Socially vulnerable groups are significantly over-represented in high wildfire-risk areas across the United States and should be prioritized for targeted mitigation measures, research has found.
A study in the International Journal of Wildland Fire identified census tracts across the US where high wildfire risk and high social vulnerability intersect – and found that American Indian/Alaska Native communities, Hispanic/Latino residents, and mobile home residents are disproportionately concentrated in these areas.
Most of these tracts are located in less populated areas of western and southern states, and concentrated mainly in California, Texas, and Florida.
Exploring the spatial association between wildfire risk and social vulnerability in continental US, International Journal of Wildland Fire.
With nearly 21 million people living in these high-risk, high-vulnerability zones, this research has implications for wildfire mitigation and disaster preparedness, particularly for communities that have historically been underserved.
This is not the first study to make the connection – lead author Professor Jayajit Chakraborty from the University of California, Santa Barbara, explains that we have known for a while that vulnerable communities bear a disproportionate burden from wildfires.
“What we are doing differently is asking where exactly does this happen and using rigorous spatial statistics to answer that,” said Prof Chakraborty.
The study overlaid a number of databases and analytical tools to get the result – mainly, the bivariate Local Indicators of Spatial Associations (LISA), and the Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) that was developed by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to map areas of vulnerability for public health and emergency planners.
The use of LISA at a national scale provided spatial precision. “Previous studies have documented the relationship but had not really pinned down the specific neighborhoods where high wildfire risk and high social vulnerability coincide spatially. That’s the gap we were trying to fill”
So, what does a more precise approach for these communities actually look like? It really depends on the community, Prof Chakraborty says.
“For Indigenous communities, for example, it’s not just about dropping fire mitigation resources in – it’s about meaningful consultation, respecting tribal governance, and supporting things like culturally grounded prescribed burn programs that many tribes have practiced for generations.
“For Hispanic communities, a lot of it comes down to language access and trust issues. Evacuation notices that only exist in English, or disaster relief programs that exclude undocumented residents – these are fixable barriers.
“For mobile home residents, the needs are more physical – these homes are genuinely more fire-vulnerable, and their residents often don’t have the financial resources to make improvements on their own, so you are looking at approaches like subsidized retrofitting or community-level preparedness programs.
“The broader point here is that the High–High tracts identified in this study essentially provide a spatial targeting layer — agencies and decisionmakers can overlay this map with existing program boundaries identify gaps and prioritize investments in overburdened communities.
But how do we explain the LA fires of 2025 that burnt into some of the most expensive real estate in the country?
“The rich can be exposed to wildfire, but they are not socially vulnerable to it in the same way. The findings from our IJWF article show it is American Indian, Hispanic, and mobile home communities – disproportionately in rural western and southern areas – who face the combined burden of high risk and low adaptive capacity,” said Prof Chakraborty.
“The LA fires were a high-visibility event in an economically affluent area; the communities our research identifies face similar or greater physical risk with far fewer resources to prepare, respond, or recover.”
Support for a once bipartisan piece of wildfire-focused legislation has faltered after Republican lawmakers added a repeal of the Roadless Rule.
Energy and Natural Resources Committee Chairman Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) proposed the amendment to the Wildfire Prevention Act, which would increase fuels treatments in federal forests and had support from both Democrats and Republicans before the amendment. The nullification of the rule dissolved that support.
The “Roadless Rule” prohibits new road construction and intensive logging in millions of acres of federal forest. The Trump administration has been targeting the rule for years, with the current Forest Service leadership announcing a draft proposal to rescind it in June 2025.
The inclusion of the Roadless Rule’s repeal triggered criticism from Democratic senators on the committee, with Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM) saying the bill had become a “Trojan Horse” for the repeal.
“We took a previously, largely bipartisan, constructive wildfire effort, and now it has become a partisan pitched battle over repealing roadless areas,” Heinrich said. “That is a poster child for how not to get successful legislation done, and I am disappointed.”
Lee previously called the Roadless Rule an “environmental disaster” and claimed the rule hampers forest thinning and fire prevention. But the rule’s text does allow prescribed burning and fuel treatments.
The Wildfire Prevention Act passed the committee along party lines, 11-9, but Democratic lawmakers said the inclusion of the repeal guarantees the larger bill’s failure.
The “very active” fire season predicted for the U.S. since the beginning of the year may largely kick off this week, according to forecasts from the National Interagency Fire Center.
Elevated fire weather conditions are set across the Southwest and southern Great Basin regions due to strong winds, dry conditions and very warm temperatures, according to the Center’s forecasts. Much of the Southwest, Great Basin, and far north are expected to experience significant wildland fire potential throughout June, according to the Center’s outlooks.
Much of Arizona, Utah and southeast Nevada specifically are at high risk of wildfire ignitions this week, mainly due to windy conditions, data from the Center’s daily forecasts showed.
“Minimum relative humidity will fall to 5-15% across Arizona, Utah, and Nevada, with southwest winds 10-20 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph across exposed terrain and ridges, with the strongest winds in southern Nevada, southwest Utah, and northwest Arizona,” Center officials said.
Wildfire crews have already been busier than usual this year. More than 31,511 fires have burned almost 2.5 million acres nationwide, which are above the 10-year averages of 22,270 fires and 1.27 million acres, according to the Center.
Credit: NIFC
Peak wildfire season nears as Western states are expected to face water shortages due to extremely low streamflows throughout the spring, according to the U.S. Natural Resources Conservation Service.
“Many of the rivers are likely to experience well-below median streamflows, which may rival the lowest flows on record for the region,” the Service said in a previous Water and Climate Update. “Water shortages are anticipated in many locations, especially for entities that rely on surface streamflow water, without the benefit of having access to stored reservoir water.”
The low streamflows were blamed primarily on record-low snowpack during the winter months, which also melted weeks earlier than normal. The “unprecedented” snowpack levels were the lowest in 40 years, and researchers said the only way extreme fire chances could be reduced was through a “major switch” in circulation patterns. So far, there’s nothing in season forecasts or weather models that indicate such a switch is on its way.
The U.S. House Committee on Appropriations submitted its funding plan for the Department of the Interior, the environment and related agencies this week, with a specific focus on the fire service. Lawmakers said the funding was in line with the Trump Administration’s proposal to unify the DoI’s firefighting activities.
The nearly $1.2 billion in proposed funding for the Wildland Fire Service is a fraction of the original $6.5 billion proposed for the service in the 2026 appropriations act, which was blocked by a bipartisan group of Senators. Lawmakers were allegedly only able to get the $1.2 billion by significantly cutting the funding of the Environmental Protection Agency.
“In order to fund these priorities at necessary levels, the Committee has reduced funding for the majority of accounts in the bill,” lawmakers said in their funding report. “This includes a reduction of $1,781,584,000, or 20 percent, reduction to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) below the fiscal year 2026 enacted level.”
The Republican and Democratic Senators who previously blocked the funding said they couldn’t endorse the consolidation of federal wildland firefighting forces from both the Department of the Interior and the U.S. Forest Service, which manages more than two-thirds of the nation’s firefighting resources, into a single agency. They said such a combination of resources could only be approved by an act of Congress, and ordered the agency to conduct a study on the feasibility of such a consolidation.
The House Committee’s members acknowledged the study, and said the Trump Administration is in the process of contracting with an independent research organization to complete the study.
The funding proposal addressed numerous other wildland fire subjects, including:
$2.6 billion for wildland fire management under the U.S. Forest Service.
$185 million for hazardous fuels management activities, including $18 million for the Community Wood Energy Program’s sawmilling equipment.
$5 million for forest restoration and seedling replanting activities, specifically in the Pacific Region.
$3 million for Wildland Urban Interface fire research.
$2.5 million for purchasing generators for Tribal Health Programs to mitigate issues for de-energization protocols during wildfires.
$1.6 million to the Forest Service for AI wildfire modeling research near the National Interagency Fire Center.
Europe has boosted its wildfire preparations ahead of a forecasted busy 2026 season by deploying its largest force yet of firefighters, aircraft and other experts across the continent.
The announcement comes as the World Meteorological Organisation issued a Global Seasonal Climate Update that, while highlighting the development of a strong El Nino around the Pacific, also warns of hot, dry conditions elsewhere.
“For the June-July-August season, forecasts project a nearly universal dominance of above-normal temperatures in nearly all parts of the globe,” the WMO says.
The European Commission announcement follows a record 2025 season where 1 million hectares across Europe were burned. Its 2026 pre-positioning program includes:
777 firefighters from 14 countries to be deployed across high-risk areas in 6 countries in the south of Europe
22 firefighting airplanes and 5 helicopters from the EU fleet to support countries under pressure
21 certified teams ready to intervene all over Europe
The Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) in Brussels is the heart of the EU Civil Protection Mechanism.
In addition, the EU is launching a new European regional firefighting station in Cyprus this year to strengthen wildfire preparedness and response capacities across Europe and the South Mediterranean region. The station will have the capacity to pre-position 6 aircraft and host trainings for civil protection practitioners.
Canada’s long-term pledge to build up its aerial firefighting resources has begun with the lease of 12 aircraft that will be shared nationally for the 2026 wildfire season.
As reported in March, Canada has put aside $316.7 million over the next five years for the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC) to manage a national fleet of aerial firefighting resources for all provinces and territories based on current and urgent needs.
The fleet will increase Canadian surge capacity during periods of elevated wildfire activity, support rapid deployment of resources, address provincial and territorial gaps, and enhance Canada’s wildfire resilience.
This summer, Canadian wildfire agencies will have access to the following resources: • Four Dash 8-400 AT (Land-based Airtankers), one TBM960AA (Birddog), and two Forward Attack Tanker Bases through Conair Group Inc. • Three Airbus AS332 L & L1 (Heavy rotary wing helicopters) through Coldstream Helicopters Ltd. • Two Sikorsky S-92A (Heavy rotary wing helicopters) through VIH Helicopters.
These aerial assets will be strategically propositioned in Canada based on provincial and territorial need, fire activity, and preparedness level. However, aircraft can be relocated at any time to address the current situation. The operational contract period runs May 1 to September 27, 2026. All three suppliers are based in British Columbia.
CIFFC will coordinate the aerial assets on behalf of member agencies, said Kelsey Winter, Executive Director of CIFFC. “A pan-Canadian response that assists our provincial and territorial partners in reducing the increasing impact of wildfires is paramount. Together, we are building a more wildfire resilient future for our country.”
Conair proudly claims it manufactures, owns and operates the world’s largest fleet of fixed-wing aerial firefighting aircraft.
“For the first time, Canada has its own national fleet to bolster provincial and territorial firefighting capacity.” said Chris Niemann, President and CEO of Conair. “We are proud to be part of this moment in history, committed to supporting firefighters across the country using our aircraft, made in Canada and operated in Canada, supported by hundreds of Conair aerospace professionals.”
Conair promotes the Dash 8-400 as a proven platform, with more than two dozen operating worldwide. It delivers large retardant drops to slow fire progression, working alongside water scoopers to cool flames. It also operates from shorter runways closer to fire prone areas and can reload in seven minutes. Conair makes four new Dash 8-400 airtankers every year with a capacity to increase production if called upon.
Extinction has always been a risk on Santa Rosa Island. Researchers have hailed the California island as having the most prolific aleontological record of extinct species such as pygmy mammoth, flightless sea duck, vampire bat and giant deer mouse.
The environment is now home to animals and plants found nowhere else on Earth, earning its nickname “Galapagos of North America.” A human-caused wildfire now threatens those unique animals and plants with extinction, according to on-site fire officials.
Over a third of the island has burned since a wildfire started on May 15, which burned 18,379 acres and was at 87% containment as of Sunday morning, according to Channel Islands National Park officials. Santa Rosa is one of the five Channel Islands.
Credit: NASA
There is relatively less fire on the Channel Islands than on the mainland because ignition sources are much less common there and the foggy maritime climate generally limits fire spread.
“Several island taxa have relaxed fire-adapted traits such as serotiny and seed germination characteristics,” officials said on the park’s website. “Records from both Santa Cruz and Santa Rosa show that fire frequencies increased over the last 5,000 years and reached their peaks during the historic period, approximately the last 200 years.”
A major concern of officials was the status of the island’s Torrey Pines, the rarest pine tree in North America. The trees once dominated the island’s “Cloud Forest” of plants that harvested water from the heavy fog that rolled across the island and condensed on leaves and twigs. Although small pockets of the trees did burn with higher intensity, recent drone imagery showed that groves of Torrey Pines still exist and remain largely intact.
“The National Park Service has special firefighters, known as fire effects crews, that will go to this area, taking measurements such as specific fire severity calculations and observations,” officials said in a recent update. “This is not just a single snapshot but will be part of long-term monitoring of effects to better understand fire in this ecosystem.”
Credit: Inciweb
Officials were already working to restore the island’s native ecosystem before the fire started. Grazing that started during European colonization of the area in the mid-1800s eliminated over 75% of the entire island’s native vegetation, park officials said.
While many native plants have since been reestablished throughout the island, the Cloud Forest hasn’t recovered. Grazing animals stripped the soil down to bedrock and severely increased soil erosion, causing trees to topple. Crews responding to the fire are reportedly aware of this ongoing issue and are working with biologists, archeologists and cultural specialists to minimize ground disturbance and soil compaction.
“This work will reduce soil erosion potential by spreading and slowing water flow and increasing soil cover, discouraging undesired access, and reducing visual impacts of fire suppression activities,” crews said.
The wildfire’s effect on the vulnerable environment’s recovery won’t be fully understood until researchers analyze the landscape after the fire is 100% contained.
Germany is a little smaller than California but has almost twice as many people, about 84 million. Though the country is densely populated and industrialized in large areas, about 30 per cent is defined as forest land – half the trees are conifers – and 50 per cent of Germany’s land mass is used for agriculture. There is a lot of vegetation.
A first glance at available data shows no real wildfire problem in Germany, but the country faces more wildfires and an increase in fire intensity. In addition, wildfires on military ranges with unexploded explosive ordinance (UXO) contamination from two world wars and the training areas used during the Cold War create significant problems.
Fires on UXO-contaminated areas are difficult to fight considering that ground forces must stay away 1000 meters from the fire because of the imminent risk of exploding UXOs; the use of aircraft is hampered by the high altitude at which they must fly, for the same reason.
The long-lasting drought from 2018 to today – which resulted 2022 being the first real fire season in Germany with several large campaign fires – has led to predictions that the fire regime and fire behavior from the Mediterranean areas will extend slowly but steadily north in the next 20 to 30 years or even sooner.
Wildfires on military ranges with unexploded explosive ordinance (UXO) contamination from two world wars and the training areas used during the Cold War create significant problems. Photo: Jan Südmersen, @fire and Detlev Maushake, WAldbrandteam.
In Germany, fire suppression is generally provided by municipal fire departments. Beside the armed forces fire service there are no federal- or state-owned fire resources due to Germany being decentralized by the allies after the Second World War.
Most fire departments are volunteer – there are about one million volunteer firefighters and just 30,000 paid firefighters in Germany. There are also 330,000 members of the Jugendfeuerwehr, fire explorers for young people from age 10 to 16.
Wildland fire tactics rely heavily on the use of fire engines and tenders, of which there are 40,000 in Germany; specialized brush trucks are still rare and not standardized. The use of handlines exceeding the capability of water shuttle operations is one of the main reasons firefighters lose a lot of battles.
A new training curriculum was put together by a working group over four years that offers guidance in the use of LACES (Lookouts, Anchor Points, Communication, Escape Routes, and Safety Zones) and safe tactics as a base for the general firefighter in Germany.
Regarding air operations, there is only one fixed wing (a PZL 18 Dromader on seasonal contract in one county) and helicopters must be ordered from the army, police or contractors – if they are available, and even if they are, there may be a two-to-six-hour response time. The same applies to heavy equipment such as dozers, which are not commonly used or even considered by incident commanders.
The concept of an autonomous working handcrew is not known to the German fire service so far, because there are simply none (yet). Although many fire departments purchase hand tools such as Pulaskis and combination tools like the Gorgui, members are not sufficiently trained to cut handlines for a prolonged time, and there is no utilization of tactical fire.
Volunteer handcrews?
Predicting the need for specialized units such as handcrews, the non-profit @fire was founded in 2002, followed by Waldbrandteam in 2015; both are non-governmental, independent organizations. The founding teams collected a lot of experience and knowledge from internships with several handcrews and fire services in the United States, Canada and southern Europe.
Coming from outside the traditional fire services (even though the majority of the members in both NGOs are firefighters too), we were mostly considered rogues in the beginning; this did not stop us from continuous networking and providing wildland fire training for hundreds of fire departments (there was no specialized wildland fire training available until 2020), which resulted in more acceptance and integration. Both organizations built an international network, trained members according to international standards such as those of the US-based National Wildfire Coordinating Group, and sent them on internships to gain experience – without any federal funding and by 100 per cent volunteering. Both NGOs have the status of fully accepted civil protection measures by German law.
During the 2022 fire season our NGO-handcrews were requested for several deployments, which clearly pointed out the need for specialized handcrews in Germany. Feedback from the fire departments working with the NGOs on the 2022 fires was positive given the fact that the work was in conjunction with local resources and that the experience was also for training and an exchange of experiences.
Capacity building is beginning
In the aftermath of the 2022 fires, things started to shift. Being Germans, the focus was on purchasing specialized fire trucks, a discussion that resulted in a new variety of brush fire trucks based on the French medium forest fire tanker trucks, but again with no nationwide standardization.
Finally, post-2022, some fire departments started to build specialized units similar to handcrews, following the example of the NGOs. Being asked for advice and training for these units, Waldbrandteam and @fire developed and published a guideline for handcrew capacity building https://www. at-fire.de/veroeffentlichung/fachempfehlung-loeschmannschaften/ (Fachempfehlung Löschmannschaften).
Applying National Wildfire Coordinating Group standards adapted to the German and European setting, we defined two types of handcrews: Type A and B.
Type A handcrews mainly support engine crews with long-distance hoselays and mop-up operations. The idea is that these crews are widespread regional teams organized and founded at the county level with limited training and equipment, so that they are easy to build and to maintain.
Type B handcrews are essentially copies of National Wildfire Coordinating Group Type II Initial Attack crews made for working autonomously, nationwide and even internationally. This requires:
• Adapting fitness standards (pack test, work capacity test)
• Language capabilities (everybody must speak English)
• (Online) NWCG courses: NWCG S-100/130/190/270/ L-180, S-211 and S-212
• Field days or even weeks depending on the level of expertise and training to harden the knowledge
• Personal gear including a line pack
• International deployment preparedness (vaccines, cultural awareness, safety and security)
• Building a tool and logistics cache
• Being self-sufficient for at least 24 hours
• Training with their own tools, but also knowing tactics and tools in Europe
Both @fire and Waldbrandteam are in the process of establishing Type B handcrews.
Type A handcrews mainly support engine crews with long-distance hoselays and mop-up operations. Photo: Jan Südmersen, @fire and Detlev Maushake, WAldbrandteam.
What’s next?
Type A handcrews: There is a growing number of fire departments interested in building Type As. The NGOs, @fire and Waldbrandteam, are building a network, mentoring, and training these new crews. Both organizations are also supporting state fire academies, forestry units and helicopter companies in establishing specialized training to work with the handcrews.
Type B handcrews: The NGOs can deploy their own Type B crew, or a combined crew from both @fire and Waldbrandteam. There is some discussion about
incorporating and cooperating with qualified personnel from larger fire departments and applying to become a certified module of the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism.
Besides funding, the biggest challenge in building the handcrews is to provide (volunteer) members with firsthand training, and then to gain experience on the fireline. It is very difficult to explain the idea and goals plus the structure of the NGO crews to governmental agencies abroad. Often the combination of the terms NGO and volunteers lead to a break in communications and the misunderstanding that that there is a lack of professionalism due to this combination.
A big step forward was the signing of a memorandum of understanding with CalFire in 2024; @fire was given the opportunity to attend classes and send some members to internship with various handcrews.
At this point, the NGOs are reaching out to the international wildland fire community looking for more possibilities for training and internships.
A model for other nations?
Seeing the numbers in Germany you might think that there is a deep conflict between paid and volunteer firefighters, because if you have enough volunteers, you just don’t need paid firefighters.
Honestly, we can’t claim that conflict doesn’t exist. But, beside our passion for wildland fire fighting, we both are members of paid and volunteer fire departments and from our experience, we regularly see the synergy of those systems working together. Not only are volunteer fire departments very successful at providing fire protection for most German communities, but there is also a large number of combined fire departments, where paid firefighters provide the initial response and volunteer firefighters provide manpower at bigger events and specialized units with backup for the full-time, career firefighters. It works!
Transferred to wildland fire
Beside using volunteers in supporting roles, volunteer handcrews – well trained (to the same standards!) and led by experienced crew captains – could be valuable assets in initial attacks and structure defence, especially in large-scale events or intense fire seasons where resources are stretched.
Volunteers are not a substitute for paid, full-time crews because of their limited availability and limited deployment length of 24 to 72 hours.
We are aware that there are many more points for or against this idea, so we invite you to open your mind and discuss it.
What would Ben Franklin (or, in Germany, Conrad Magirus) think of implementing volunteer handcrews to protect their communities?
Jan Südmersen is division chief for the City of Osnabrück Fire Department and the founder of @fire Germany.
Detlef Maushake is a captain with the City of Salzgitter Fire Department and the founder of Waldbrandteam. Maushake was the recipient of the 2019 IAWF Firebreak Award for Excellence in Wildfire Management.
Pilots are being pressured to fly into potentially dangerous fire scenarios or where aircraft would provide little benefit, despite worsening aerial firefighting safety risks, according to a newly released survey conducted by the Australian Transport Safety Bureau.
The federal agency conducted interviews with nine firefighting aircraft operators and 11 fire agency representatives from around Australia to understand the current safety risks in the field. It notes that since 2016, the ATSB has commenced 17 investigations involving aerial firefighting aircraft with incidents steadily increasing.
“Additionally, the ATSB has received anecdotal reports from aerial firefighting pilots and operators concerned about the way activities are coordinated and unsafe tasking. These reports also indicated that many do not want to report occurrences to the ATSB as it may affect their potential to win contracts with firefighting agencies,” the report notes.
The results showed that how safe the industry feels largely depends on who you ask, and both the safety and occupational risks they face.
The majority of aerial firefighting operators said they didn’t feel that agencies valued their safety and had a negative “safety culture.” This contrasted with the answers given by fire agency representatives, who claimed safety had “always been very much at the forefront” of their operations.
“Interviewees perceived a lack of understanding of aviation safety and risk management among senior fire agency personnel across states and territories,” the surveyors said. “Interviewees’ understanding of who was accountable for aerial firefighting safety varied, indicating a lack of clarity on this issue.”
A similar disparity was found in how operators and agency representatives viewed the pressure placed on pilots to fly. While every interviewee acknowledged there was some pressure to fly, they differed on where that pressure came from.
Firefighting operators largely blamed their pressure to fly on agency personnel, describing both overt pressure and implicit pressure like being asked to “take a look” at flight conditions. The responses from agency representatives said the exact opposite, claiming the agencies placed no pressure on pilots and instead blamed either more senior agency personnel or public and political pressure.
“Interviewees believed this was because aircraft, especially LATs, are a very powerful visual representation of agencies’ and governments’ response to bushfires,” the surveyors said. “Three of these interviewees specifically mentioned public or political pressure to fly relating to LATs.”
Numerous interviewees said operators would feel safer if fire agencies enhanced their management and developed a just, learning, reporting, informed and flexible safety culture. A shared desire for standardisation and formilization of policies and procedures was also present in the responses.
“This desire was expressed in relation to aircraft coordination, communication, training, pilot performance, and the identification of risk and monitoring of changing conditions,” Bureau Chief Commissioner Angus Mitchell said in a press release regarding the report.
The survey is part of an ongoing ATSB safety study into Australia’s growing aerial firefighting sector. While findings and recommendations will be saved for the final report, this survey report identified 18 key safety themes.
Around 500 aircraft provided by over 150 operators are used in aerial firefighting operations across Australia.
An Air-Crane helicopter drops muddy water on one of the fires in the East Gippsland region of Victoria, December 30, 2019. Photo by Ned Dawson for Victoria State Government.
The United States’ Natural Resources Conservation Service on Thursday issued a dire forecast for Western states, ahead of what’s expected to be a very active wildfire season.
The Service, overseen by the Department of Agriculture, said many of the states’ rivers are expected to have extremely low streamflows for the spring and summer seasons.
“Many of the rivers are likely to experience well-below median streamflows, which may rival the lowest flows on record for the region,” the Service said in the Department’s most recent Water and Climate Update. “Water shortages are anticipated in many locations, especially for entities that rely on surface streamflow water, without the benefit of having access to stored reservoir water.”
Service officials said the low streamflows will have major impacts on wildlife, recreation, city municipalities, power generation and agriculture.
Credit: USDA
The low streamflows were blamed primarily on record-low snowpack during the winter months, which also melted weeks earlier than normal. The “unprecedented” snowpack levels were the lowest in 40 years, and researchers said the only way extreme fire chances could be reduced was through a “major switch” in circulation patterns. So far, there’s nothing in season forecasts or weather models that indicate such a switch is on its way.
“Unfortunately, this year in the West and southern tier, it has been very dry and very warm,” Physical Sciences Laboratory research meteorologist Andrew Hoell recently said. “We’re talking about some historically warm conditions and at the same time below average precipitation. That sets up the land surface to be able to burn.”
Hoell was the lead author of a recent study that found the “La Niña” and “El Niño” phases of a fluctuating water temperature climate pattern called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation act as accurate predictors of wildfire severity up to a year in advance. The pattern entered its La Niña phase last fall, and was followed by the historic snow drought and early spring heat wave, which created drier and more flammable fuels.
