On March 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for March through June, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their predictions are correct, some areas in the eastern U.S., especially the midwest, will experience above normal activity off and on through June.
Here are the highlights from their outlook. Click on the images to see larger versions.
March
- Above normal significant fire potential from the southern Plains to the Great Lakes due to dry conditions, especially during windy periods.
- Above normal fire potential will continue across the Hawaiian Islands associated with long term drought.
- Below normal significant fire potential will persist across most of the Gulf and East Coasts and most of Puerto Rico.
- Significant fire potential is normal across the remainder of the U.S., which indicates little significant fire potential.
April
- Above normal significant fire potential will expand across the northern Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes states with increasing dryness in these areas.
- Above normal fire potential will continue across the Hawaiian Islands and develop over south central Alaska.
- Below normal significant fire potential will decrease to just coastal areas of the central Gulf and Atlantic coasts and Puerto Rico.
- Significant fire potential will remain normal across the remainder of the U.S., though potential for pre-greenup fire activity increases through early spring.
May through June
- Above normal significant fire potential will develop in the Southwest and continue across Tennessee, Kentucky, Hawaii and Alaska.
- Fire potential remains below normal along the MidAtlantic coast and Puerto Rico, and drops to below normal in Louisiana and southeastern Texas.
