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Updates on wildfires in Northern New Mexico

Bill GabbertMay 8, 2022May 10, 2022WildfireCalf Canyon Fire, Cerro Pelado Fire, Hermits Peak Fire, New Mexico2 Comments

Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak and Cerro Pelado Fires

Updated at 12:15 p.m. MDT May 9, 2022

3-D Map Calf Canyon - Hermits Peak Fire North Side 1050 p.m. MDT May 8, 2022 — 3-D map. The north side of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire, looking north. The red line was the perimeter at 10:50 p.m. MDT May 8, 2022. The white line was the perimeter 24 hours before. The orange areas indicate extreme heat when the fire was mapped.

Updated to add the 3-D map of the north end of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire.

To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire, including the most recent, click here.

Updated at 9:23 a.m. MDT May 9, 2022

Both of the large wildfires in Northern New Mexico were very active Sunday, pushed by the very strong winds.

Cerro Pelado Fire

The most significant spread of the Cerro Pelado Fire Sunday was on the northeast side south of Highway 4 where it spread for about a mile east and crossed the FR 289 road. When the fire was mapped at 10:24 p.m. Sunday a large spot fire had come very close to crossing the next road to the east, FR 287. The fire grew by more than 3,000 acres Sunday to bring the size up to 40,958 acres.

Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire

Most of the significant growth on the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire was on the north and south sides. When it was mapped at 10:50 p.m. on Sunday the north side, northwest of Cleveland, had advanced for about two miles further north coming close to Holman. There was a large 200-acre spot fire across Highway 518 east of Homan.

The east side of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire still appears to be secure and the Sunday night map showed no change south of Mora and La Cueva near Highway 518. There was also no change near Las Vegas. But about 8 miles west of Las Vegas south of Highway 283 it spread south for an additional mile.

The fire grew by more than 13,000 acres Sunday to bring the size up to 189,767 acres.

Updated at 7:13 p.m. MDT May 8, 2022

Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire

The Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire near Las Vegas, New Mexico made it through Saturday’s wind event without any major devastating runs beyond the existing firelines, but it is not over yet. Red Flag Warnings are again in place Sunday for strong winds, low humidity, and very dry vegetation. The forecast for Sunday and Monday is for sustained 32 mph winds gusting out of the west-southwest at 40 to 48 mph with 8 percent relative humidity.

Operations Section Chief Todd Abel said Saturday evening that one of the most active areas on the fire was on the southwest side near Highway 283. He also said all aircraft working on the fire had to be shut down around noon Saturday when the winds became too turbulent.

The fire has burned 176,000 acres.

Map Calf Hermits Fire 1057 p.m. MDT May 7, 2022 — Map of the Calf Canyon and Hermits Peak Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 10:57 p.m. MDT May 7, 2022. The white line was the perimeter about 48 hours before. The tan dots represent heat detected by a satellite during the 24-hour period ending at 6 a.m. MDT May 8, however clouds as the satellite passed over may have prevented some detections.

Cerro Pelado Fire

On Friday and Saturday most of the spread of the Cerro Pelado Fire was on the northeast side south of Highway 4, and on the southwest side. The 37,525-acre blaze is seven miles west-southwest of Los Alamos, New Mexico.

On the eastern side of the fire the FR 289 road is considered a primary line as the fire continued to advance in that direction pushed by 35 mph winds. A spot fire crossed the road late Saturday afternoon. Crews working that night shift described conditions in the area as “unbearable” due to wind, dust, smoke, and heat. Crews later engaged the spot fire at 3:00 a.m. Sunday when visibility had improved. Most of the movement to the east occurred in steep canyons. FR 289 has been prepped and plumbed with extensive hose lines.

Crews are coordinating with the National Park Service for structure protection in Bandelier National Monument and Valles Caldera National Preserve.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Sunday. The forecast for the fire area is for 39 mph winds gusting out of the west-southwest at up to 55 mph with relative humidity as low as 9 percent. On Monday the wind speeds will drop to 24 mph with gusts of 31 to 39 mph from the west-southwest.

Most of the blaze is in the footprint of the Las Conchas Fire that burned 156,593 acres in 2011. In a trial jurors found that two power companies were 95 percent responsible for starting that fire and the U.S. Forest Service was 5 percent responsible. The cause of the current Cerro Pelado Fire is listed as unknown.

Map of the Cerro Pelado Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 10:31 p.m. MDT May 7, 2022. The white line was the perimeter about 48 hours before. The tan dots represent heat detected by a satellite during the 24-hour period ending at 6 a.m. MDT May 8, however clouds as the satellite passed over may have prevented some detections.

Analysis finds that federal wildland firefighters can’t afford to live in most Western counties

Bill GabbertMay 7, 2022May 7, 2022Uncategorizedhiring, pay, retention45 Comments

Firefighters on the Hermits Peak & Calf Canyon Fire May, 2022. Photo by Rickie Cooper, Security Fire Protection District, Colorado.

An analysis of their pay and costs of living found that federal wildland firefighters can’t afford to live in most counties in the Western United States. The study was conducted by a seasonal wildland firefighter with a background in government budgeting and financing who is currently pursuing a Master’s in Public Policy. It can shed light on some of the reasons firefighters are leaving the federal agencies in large numbers and why Forest Service Chief Randy Moore said last week that only 50 percent of Forest Service firefighter positions are filled in some Western areas.

The analysis for GS03 through GS09 firefighters assumed that they work 680 hours of overtime each year, which in a six-month fire season works out to 26 overtime hours each week. It is not unusual for them to work more than 1,000 O/T hours in what has become a normal year, but it can be much less in a very slow fire year. Working extremely long hours away from home with few days off is another reason why firefighters are getting burned out, suicide rates are very high, and family life is challenging.

If the analysis only considered base salary with no overtime, it is likely that the results would have been far different.

A county was considered affordable if it fell within what was described as the common “50-30-20” personal budgeting strategy. This strategy says that 50 percent of someone’s income should be spent on necessities, 30 percent on non-essential purchases, and 20 percent on savings / retirement.

Below are the first five paragraphs of the three-page analysis. You can download the full Microsoft Word document here.

Introduction

Advocacy groups like the Grassroots Wildland Firefighters and National Federation of Federal Employees have spent the last several years highlighting the pay and retention issues facing the wildland firefighting workforce. These efforts were successful when a roughly 50 percent pay increase for federal wildland firefighters was included in the 2021 Bipartisan Infrastructure bill.

However, federal wildland firefighters have yet to see this money hit their paychecks. One reason for this delay is that the bill included language that the pay increase would only apply to “difficult to recruit / retain” locations. Although Congress intended this pay increase to apply to every wildland firefighter, there are reports that the U.S. Departments of Agriculture and Interior are looking for a “data-based” justification that may cut some wildland firefighters out of the intended raise. The U.S. Forest Service reported they are conducting “initial analysis comparing average federal and state wages and house purchasing power for firefighters (delineated to common wildland fire geographic areas) … to determine a ‘specified geographic area that is difficult to recruit or retain.’”

This analysis [conducted by the firefighter] compared the salaries of the 2022 GS03 to GS09 pay rates to three cost of living factors: the price of a 1 bedroom rental, monthly food costs, and the total monthly costs of owning a car. Since wildland firefighters rely heavily on overtime and hazard pay, this analysis assumed a firefighter works a six-month season with about 680 hours of overtime but 0 hours of hazard pay. Counties were determined to be affordable if less than 50 percent of salaries went to cost of living. Healthcare, childcare, utility, and retirement costs were not included in this analysis. See end of report for details on methodology.

Results

This analysis found that the average cost of living in western counties was $2304 a month. The most expensive county with significant federal public lands presence was Skamania County, just northeast of Portland, Oregon at $3137 a month (Gifford-Pinchot National Forest). Sierra County, south of Albuquerque, New Mexico (Gila National Forest) was the least expensive at $1742 a month.

The majority of Western counties were not determined to be affordable on a GS03-GS09 salary, since living expenses far exceeded 50 percent of wildland firefighter salaries. The following table shows what percent of income a federal wildland firefighter at different GS levels would expect to spend on basic needs across the Western U.S.

Critical fire weather for parts of the Southwest and Southern High Plains this weekend

Bill GabbertMay 7, 2022May 8, 2022UncategorizedRed Flag Warning, weather1 Comment

Red Flag Warnings issued for parts of seven states

Red Flag Warnings May 7, 2022 fire — Red Flag Warnings May 7, 2022. NWS.

Strong winds and dry vegetation predicted for the next several days are raising the wildfire danger to the elevated and critical levels across much of the southwest. Areas affected by Red Flag Warnings include parts of Nevada, California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Colorado and Kansas. (Southern Utah was somehow not included in the Red Flag Warnings.)

From the National Weather Service at 12:59 a.m. MDT May 7, 2022:

“The first in a series of active fire weather days is expected to unfold across the Southwest into the southern High Plains today. A broad upper trough will gradually amplify across the western CONUS, and surface low development will occur over the central High Plains this afternoon. Gradient flow and downward momentum transport support widespread 20+ mph sustained westerly surface winds, from the Nevada/Arizona border into the southern High Plains. 5-15 percent RH will coincide with this strong wind field for several hours during the afternoon, warranting the introduction of fire weather highlights. Critical highlights are in place where the aforementioned surface winds/RH will overlap with critically dry fuels (i.e. forecast ERCs [Energy Release Component] approaching or exceeding the 90th percentile)”

The Staging Area for off-topic comments, May 6, 2022

Bill GabbertMay 6, 2022May 14, 2022UncategorizedThe Staging Area24 Comments

Staging area at CAL FIRE Wildfire Preparedness Week event in Monterey, May 2022. CAL FIRE photo. (One of these is not like the others.)

This weekend we are continuing something we began last week. Borrowing an idea from The War Zone, this post can serve as the beginning of an open thread where our readers can talk about issues that we have, or have not, gotten into yet. This is literally an off-topic thread.

The usual rules about commenting apply. And in light of some recent articles, remember, no personal attacks.

So let’s enjoy a wide-ranging debate!

(Oh, and send us pics of staging areas. Date, location, and photographer’s name would be nice.)

Forest Service Deputy Chief lists her goals for Fire and Aviation Management

Bill GabbertMay 6, 2022May 6, 2022Uncategorizedhiring, Jaelith Hall-Rivera, pay, retention62 Comments

Deputy Chief Jaelith Hall-Rivera, State and Private Forestry, U.S. Forest Service. USFS photo.

In a May 5 post published on the U.S. Forest Service’s “Leadership Corner”, the person who oversees Fire and Aviation Management in the agency, Deputy Chief of State and Private Forestry Jaeligh Hall-Rivera, laid out a list of improvements she wants to see for Forest Service firefighters. Here is a summary:

“Ensure our firefighters are paid equally for the difficult job they do”
“Increase our firefighting capacity, this year and beyond”
“We must do something about the critical affordable housing shortages”
“We must also build sustainable career paths for wildland firefighters”
“A permanent pay increase, a job series that recognizes the unique and hazardous work firefighters do, upward career mobility, a safe, harassment-free work environment and a resilient work-life balance”
“Bringing more women into the wildland fire workforce and removing obstacles to help them thrive there”
“A sustainable, long-term solution for increased pay”
“I am personally committed to making these changes”
“I will be hosting a ‘FAM to boots’ session where I can share our most recent information and progress on these efforts”

Near the end of the essay Ms. Hall-Rivera wrote, “Please be assured, we are fully backing all these changes to continue improving our wildland fire system.”

She linked to an update that was posted February 2 about the efforts toward addressing firefighter pay and classification, initiatives that are required by an act of Congress passed in 2021. The Office of Personnel Management ordered that the work on a new Wildland Firefighter occupational series be completed “by May.” The February update stated that concerning pay, the “Goal is to have increased payments into paychecks by this summer, either by implementing this provision or using the awards payments model employed last year if we can’t fully implement this provision in FY 22.”

Before a Congressional committee on April 5, Ms. Hall-Rivera testified that a firefighter hiring event “went very well” and that they were “on pace” to meet the hiring targets. It turns out that the event had not started yet.

Before a different Committee on May 5 her boss, Forest Service Chief Randy Moore, testified that their goal is to hire 11,300 firefighters nationwide and the current level is at 10,200, or 90 percent. He said in some areas the agency has only reached 50 percent of their staffing goal.

In her May 5 post, Ms. Hall-Rivera addressed, to a degree, the conflicting testimonies:

The information on the status of our fire hiring events I used at that time left some wondering if we are up to speed here in Washington, DC. Let me update the record on the emerging picture from those hiring events. As of mid-April, we are at 90% of our planned 11,300 wildland firefighters (including those currently onboarding and offers pending).

Our Take

“A goal without a plan is just a wish.” — Antoine de Saint-Exupéry from his book "The Little Prince"

Few details were offered about how, when, and by whom this long list of initiatives would be accomplished, other than the efforts toward a new Occupational Series and firefighter pay. Using phrases like, “We must do something about…” can lead the reader to presume that very little thought has gone toward that particular goal. Although “goal” may be too lofty a description. “Wish” might be more appropriate.

Having been involved in many meetings and planning sessions where objectives were clearly articulated, I know that little gets done unless:

A person is appointed to lead the effort, and they are given the resources needed to get it done.
A completion date is specified, to which they are held.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Brian.

Firefighters on the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire preparing for a weekend wind event

Bill GabbertMay 6, 2022May 7, 2022WildfireCalf Canyon Fire, Hermits Peak Fire, New Mexico3 Comments

Winds gusting at more than 40 mph will test firelines on the east and northeast sides of the fire

Updated 5:32 p.m. MDT May 6, 2022

Map Calf Cyn -- Hermits Peak Fire 3-11 a.m. MDT May 6, 2022 — Map of the south side of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 10:15 p.m. May 5. The white line was the perimeter two days before. The brown dots represent heat detected by satellites during the 24-hour period ending at 3:11 a.m. MDT May 6, 2022.

Most of the growth of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire on Wednesday and Thursday was in three areas, on the north side west of Mora, on the southwest side near Bear Mountain, and the southeast side west of Las Vegas. Most of the additional acres near Las Vegas were a result of large burning operations conducted by firefighters to secure the fire edge. A mapping flight Thursday night determined that the fire had burned 168,009 acres, an increase of about 8,000 acres over the previous two days.

An area that is of concern to many residents in the area, the portion of the fire near Las Vegas, is “looking awesome”, said Operations Section Chief Todd Abel in a Friday morning briefing, implying there was not much active fire and the control lines are in place and holding.

Mr. Able said the weather and fire conditions have allowed firefighters to build direct fireline on the north side just west of the community of Cleveland, which is good news with strong winds in the forecast (see below for more weather information).

Map Calf Canyon -- Hermits Peak Fire 3-11 a.m. MDT May 6, 2022 — Map of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire. The red line was the perimeter at 10:15 p.m. May 5. The white line was the perimeter two days before. The red and brown dots represent heat detected by satellites as late as 3:11 a.m. MDT May 6, 2022.

The weather is going to be a challenge again this weekend due to what firefighters call a “wind event”. According to the forecast Saturday will bring strong winds gusting to 39 mph, becoming even stronger on Sunday and Monday gusting to 45 mph. The direction will be generally out of the southwest and west while the minimum relative humidity each day hovers around 10 percent. These conditions will test the firelines on the east and northeast sides of the blaze. Firefighters, of course, are aware of the prediction and have been prepping structures, constructing and improving firelines, and building contingency lines further out.

A multi-day critical fire weather event will impact mainly New Mexico through the next few days, and also much of SE Colorado, eastern Arizona and the Texas panhandle/west TX. A combination of strong winds, low humidity, & warm temperatures can contribute to extreme fire behavior pic.twitter.com/u2mhxpK5FU

— National Weather Service (@NWS) May 6, 2022

Over the last few days fire crews have been working north of the fire to be prepared if the fire makes a big run in that direction toward Chacon and Guadalupita South along the 519, 121, and 434 roads. Northeast and southeast of Mora they have used dozers to build firelines behind homes.

The Southwest Team #2 is bringing in a second team, a Type 2 team, Southwest Team #3. As explained by Operations Section Chief Todd Abel Friday morning, “They will integrate with our team. This means there’s still just one team, but we brought those people in to help us have a little bit more capacity so that if we have the potential to move further north that we have those folks available.”

Most of New Mexico is in extreme or exceptional drought. The vegetation, or fuels, are atypically dry due to the drought, exacerbated by strong winds and high temperatures. Extremely dry fuels is one of the factors that can contribute to the rapid spread of a fire, especially when combined with very low humidity, high temperatures, and very strong winds.

The spread of the Calf Canyon / Hermits Peak Fire has been primarily through Ponderosa pine with a significant amount of dead and downed fuels in the understory. As the fire progresses downslope to the east, the dominant fuels transition through pinyon/juniper, Gambel oak, and brush to short grass.

CL-415 scooping air tanker supports a firing operation on the Calf Canyon & Hermits Peak Fire, New Mexico. May, 2022. IMT photo.

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