On April 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for April through July, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their predictions are correct, elevated wildfire potential will be migrating toward the southwest during the four-month period, while it is expected to remain above normal in Hawaii through July.
Here are the highlights from their outlook. Click on the images to see larger versions.
April
- Above normal significant fire potential continues across the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest; the mountains of Virginia and North Carolina; the Hawaiian Islands; and will develop in south central Alaska.
- Below normal significant fire potential will remain across the central Gulf Coast and Puerto Rico.
- Significant fire potential is normal across the remainder of the U.S., though the potential for pre-greenup fire activity increases through early spring.
May
- Above normal significant fire potential will return to normal across the southern Plains through the Upper Midwest.
- Above normal potential will develop in the fine fuel areas of the southern Southwest. Above normal fire potential will continue across the Hawaiian Islands and south central Alaska.
- Below normal significant fire potential will continue across the central Gulf Coast, central Georgia, upstate South Carolina, and eastern Puerto Rico.
- Significant fire potential will remain normal across the remainder of the U.S.
June and July
- Above normal significant fire potential will continue across the southern Southwest and expand into Texas and southern Nevada. Above normal potential will also develop in northwestern Nevada and northeastern California as well as the fine fuel areas of southern California. An area of above normal potential will develop in Florida.
- Significant fire potential will remain normal across the remainder of the U.S.
=================
A bonus: the drought monitor, temperature/precipitation outlooks, and the southern California outlook.
Below is a portion of the outlook produced for southern California. There’s no preparation date, but it covers April through July, 2016. Click on the image below to see a larger version. More regional outlooks can be found HERE.
