The snow water equivalent is below 50 percent in parts of the southwestern quarter of the U.S.
Continue readingRed Flag Warnings in seven Great Plains states, April 2, 2021
Red Flag Warnings have been issued for areas of the Great Plains on April 2, including sections of North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota, Iowa, Kansas, and Oklahoma.
Very low relative humidity and strong winds are predicted. Most of the warnings expire Friday evening.
The Hot, Dry, Windy Index for April 2 shows elevated wildfire danger for many areas in the western U.S. This is a fairly new tool for fire managers, described as being very simple and only considers the atmospheric factors of heat, moisture, and wind. To be more precise, it is a multiplication of the maximum wind speed and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the lowest 50 or so millibars in the atmosphere. It does not consider fuel moisture.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
All 11 western states except Washington have areas with severe drought
Wildfire potential to remain high through June in the Southwest and Southern Plains
Continue readingForecasters predict enhanced wildfire conditions in the southwest through June
Normal conditions expected for the West Coast and the Northern Rockies during the same time frame
Continue readingPrecipitation brings reduced fire danger to the West
Fire danger expected to be above normal in Western Texas in February
Continue readingThe East is getting warmer and wetter — the West is warmer and drier
Over the last 40 years
Continue readingWildfire potential expected to be above normal in Southern Plains, February through April
Fire potential will increase in the Southwest in March and April
Continue readingForecasters expect Western drought to continue through December
Most of the West and 95 percent of California are in drought. In Southern California drought conditions are predicted to further develop into the winter and persist across the rest of the state.
The western two-thirds of the United States is expected to have lower than normal precipitation the rest of December. All of the country will likely be warmer than normal during the period except for the Southeast and portions of the Northwest.
Strong winds, Red Flag Warnings, and high wildfire danger predicted for Southern California this week
Wildfire danger described as “very critical” by the National Weather Service is in the forecast for Southern California this week. Strong winds gusting at 55 to 70 mph in the mountains is predicted for Wednesday night and Thursday, which will be followed by warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidities into the weekend.
A Red Flag Warning is in the forecast for San Bernardino Wednesday through Saturday.
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index will be increasing Tuesday through Monday.
Higher than normal wildfire potential predicted for the Southern Plains through March, 2021
The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued December 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains through March, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions.
The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
Below:
- An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
- More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
- NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
- Drought Monitor;
- Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
“La Niña and current fuel conditions remain the principal drivers of significant fire potential into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across southern California in December given the dry fuels and lack of forecast precipitation through early December. Wind events may also drive short duration large fire activity in portions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and northern California, especially at lower elevations.
“Warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected across the southern tier of the US this winter and into spring due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing. As a result, drought intensification and expansion across portions of the Plains, Southwest, southern California, Texas, and along the Gulf coast into Georgia are likely. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Southwest, southern and central Plains, and the Southern Area, especially near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts this winter into spring due to these warmer and drier conditions. Strong wind and low relative humidity (RH) events could occasionally increase significant fire potential in portions of the Great Basin as well.”
