-Utah border, Wildland Fire Service’s first fatalities

Our sincere condolences go out to the families, friends, and co-workers of the victims and the injured.

RELATED COVERAGE: Wildfire aircraft crash in Canada: 3 dead

Burnover kills 3 firefighters and injures 2 near Colorado-Utah border, Wildland Fire Service’s first fatalities

The U.S. Wildland Fire Service announced the deaths of three firefighters early Sunday morning after a burnover event near the Colorado-Utah border.

Service officials said crews were responding to wildfires in western Colorado on Saturday when firefighters became trapped and flames overtook them. Two firefighters survived and are being treated for burns, while three others succumbed to their injuries. The identities of those killed and injured are being withheld until family members are notified.

The deaths are the Service’s first fatalities since the Department of the Interior consolidated all of its wildland firefighting forces into a single agency. The Service did not release details of the operational events leading up to the burnover, with officials saying additional information would be released later.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: US Wildland Fire Service partially funded from significant EPA cuts

“The U.S. Wildland Fire Service and the U.S. Forest Service are focused on supporting the firefighters’ family, friends and colleagues during this difficult time,” officials said in the press release.

The firefighters were assigned to the Knowles and Gore fires, which have since combined with the nearby Jones and Snyder fires into what local officials are calling the Snyder Mesa Fire. The combined fires have burned nearly 29,000 acres as of Sunday morning and have triggered an emergency declaration from Colorado Gov. Jared Polis, which activated the state’s Emergency Operations Plan and authorizes the support of the Colorado National Guard.

“This support includes State and interagency engines and handcrews, DFPC and interagency aviation resources, and incident management personnel and overhead to assist in management of the fire and containment efforts,” Polis said. “In addition, DFPC is supporting Mesa County and the incident with administrative and financial oversight and intelligence products that include imaging, mapping, and fire behavior modeling and projects.”

The Mesa County Sheriff’s Office and the American Red Cross established an evacuation resource center in the former Faith Heights Church located at 600 28 ¼ Road in Grand Junction, Colorado.

Wildfire aircraft crash in Canada: 3 dead

File photo of a Twin Commander 690C

Three people are dead after their plane crashed while working on the Fort Simpson fire in Canada’s Northwest Territories.

Details are still emerging but it appears that the Bird Dog aircraft was working with a larger aerial firefighting tanker on the wildfire. The incident occurred Wednesday night, local time, about 50 kilometers west of Fort Simpson.

In a Special Bulletin just published NWT Fire confirmed the death of the three people, but provided no more detail:

“With profound sadness, we confirm that three people lost their lives in the Bird Dog aircraft crash west of Fort Simpson. Responders accessed the crash site and confirmed the fatalities today. Our organization is grieving alongside the families, friends, colleagues, and the broader wildfire community as we process this unthinkable loss…

…Critical Incident Stress Management Teams are being deployed to several bases to support wildfire management personnel in the wake of this tragedy. The RCMP, Coroner, and Transportation Safety Board of Canada will investigate the incident, and the GNWT will fully participate.“

Buffalo Airways, based in Yellowknife NT, has put out a similar statement on the loss of its pilots and aircraft, confirming it was a Turbo Commander 690 aircraft.

“It is with heavy hearts that we confirm the loss of one of our Aerial Firefighting pilots while actioning a forest fire west of Fort Simpson. First responders have confirmed the fatalities of the three members onboard today.”

Buffalo Airways has operated a fleet of fire suppression aircraft in NT for 26 years.

A bird dog aircraft provides a lead-in to ensure the flight path and drop height is safe for its partner air tanker to follow behind and drop fire suppressants.

NWT Fires said the incident occurred on the FS009 fire. It has provided this update on FS009:

“This lightning-caused fire is located in the Marten Hills area and is currently 100 hectares in size. Crews and tankers are working to suppress its growth. There is no risk to communities, infrastructure or cabins at this time.”

Our sincere condolences go out to the families, friends, and co-workers of the victims.

USFS allows N95 mask use for wildland firefighters

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service announced on Wednesday that it has authorized wildland firefighters to use N95 respirators on the fire line.

A breathing apparatus or mask like an N95 hasn’t historically been a staple of wildland firefighters’ gear, though some have been in testing for years. The added carry capacity is one reason, along with the assumed lack of toxic chemical inhalation, since the fire burns in a natural area free from synthetic materials.

But research has since found that assumption isn’t true. Wildfire can create cancer-causing toxic heavy metals depending on where they burn and the severity of the flames.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Wildfire smoke toxicity worsened by heavy metals in soil, flame intensity

Reducing such hazardous exposure to wildland firefighters was the major reason for the Service’s announcement, according to a press release sent out by officials.

“Secretary Rollins has made it clear that we will no longer stand by as firefighters face long-term health risks just from doing their job,” said Forest Service Deputy Chief of Fire and Aviation Management Sarah Fisher in the release. “The action we are taking today is about doing right by the people who put themselves between our communities and escalating wildfire threats. Improving respiratory safety and expanding decontamination practices are practical, common-sense measures that will make a real difference on the ground.”

The authorization allows N95 use and requires training and standardized decontamination protocols, like mandatory showers, gear cleaning and clean-air recovery, which are compliant with Occupational Safety and Health Administration requirements.

“Firefighters who are healthy, informed, and supported are better positioned to do their jobs effectively and safely,” officials said in the press release. “The Forest Service is committed to that outcome and will continue to advance improved health protection measures with the Department of the Interior.”

Click here to read the full release.

Wildfire risk to heighten globally in 2026 due to ‘historic’ El Niño

Satellite imagery showing the difference from average sea surface temperatures at the equator in the tropical Pacific Ocean (depicted using various shades of red and orange for warmth) during the first week of June 2026, as compared with the baseline used by NOAA’s Coral Reef Watch. (Image credit: NOAA Satellites )

A potentially historic El Niño is all but confirmed for 2026, heightening wildfire and other risks across the globe, according to recent reports from the world’s forecasting agencies.

The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre has determined that an El Niño event this year was “virtually certain” based on all seasonal forecast modelling systems. The fluctuating water-temperature climate pattern of the tropical Pacific Ocean is also forecast to reach “unprecedented” intensity, compounding the high likelihood of wildfires in numerous regions worldwide.

Although usually associated with countries close to the Pacific, the impacts of this El Nino are predicted to extend far beyond, including into Europe, with heatwaves and drought more likely.

The last El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in record global temperatures registered in 2024. But no two El Nino events are the same. The full picture is complex and contains many variables as this graphic shows:

Major impacts and main climate effects of El Niño events. Sources: JRC analysis and Lenssen et al. (2020).

Extreme heat is set to build across the tropics and subtropics from September, and is expected to peak between December 2026 and February 2027, persisting into the spring, the agency said in a press release.

“Unusually warm weather is expected to spread across much of the world, with the warmth growing stronger as El Niño intensifies,” according to the release. “The regions most likely to feel this are in North and South America, Central America, Africa, the Euro-Asian continent and Australia.”

At the beginning of June, the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization predicted the probability of El Niño through November to be close to or above 90%.

Two weeks later, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service declared it too, noting that in the US an El Nino tends to be stronger in winter months, with warmer than usual winters.

This map shows the typical impacts of El Nino to the continental U.S. and Canada during Northern Hemisphere winter. (Image credit: NOAA)
This map shows the typical impacts of El Nino to the continental U.S. and Canada during Northern Hemisphere winter. (Image credit: NOAA)

Last week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology officially declared it. While predicting lower rainfall and higher temperatures over the current southern hemisphere winter the Bureau and other experts are cautious on the fire potential for the next summer.

“Large-scale climate drivers like El Niño can influence broad conditions such as temperature and rainfall, but they do not determine whether fires start or how they behave on the ground. Bushfires remain a complex, localised hazard that depend on whether the right conditions and an ignition coincide,” said CSIRO Principal Research Scientist Dr Andrew Sullivan.

“The relationship between El Niño and bushfire activity is not straightforward. The occurrence of an El Niño event does not translate directly into bushfire occurrence or impacts, and some of Australia’s more severe fire seasons have occurred in non-El Niño years.”

Idaho hits $0 for wildfire suppression funding as governor claims state is prepared

Idaho officials said the state is prepared to respond to a forecast extremely active peak fire season, despite the state legislature’s funding for wildfire activities running dry.

Idaho Gov. Brad Little, at a June 16 press conference, joined state, local, and federal partners to say the state is prepared – with the state’s firefighting resources fully staffed and investments in forest management and federal partnerships. The preparation, however, was called into question when it was revealed just before the press conference that the state legislature’s funds for wildfire response had hit $0.

State lawmakers voted to transfer $32.8 million to the wildfire deficiency fund on July 1, the first day of fiscal year 2027, but Little said the state would “pretty much burn through” the funds, given that an active fire season would cost the state $70 million or more, according to the Idaho Capital Sun. Any funds spent over that $32.8 million would be paid using “deficiency warrants,” or bills applied to future sessions of the Idaho Legislature, that would worsen an already tight budget squeeze.

“If we have an above-average fire season, we’ll probably run out of (the funding),” Little said at the press conference. “We’re going to be okay for a while, as long as we don’t have an abnormal fire year.”

Idaho is expected to have an abnormally active fire year. The National Interagency Coordination Center’s wildland fire outlooks list Idaho as having “significant” wildland fire potential from July through September, set up by above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation worsening drought throughout the majority of the state.

PREVIOUS COVERAGE: Record-low water shortages expected ahead of very active US wildfire season

“Above normal fire potential is forecast for portions of northern Idaho and southwest Montana in July, expanding to all of north Idaho and southwest Montana in August,” the National Interagency Fire Center said during the June release of the report. “Above-normal fire potential will also expand to all the northwest, including all of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwest Montana.”

Credit: NIFC

From forest to front door – understanding wildfire spread into communities

Researchers burn an accessory dwelling unit (ADU) in a controlled test, to study the impacts of wildfire. (Image courtesy Michael Gollner)

By Ty Burke

As California’s population boomed — from 10 million in 1950 to over 40 million today — the number of people living in fire-prone areas multiplied. Over the decades, millions of new homes and commercial buildings sprang up to accommodate the needs of the state’s growing population, and many of those structures stand in areas prone to wildfires.

As a result, more communities are now in harm’s way. The 2025 Palisades and Eaton fires in Los Angeles show exactly how destructive urban wildfires can be. More than 16,000 buildings were destroyed, and 31 people lost their lives. By the time the recovery is complete, the cost of repairing the damage from those wildfires could approach a quarter of a trillion dollars.

This article appeared in Berkeley Engineer magazine, Summer 2026

“We are front and center in the wildfire crisis,” says Michael Gollner, associate professor of mechanical engineering at UC Berkeley. “California is beautiful, but everything aligns for fires here. We need to learn to adapt, to limit the damage that wildfires cause. A lot of people live in fire-prone areas, and most of the country’s major urban wildfire disasters have happened in California.”

Despite the thousands of wildfires in California each year, we still don’t know that much about them — especially when it comes to how they spread in urban areas. The wildland-urban interface is the zone in which buildings and infrastructure border natural areas. Homes in this zone are at higher risk of burning, but quantifying that risk is challenging.

Until recently, the mathematical models used to predict wildfire spread largely ignored these areas. Where a simulated wildfire reached a developed community, the models treated the land as unburnable. Which, of course, it’s not.

“Understanding fire spread between built structures is a totally different equation than understanding fire spread in wildlands,” says Gollner. “It’s different physics, and until recently, it was not well enough understood to be integrated into the parameters of mathematical models. We still can’t do everything at scale, but we’ve begun to be able to simulate wildfires in urban areas.”

In the wildland-urban interface, fires will move freely between natural landscapes and developed lands. And the 2025 Palisades fire did exactly that. What began in the brush of the Santa Monica Mountains swept through residential neighborhoods in Pacific Palisades, before it crossed Mandeville Canyon and burned other parts of Greater Los Angeles. But predicting, and ultimately slowing, this kind of fire behavior remains a complex problem.

“To make good decisions about the risks communities face, we need more science,” Gollner says.

Professor Michael Gollner with a fire whirl in his lab. (Photo by Adam Lau/UC Berkeley Engineering)
Professor Michael Gollner with a fire whirl in his lab. (Photo by Adam Lau/UC Berkeley Engineering)

Evolving science for a changing landscape

The increase in wildfires tearing through California communities isn’t just due to population growth. Historically, much of California burned every 7–15 years, a natural process that thinned forests and removed accumulated ground fuel.

“It’s actually restorative,” says Scott Stephens, a professor in the Rausser College of Natural Resources. These periodic fires created forests that were more fire resistant. Over time, California’s forests came to be dominated by fire- and drought-resistant pine trees, which shade the forest floor.

But a century of fire suppression policies and logging has changed the composition of our forests. As many of the largest pines were felled, forests grew thicker and less fire-resistant tree species flourished. Now, California’s forests are much more flammable than they once were.

“The effects have been profound,” says Stephens. “The fires we have today would have been unimaginable 50 years ago. In California, we put out more than 98% of wildfires, but the 2% that we can’t put out are responsible for burning 95% of the land.”

And the amount of land that has burned in California is mind-bending: more than 12 million acres since 2013. That’s an area more than twice the size of New Jersey. The damage hasn’t been confined to forests and chapparal, but has also torn through some of California’s largest cities.

As wildfires push into urban areas, they behave in ways scientists are only beginning to understand. But Gollner is figuring out how to predict what urban wildfires will do next — by turning fire modeling into a complex, evolving problem.

“There are so many things that go into modeling a fire; you need to account for the weather, the fuel chains and the fire itself,” Gollner says. “We are working on how to do those calculations for urban areas, but there are so many unknowns and uncertainties. Sometimes, we are just revealing what those uncertainties are. Other times, we are starting to put numbers to them.”

In research published in 2024, Gollner developed a landscape-scale model for predicting the spread of fire in the wildland-urban interface. Unlike other models that existed at the time, Gollner’s addressed the spread of wildfire through both vegetation and buildings.

“Other models treated them separately, but ours seamlessly couples the two,” says Dwi Marhaendro Jati Purnomo, a post-doctoral scholar in Gollner’s lab who led the development of the model. “It’s driven by the key mechanisms of fire spread in the wildland-urban interface: direct flame contact, radiation and firebrands — airborne pieces of burning material that are responsible for igniting many of the buildings that burn in wildfires. Our modeling framework also incorporates heat flux — the amount of heat that travels through materials. That allows us to quantify the hazard to nearby houses.”

Gollner and Purnomo tested their model using data from two highly destructive events from California’s recent past — the 2017 Tubbs and Thomas fires. And they were able to fine-tune the model to make predictions with a high degree of accuracy. Their model predicted the extent of the fires with more than 85% accuracy and the number of damaged houses with roughly 70% accuracy. Importantly, the researchers found that nearly a third of house ignitions were caused by embers, something ordinary Californians can take meaningful steps to guard against.

“There are two basic types of mitigation. The first is defensible space — basically clearing flammable things away from a house and reducing the amount of fuel available to a fire,” says Gollner. “The other is to harden a house, to make it more difficult for the building to ignite by changing the windows and siding or by installing ember-resistant vents. These are simple-ish things, but hardening a house can be expensive.”

Fire-resistant siding is made of non-combustible materials like stucco or metal, and installing it in a new build doesn’t cost that much more than traditional wooden siding does. But the costs of replacing the siding on existing houses can be high, especially when you multiply those costs across millions of houses. Gollner’s modeling is helping identify in which areas this type of mitigation will have the greatest impact.

“That’s the billion-dollar question,” he says. “We don’t have all the tools yet, but we do know that if you did all these things and have good spacing between your house and your neighbour’s house, you will be way better protected. But it takes money and time, so there is a question of exactly how much needs to be done. A house right next to the forest? Sure, we need to do that. But how far into a community do these mitigations need to go? We still don’t know exactly in which areas these investments will have the biggest payout.”

Developing a playbook to fight fire in urban areas

Gollner’s ultimate goal is to craft a playbook for wildfires that communities can use to protect themselves. Right now, there isn’t one. But Gollner’s work to quantify wildfire risk is giving communities the data they need to set priorities. And one of the communities doing that is Berkeley.

“Berkeley is in a fire-prone landscape,” he says. “We had major fires in 1991 and 1923, and we have mostly forgotten about them. But the weather conditions that happened during those fires will happen again; we just don’t know when those conditions will occur.”

Even the tiniest spark can generate an inferno, he adds. And whether one does is largely a matter of luck. In the right conditions, a fire can spread rapidly. Right now, there’s little to stop a fire from spreading through the tightly packed wood-framed buildings that line Berkeley’s narrow streets.

“How destructive a fire is depends a lot on the direction and the timing of the winds,” Gollner says. “If the winds only last a few hours, the fire might stop, but when a wildfire is raging at peak intensity, there is just not a lot that humans can do about it.”

When a wildfire enters a city, it sends embers flying everywhere, and they can ignite buildings by the thousands. No fire department in the world can handle a hundred burning buildings, much less a thousand, and no amount of investment in firefighting will allow us to extinguish urban fires on this scale.

“There is just no way to tackle this problem with an active approach,” says Gollner. “We need to limit the ways fire can spread. If we can do those simple things, we can make a difference.”

But you need to get people on board, and that isn’t always easy. In January 2026, the City of Berkeley implemented an ordinance called Effective Mitigations for Berkeley Ember Resilience (EMBER). It mandates a five-foot vegetation-free buffer zone around houses and also identifies areas at the highest risk from wildfires as priorities for enforcement. 

Under EMBER, fines for non-compliance can reach up to $500 per day, and some local opponents have argued that EMBER is overly intrusive. But Gollner’s research highlights the value of defensible space. In a paper published in 2025, he found that houses with a five-foot, vegetation-free buffer were much less likely to be destroyed in a wildfire.

Gollner conducted a machine learning analysis of data collected on the ground after five major historical fires in California’s wildland-urban interface — the 2017 Tubbs, 2017 Thomas, 2018 Camp, 2019 Kincade and 2020 Glass fires — and found that houses with a vegetation-free buffer area were much more likely to survive a wildfire. The difference is stark. Just 20% of houses without a buffer survived these wildfires, while 37% of houses with a buffer did. In a major urban wildfire, that 17% difference could add up to hundreds or even thousands of houses saved.

“Clearing the vegetation that is closest to the house isn’t perfect, but it is one of the cheapest and easiest ways to reduce risk,” Gollner says. “The vegetation that’s right there has the highest likelihood of igniting a house. But people can be really protective of their plants, and some people are just opposed to doing it.”

But retired fire chief Dave Winnacker is using the data to convince people of the value in compliance. Winnacker spent about 20 years in the fire service in Fresno, Alameda County and the Moraga-Orinda Fire District. And now, he’s returned to his hometown of Berkeley to help the city implement EMBER.

“Dr. Gollner’s research has really given Berkeley a theoretical grounding to operationalize this initiative,” says Winnacker.

In the same 2025 paper, Gollner calculated that implementing both house hardening and defensible space could prevent the loss of 52% of all the structures lost in the major urban wildfires he studied.

“Fire is opportunistic,” Winnacker says. “And it will find a way to spread. But when you take mitigation measures, communities won’t burn. In the last 20 years, 80,000 homes in California burned, give or take. Halving that number to 40,000 homes still would not be great. But it sure would be a lot better than 80,000.”


When more people adopt defensible space and harden their houses, the effect is amplified. Each house that doesn’t burn breaks a chain of ignitions — it means fewer houses burn overall. That’s a message that Winnacker has taken to the public.

“Urban fire is a big macro-phenomenon, and it is hard for people to connect the dots between these micro-mitigations, which can seem inconsequential, and this huge destructive thing,” Winnacker says. “But Dr. Gollner’s work allows us to do that. It helps us understand the drivers of loss in the urban environment. And from there, we can prioritize mitigations, so that we get the greatest value from a risk reduction standpoint. Otherwise, we would just be guessing.”

Smoke travels from one accessory dwelling unit to another during a controlled burn experiment. (Image courtesy Michael Gollner)
Smoke travels from one accessory dwelling unit to another during a controlled burn experiment. (Image courtesy Michael Gollner)

Read more on this research in the Berkeley Engineer.

Significant wildfire activity heading into Juneteenth weekend drives National Preparedness Level increase

The National Interagency Fire Center increased the National Preparedness Level to PL3 on Thursday, marking a shift toward needed national support as the U.S. nears peak fire season.

The increase was driven by significant wildland fire activity across the country, with the potential of additional large fires remaining elevated in the days ahead, the NIFC said. Nearly 5,000 personnel are actively assigned to fires nationwide,

Over 33,000 fires have been reported and 2.6 million acres burned so far in 2026, far above the 10-year average year-to-date of 24,685 fires and 1.6 million acres burned.

“While current resource capability remains sufficient to sustain incident operations, geographic areas are increasingly utilizing national support to accomplish incident management objectives,” the Center said in its latest update. “The increase reflects growing demand for firefighting resources and heightened fire potential across several regions of the country.”

Fire activity is largely concentrated across the Northwest, Great Basin, Southwest and Rocky Mountain areas, Center officials said. Severe large fires recently triggered evacuations and threatened structures in both Washington and Oregon. New fires in Idaho, Nevada, Arizona and Nebraska are also rapidly growing.

Fire risk remains elevated throughout the western third of the U.S. due to persistent triple-digit heat, single-digit relative humidity, and breezy conditions, according to the Center’s report. Incoming thunderstorms with only spotty rainfall also heighten wildfire risk over the northern Sierra, southeast Arizona, southern New Mexico, and west Texas.

“Unprecedented” snow drought and record-low water shortages are expected ahead of what is forecast to be a very active fire season, according to federal officials.

“Many of the rivers are likely to experience well-below median streamflows, which may rival the lowest flows on record for the region,” the Service said in the Department’s most recent Water and Climate Update. “Water shortages are anticipated in many locations, especially for entities that rely on surface streamflow water, without the benefit of having access to stored reservoir water.”

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