Wildfire potential, September through December, 2013

The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2013. If their prediction is correct the world of wildland fire will be slower than normal everywhere in the United States except for California. Here is a summary:

wildfire Outlook Sept 2013


  • Significant fire potential remains above normal for a large portion California due to long term drought and high fire danger indices. This will be exacerbated by the possibility of off-shore flow events developing.
  • The remainder of the western U.S. will return to normal September conditions and begin to transition into regular fall fire activity levels.
  • In the western Great Lakes states conditions will increase to normal and some fall fire activity should be expected
  • The southeast will continue to see periodic moisture and a below normal fall fire season, except possible short term increases across the southern plains.

wildfire Outlook Oct 2013

  • Most of California will return to normal during October as fall develops in earnest. This will be late month for portions of northern California
  • Southwestern California will continue to see above normal significant fire potential through the month and will also have a continued threat of off-shore flow events.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S.

Widfire Outlook Nov-Dec 2013
November and December

  • The remainder of California will return to normal out of season significant fire potential during this period.
  • Below normal fire potential will continue across portions of the eastern U.S

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Author: Bill Gabbert

After working full time in wildland fire for 33 years, he continues to learn, and strives to be a Student of Fire.