Author: Bill

The snowpack in most of the western United States is average to much above average. The exceptions are southern Arizona and New Mexico. In the map below, the green, blue and purple colors are 90% to more than 180% of normal, while the orange and red colors are 69% to less than 25% of normal. (Click on the map to see an enlarged version.)

This is quite different from last year when most of the west was below normal.

But, as in an earlier post, I still believe the severity of the fire season is mostly determined by the weather in the fire season, and less so by the amount of precipitation during the winter.

Here is what the director of the Colorado State Forest Service said about the snowpack and the fire season. From the Durango Herald.

March 27, 2008
By Joe Hanel | Herald Denver Bureau

DENVER – Even though the snow is still deep in the mountains, above-average temperatures could set the stage for a bad fire season, Colorado’s top forester said Wednesday.

Temperatures in Southwest Colorado are predicted to be significantly above average, and drought is likely, especially in the southeast, said Jeff Jahnke, director of the Colorado State Forest Service, during a meeting of the Legislature’s two agriculture committees.

“All those things mean the potential for a significant fire season is there,” Jahnke said.

Rep. Kathleen Curry interrupted him.

“The potential is there even though we have a record snowpack?” asked Curry, D-Gunnison.

Yes, Jahnke said.

“Once the snow’s gone, it takes only a couple weeks of very dry, very hot weather to create the potential” for wildfires, Jahnke said.

However, Jahnke says he never makes predictions for how the fire season actually will play out. He was only saying the potential for big fires exists.

The deep snow means the fire season probably will start later than usual. And as long as the fall monsoon arrives on time, the fire season will be compressed, Jahnke said.

The Front Range has seen three fires in the last week that totaled 600 acres, he said.

Trees are still drier than normal after the drought years earlier this decade, Jahnke said.

Garry Briese was the Executive Director for the International Association of Fire Chiefs (IAFC) for 20 years until he resigned in February, 2007. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) announced this week that Briese has accepted a position as Regional Administrator for FEMA Region 8, which includes the states of Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Utah, and Wyoming.

The Democratic National Convention will be in Denver this summer, and no doubt he will be involved in some of the planning for that event.

After his position with the IAFC, on March 13, 2007 Briese began working for ICF International as a vice president for emergency management and homeland security. According to their web site:

“ICF International (Nasdaq: ICFI) partners with government and commercial clients to deliver consulting services and technology solutions in the energy, environment, transportation, social programs, defense, and homeland security markets.”

A blog called Disaster Zone, written by Eric Holdeman, a “principal” with ICF, said

“….Briese will be appointed to lead the (FEMA) region for the remainder of this administration.”

On September 27, 2007, Briese was appointed a Board member of the newly formed International Fire Service Research Center and Policy Institute which was established by the IAFC.

From the Western Governors Association today:

WASHINGTON, D.C. — Gov. Janet Napolitano told the U.S. House of Representatives’ Natural Resources Committee today that federal funding to fight catastrophic wildland fires must not come at the expense of fire prevention programs.

The governor, testifying on behalf of the Western Governors’ Association, said the proposed Federal Land Assistance, Management and Enhancement Act (FLAME Act) would help relieve the burden on the U.S. Forest Service’s already tight budget and the drain on wildfire prevention funding by creating a permanent fund for fighting the most catastrophic blazes.

“Large fires that used to burn hundreds of acres have been supplanted with mega-fires that burn tens of thousands of acres – sometimes in a single afternoon,” Napolitano said. “It is time to face reality and address the funding requirements to suppress these catastrophic fires.”

The governor said forests throughout the West are now in the midst of a “perfect storm” and there is “no time to waste” in addressing ever worsening catastrophic wildland fire activity.

“Decades of fuel accumulations and acres of beetle-killed timber, the rapid expansion of wildland/urban interface, and the overarching presence of drought and climate change have now combined to dramatically increase the numbers and size of mega-fires,” Napolitano said. Passage of the FLAME Act, she added, would “ensure that funding is not swept from vital restoration and prevention activities.”

The Governor noted that in the 1990s, wildfire suppression costs comprised 20 percent of the overall Forest Service budget. Today, with more catastrophic wildfires, suppression efforts consume more than half of the Forest Service budget. Recent fire seasons have cost upwards of one billion dollars, compared to $200 million a season in the ‘90s.

A copy of the Governor’s testimony is available on the WGA Web site at www.westgov.org.