Apparently these people survived driving through the Ute Park Fire in Northeast New Mexico. As a wildland firefighter for decades, I have never driven through that much fire for that length of time. One of the many disastrous things that can happen is that the fire consumes so much oxygen that there is not enough left to support burning the gasoline in the vehicle’s engine — it can quit and the vehicle will stall, probably in the most intense part of the fire.
(Originally published at 1:27 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018)
On June 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for June through September. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If their analysis is correct, in July the areas with the highest potential will move from the Southwest to Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Western Montana, California, and northern Nevada.
Below are:
The highlights of the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts; and,
Drought Monitor.
“Preexisting drought conditions along with continued drier than average conditions across the Southwest allowed for a normal progression of the western fire season across the Four Corners Region and West Texas in May. By month’s end, the focus of activity began to shift westward into Arizona and Southern California. Northern Minnesota and North Dakota experienced above average fire activity as drought conditions took hold. Alaska experienced a slight uptick in fire activity as fuels began to dry. However, the occurrence of periodic precipitation events allowed for a gradual entry into its fire season. Concerning precipitation trends were emerging across California, Oregon, and Washington as most locations received 50 percent of average precipitation or less during May. In the East, many locations across the Southeast, including Florida, received more than 300 percent of average precipitation during the month.
“The combination of deepening drought and the carryover of fine fuels from 2017 is expected to lead to a continuance of Above Normal Significant Large Fire Potential across western portions of the Four Corners Region and Southern California during June. Late June through early July are the peak of fire season across the Southwest and Alaska. During July, activity begins to spread west and north with the drying and curing of the fuels. The Southwestern monsoon begins and reduces fire activity across the Southwest while wetter patterns across Alaska become better established through the month thus drawing its season to a close. These climatologically normal transitions are expected to occur this year as the Western fire season begins to expand and intensify northward.
“Areas of heightened concern will be locations shown on the maps to the left that have both a significant carryover of fine fuels from 2017 and a normal growth of fine fuels this year. In addition, winter snowpack in the higher elevations along the West Coast was well below average, except in Washington State where it was near normal. However, a drier than average spring may offset the average snowpack and melting rates. This should allow for fuels in the mountains to become critically dry by mid-late July. Further inland, the Northern Rockies experienced a very snowy winter, and snowpack is melting at an average rate. However, a wet spring has promoted the growth of a very healthy, continuous crop of fine fuels that should become receptive to fire in the lower and middle elevations by mid to late July.
“August is the peak of the Western fire season. Seasonal transitions focus the fire activity over the northwestern quarter of the country, though California also continues to experience significant activity. With significant carryover of fine fuels from last year and average grass crop growth this year, elevated fire potential is expected through August and early September across many of the lower and middle elevations from the central Great Basin and California northward to the Canadian border. Higher elevations in the mountains may also see elevated fire potential as well should warmer and drier than average conditions develop as expected.
“Typically, a weather event occurs in mid-September that brings moisture to regions experiencing significant fire activity which allows for the western fire season to begin to decrease in activity. Anticipated trends in long range weather data suggests this to be the case this September as ENSO Neutral conditions begin to shift toward El Niño for the fall and winter months.”
(Originally published at 1:02 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018)
This satellite photo shows smoke from three fires at 12:32 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018. Two of the fires are in New Mexico, the Ute Park Fire and the Buzzard Fire. Both are being spread rapidly by strong winds which makes the smoke plume long and narrow.
Satellite photo, smoke from fires in New Mexico and Colorado at 12:32 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018.
In southwest Colorado there appears to be a new fire, possibly north of Durango. I don’t believe it is the Horse Park Fire. Update at 1:34 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018. We just confirmed the smoke in Southwest Colorado is from a new fire about 12 miles north of Durango, the 416 Fire.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Steve. Typos or errors, report them HERE.
The weather forecast for Friday afternoon indicates the potential for very rapid growth of this dangerous fire near Cimarron
Above: Map showing the location of the Ute Park Fire at 2:23 a.m. MDT June 1, 2018. Wildfire Today.
(UPDATED at 2:31 p.m. MDT June 1, 2018)
Fire officials report that the Ute Park fire, burning on private land on both sides of Highway 64 in Northeast New Mexico, has burned an estimated 16,500 acres. The communities of Ute Park and the Village of Cimarron are under mandatory evacuation orders.
(Originally published at 8:44 a.m. MDT June 1, 2018)
(UPDATED at 10:08 a.m. MDT June 1, 2018)
The Ute Park Fire in northeast New Mexico grew very quickly after it was reported at 2:10 p.m. MDT on Thursday 27 miles northeast of Taos. Now well established between Eagle Nest and Cimarron, it is burning on both sides of highway 64, which is closed.
The village of Cimarron (population about 900) and the area around Hummingbird Lane are under evacuation orders. There is a voluntary evacuation in place for Ute Park.
Our very unofficial estimate of the size, based on satellite data from 2:23 a.m. MDT June 1, is that at that time it had burned approximately 12,000 acres.
According to New Mexico Fire Information, approximately 12 unoccupied, non-residential structures at the Philmont Scout Ranch in the Cimarroncita area were destroyed. Another 150 structures remain threatened.
About three hours after the first orders were placed for the fire Bea Day’s Type 1 Incident Management Team was requested. It is unusual for a Type 1 team to be ordered that soon after a fire starts, and is an indication of the rapid rate of spread and the potential of this fire. The team will in-brief at 3 p.m. on Friday.
Soon after it started two very large air tankers (VLAT) were dispatched. By the end of they day the additional aircraft orders included six large air tankers, four helicopters, and Colorado’s MultiMission Aircraft.
Northeast New Mexico is under a Red Flag Warning for Friday. The forecast for the fire area, which is at 7,000 to 8,000 feet, is about as bad as it can get — sustained 25 mph southwest winds gusting between 31 and 36, temperature in the low 80s, and 6 percent relative humidity. These conditions could be very conducive to rapid fire growth to the northeast. Depending on the exact wind direction the fire could seriously threaten Cimarron. Under these conditions it is unlikely that firefighters will be able to do much more than anchor the heel of the fire and perhaps do some structure protection where property owners have already prepared defensible space by clearing away debris and other flammable materials, and are using fire-resistant materials for landscaping and construction.
BLM reports that a command vehicle is believed to have burned during initial attack
Above: 3-D map of the Horse Park Fire at 11:13 p.m. MDT May 30, 2018.
The Bureau of Land Management has released a 24-Hour Preliminary Report indicating that during initial attack on the Horse Park Fire in southwest Colorado on May 27, 2018 a command vehicle was abandoned and is thought to be a total loss. The driver was turning around when the vehicle got stuck. Due to the advancing fire, the driver and passenger had to flee on foot. There were no reports of injuries. In one of the videos shot at the fire you can hear a radio conversation about losing a vehicle but the firefighters made it out.
Wednesday night an infrared mapping flight found that the fire had not spread over the previous 24 hours. However, firefighters are reinforcing firelines in light of a Red Flag Warning and a forecast of strong winds out of the south Thursday afternoon at 22 mph gusting up to 37 mph with relative humidity levels in the single digits.
The Horse Park Fire has burned 1,240 acres in a remote area of San Miguel County 17 air miles south of Naturita and 40 miles west of Telluride.
Map of the Horse Park Fire at 11:13 p.m. MDT May 30, 2018.
Question: Since the Forest Service is now using the term “Fire Year” rather than “Fire Season”, will a large number of seasonal firefighters be converted to work year round?
“An effective response to the more severe fire seasons we have experienced for the past few years requires strong cooperation between federal agencies, states and tribal organizations. No one organization can do it alone. With these strong partnerships, we are prepared for what we expect to be another active fire season. The Forest Service, along with assistance and cooperation with our federal, tribal, state, and local partners and volunteers, is well prepared to respond to wildfires in 2018. This year, the agency has more than 10,000 firefighters, 900 engines, and hundreds of aircraft available to manage wildfires in cooperation with federal, tribal, state, local, and volunteer partners. At this time, there is no national direction to change seasonal tours.”
Question: How will the Forest Service change to deal with the “Fire Year” — the longer fire season?
“Early indicators are predicting that 2018 will be another active fire year. The USDA Forest Service is committed to ensuring adequate assets are available for a safe and effective wildfire response. In preparation for the existing and potential wildfire activity, preparations continue to ensure a robust workforce of firefighters, engines and aviators will be available for nationwide wildfire response throughout the fire year. Assets will continue to be moved around the nation as activity shifts from one geographical area to another throughout the fire year. We continue to do what we have for each and every season, and that is to prepare, plan for, and respond to wildfires throughout the fire year, while supporting our federal, state, local and tribal partners and cooperators.”
Question: On another topic, what are your thoughts about salvage logging after a fire vs. allowing nature to take its course in a burned area? Will we be seeing more salvage logging?
“Salvage logging of dead and dying timber after a fire or other disaster is one way to capture the value of the damaged timber. This timber provides much needed products to the American public. Salvaging the timber can also reduce the fuel loading after harvest creates “slash.” Otherwise, over time, these trees could potentially fuel future fires. The value of the trees harvested can be used to treat the burned area. This treatment may include various restoration projects, including planting trees, shrubs and grasses for wildlife and domestic grazing, and watershed restoration projects such as brush dams to reduce sediment flow. In many instances, there is not a seed source left after an intensive burn to allow an area to return to desired vegetation state naturally. Planting allows an area to return to this desired vegetation state in a much shorter time. Typically only about 20-30 % of the burned area is salvage logged, depending on the intensity of the burn. The rest of the area may not be logged because of nearness to perennial streams, soil stability concerns, or that very few of the trees were damaged in the fire. When evaluating the total burn area, the concern over a lack of snags becomes less problematic. Unless forests are treated to reduce the number of stems and the resultant fuels, future fires will continue to create problems.
“In many of our market areas there is a need to maintain at least a portion of the green timber sale program as the mills are designed for certain tree species or certain products. These mills cannot afford to reconfigure the mill for some of the products that come from salvage material. In addition some defects like blue stain in pines does effect the structural integrity of the product. However, many Americans do not like the looks of this defect. Fortunately, some of this lumber can be used in Cross Laminated Timber (CLT) where this feature is covered up.”
