On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September, 2014.
If the prediction is correct, the Rocky Mountains will get a pass this summer while the highest wildfire potential will be in:
Alaska,
the extreme western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Nevada, and Arizona,
and later in the summer spreading to the upper Midwest and New England.
And we also have a prediction from the National Weather Service and the latest edition of the Drought Monitor.
From NIFC:
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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
June
Above normal fire potential will persist over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Central Alaska and the southeast interior will also experience above normal fire potential. Portions of Northern California, Oregon and Nevada will increase to above normal fire potential as well.
Below normal fire potential will continue for much of the eastern half of the U.S., with the notable exception of the Great Lakes, Northeast and south Atlantic states.
I know climate change can’t be proven or disproven by the the weather for one day, one storm, or even one year, but my very unofficial observations lead me to the realization that there have been many, many record-setting weather events over the last several years.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for areas in California and Alaska. In Southern California the Warning is in effect through Wednesday, where firefighters can expect east to northeast winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph, along with a relative humidity of 5 percent with poor overnight recovery.
In the Susitna Valley in Alaska the Warning is related to a forecast for Tuesday which includes temperatures of 60 to 70 degrees, winds at 15 to 25 mph, and a relative humidity of 13 to 28 percent.
Red Flag Warnings, May 13, 2014
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 9:46 a.m. MDT on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The fire weather outlook for Tuesday shows critical and extreme conditions for portions of Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado, and Kansas.
The Red Flag Warnings for Tuesday show similar conditions:
The Red Flag Warning map was current as of 9:50 a.m. MDT on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for May through August, 2014.
And below that is the latest edition of the Drought Monitor, released today.
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“The May, June, and July through August 2014 significant wildland fire potential forecasts included in this outlook represent the cumulative forecasts of the eleven Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
May
– Above normal fire potential will be over much of California, southern Arizona, and southwestern New Mexico. Must of southern Alaska will have above normal fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will continue for most of the Ohio, Tennessee, and lower Mississippi Valleys, the central Gulf Coast; eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma.
June
– Above normal fire potential will expand to include northern California, Nevada, and much of Oregon. Most of Alaska will continue to see above normal significant fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will continue over the lower and mid-Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.
July through August
– Above normal fire potential will remain in most of California, northern Nevada, and central Oregon. Above normal fire potential will expand into eastern Oregon, southwestern Idaho, and the Great Lakes region.
– Southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico and Alaska will return to normal fire potential.
– Below normal fire potential will cover most of the northern Rockies.”
We have updated information from the National Weather Service about the wind event in southern California that is now predicted to last into Thursday.
1:14 PM PDT TUE APR 29 2014
RED FLAG WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING…
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST COAST COMBINED WITH OFFSHORE FLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING MUCH HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW HUMIDITIES WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS…WITH STRONGEST GUSTS TO AROUND 85 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODERATE STRENGTH AND LESS WIDESPREAD NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY WITH EVEN WEAKER WINDS INTO FRIDAY.
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(Originally published at 8:30 a.m. PDT, April 29, 2014. Updated at 10:30 a.m. PDT, April 29, 2014 to add a new Red Flag Warning issued at 9:35 a.m. MDT.)
Riverside, CA weather forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. (click to enlarge)
Wind gusts exceeding 80 mph and single-digit humidities are in the forecast for some areas of southern California Tuesday and Wednesday. A High Wind Warning issued by the National Weather Service at 1:55 a.m. Tuesday predicted sustained winds of 25 to 40 mph with gusts to 80 today, increasing on Wednesday to 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 85. That forecast applies to Orange County coastal areas, San Bernardino and Riverside county valleys, the Inland Empire, San Diego County valleys, and the mountain areas in the counties of San Bernardino, Riverside, and San Diego.
The graphical forecast (above) for Riverside shows relative humidities as low as 6 and 4 percent today and Wednesday, respectively, and high temperatures of 95 and 100.
In spite of this forecast, and live fuel moistures that are typical of July, there is no Red Flag Warning in effect for the area, only a Fire Weather Watch for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. UPDATE at 10:18 a.m. PDT Tuesday: the NWS issued a Red Flag Warning for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties at 9:35 a.m. PDT
In anticipation of this wind event, CAL FIRE has moved engines and hand crews to the southern part of the state. Air tanker and helitack bases in the area were ordered to be ready to fly at 7 a.m.
Red Flag Warnings (in red) and Fire Weather Watches (in yellow) areas — 8:30 a.m. PDT April 29, 2014
The Red Flag map above was current at 8:30 a.m. PDT, April 29. The revised map below was captured at 10:23 a.m. PDT, April 29, showing all of the Fire Weather Watches had been cancelled, and Red Flag Warning issued for portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.
Red Flag Warnings in southern California — 10:23 a.m. PDT, April 29, 2014
Near-real-time wind speeds in southern California can be monitored at this NOAA website.
Red Flag Warnings can change throughout the day as the National Weather Service offices around the country update and revise their forecasts. For the most current data, visit this NWS site.
