Map showing heat detected by a satellite on the Ranch Fire at 1:06 p.m. PDT Nov. 4, 2019.
UPDATED at 6:42 p.m. PDT Nov. 4, 2019
CAL FIRE reported Monday at 6:25 p.m. that the Ranch Fire 21 miles southwest of Red Bluff, California has burned 1,308 acres. Early Monday morning it was 550 acres.
The fire was very active Monday afternoon as firefighters on the ground were assisted by numerous air tankers and helicopters.
The fire was originally reported at Colyer Springs Road and Raglin Ridge Road in Tehama County.
The weather forecast for the fire area on Tuesday calls for moderate fire weather; 77 degrees, relative humidity of 20 percent, and winds from variable directions at 6 mph. Early in the morning the wind will be out of the northwest but will shift throughout the day, becoming southeast by sunset. Similar conditions are expected on Wednesday except the wind will be 6 to 10 mph out of the north after 9 a.m.
Sensors on the GOES-17 satellite detected heat and smoke from the Ranch Fire at 3:06 p.m. PDT Nov. 4, 2019.
The Governor of California, @GavinNewsom, has done a terrible job of forest management. I told him from the first day we met that he must “clean” his forest floors regardless of what his bosses, the environmentalists, DEMAND of him. Must also do burns and cut fire stoppers…..
..Every year, as the fire’s rage & California burns, it is the same thing-and then he comes to the Federal Government for $$$ help. No more. Get your act together Governor. You don’t see close to the level of burn in other states…But our teams are working well together in…..
….putting these massive, and many, fires out. Great firefighters! Also, open up the ridiculously closed water lanes coming down from the North. Don’t pour it out into the Pacific Ocean. Should be done immediately. California desperately needs water, and you can have it now!
The president’s assertion that California’s forest management policies are to blame for catastrophic wildfire is dangerously wrong. Wildfires are sparked and spread not only in forested areas but in populated areas and open fields fueled by parched vegetation, high winds, low humidity and geography. Moreover, nearly 60 percent of California forests are under federal management, and another one-third under private control. It is the federal government that has chosen to divert resources away from forest management, not California…
It is unclear what Mr. Trump meant when we wrote, “You don’t see close to the level of burn in other states.” Below are stats for fire suppression costs and acres burned in California vs. the 11 western states.
On average from 2003-2012, California wildfires had 44 percent of all reported suppression costs in the western 11 states (based on fiscal fire years, October 1 – September 30). Only 24 percent of acres burned were in California, on average, over the same time. Click image to enlarge. Credit: Climate Central.
(Note: if you would like to comment on this article by citing facts or expressing an opinion about wildfire and forest management in California, great, but please remember that at Wildfire Today we avoid political arguing, partisan stereotyping, and personal attacks. More information.)
The fire has burned 77,758 acres north of Santa Rosa, California
The Kincade Fire as seen from the St. Helena North camera at 9:06 a.m. PDT Oct. 27, 2019. Looking toward Healdsburg.
The Kincade Fire that raced across 77,758 acres north of Santa Rosa, California is not completely out and will not be for weeks or months, but there has not been any major spread for days. Satellites that can detect large areas of heat have not found any since November 1, but firefighters are still mopping up, extinguishing Black Oak stumps that the satellites can’t see, and are putting in fireline where needed. They will also need to repair miles of dozer line that helped keep the fire in check.
CAL FIRE reports that 175 homes, 11 commercial structures, and 186 other buildings have been destroyed.
All evacuation orders have been lifted except for three locations: Briggs Ranch Road area, Highway 128 North Knights Valley area to the Napa County Line, and The Chalk Hill Road area. (more information)
Resources assigned to the fire include 356 engines, 45 water tenders, 3 helicopters, 95 hand crews and 28 dozers for a total of 3,929 personnel.
The Press Democrat is not a huge media outlet, but the staff does a great job of covering wildfires in California’s North Bay. A November 1 article that summarizes the evolution of the Kincade Fire since it started on October 23 is evidence of why citizens should support local news and other original reporting. Their in-depth story has excellent photos and graphics as well as details you will not find other places.
It will remain high in southern California through December
The Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center has issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for November through February. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If NIFC’s analysis is correct the only area with above average potential for wildfires during the four-month period is California in November and December. According to the prediction most of the forested or brush-covered lands in the state will have enhanced potential in November. That area will shrink in December to just the southern two-thirds of California.
Below:
An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
Drought Monitor;
Keetch-Byram Drought Index.
From NIFC:
“Entering the outlook period, most states will remain out of fire season in November. Exceptions to this will continue to be California, Colorado, and possibly Texas where drier than average conditions will continue. Expect periodic increases in fire potential and activity during wind events that not only bring strong winds but also drier air that lowers humidity levels to critical levels. The occurrence of such events should begin to diminish in frequency later in the month as the seasonal transition begins to end. Medium range data suggests that conditions across the Southeast will continue to show improvement as the frequency of moisture events continues to increase.”
Screenshot from “Living with wildfire”. Photo by Kari Greer.
Idaho Public Television has produced a 27-minute film that examines the science of living with wildfire.
Here is the official description:
Wildfires have been a way of life in Idaho for millennia. But, recently they’ve become more severe. Fire seasons are starting sooner, fires are burning hotter and they’re lasting longer. That’s caught the attention of fire and climate experts from the University of Idaho. They warn that a warming climate is adding fuel to an already dangerous problem.
It explores many of the issues associated with inevitable fire, and features excellent videography, plus still images taken by and interviews with someone well known to those who frequent the pages of Wildfire Today, photographer Kari Greer.
On October 14 I wrote about criticism and critiques, exploring how in the wildland fire world they can provide a very valuable learning experience or there can be cascading negative repercussions. The outcome depends on the venue in which it is presented as well as the social maturity, motivation, knowledge, and diplomacy of the person expressing their opinion.
When I heard about Former President Barack Obama speaking during a panel discussion on October 29 about the “call out culture”, I thought back to those two articles. Mr. Obama may have been referring to criticism related to social issues or politics, but the concept can also apply to discussions about firefighting and forest management — even to issues as meaningless as aggressively calling someone out for not using the most current version of firefighting jargon approved by the U.S. Forest Service, which I saw happen recently (but thankfully not on Wildfire Today).
Below is a transcript of portions of Mr. Obama’s discussion, and after that, a 2-minute video clip from the event:
“This idea of purity and you’re never compromised and you’re always politically woke and all that stuff — you should get over that quickly.
“The world is messy. There are ambiguities. People who do really good stuff have flaws. People who you are fighting may love their kids and, you know, share certain things with you.
“I do get a sense sometimes now among certain young people, and this is accelerated by social media, there is this sense sometimes of, the way of me making change is to be as judgmental as possible about other people and that’s enough.
“Like if I tweet or hashtag about how you didn’t do something right, or used the wrong verb, then I can sit back and feel pretty good about myself because: ‘Man, did you see how woke I was? I called you out.’
“That’s not activism. That’s not bringing about change. If all you’re doing is casting stones, you are probably not going to get that far.”
