News and opinion about wildland fire
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized6 Comments on Lightning, rain, and Red Flag Warnings in parts of California 
So far the thunderstorms that Californians were worried about that could ignite even more wildfires did not have much effect in the Bay Area overnight. But lightning strikes were detected in the Sierras along with rain — none, or less than 0.05 inch generally, but some locations received more, as is the nature of thunderstorms.
In the Bay Area there is still a chance of thunderstorms Monday morning, with decreasing chances in the afternoon.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized11 Comments on Over 26,000 personnel are battling wildfires August 23, 2020 | 6:48 p.m. MDT
It is not very often that there are more than 400 crews or 25,000 personnel assigned on fires at any one time, but those numbers have been exceeded with the rash of huge fires in California and Colorado.
The chart above compares the number of resources assigned to wildfires today to the total number mobilized in all of 2019, which was slower than usual. The acres burned in the lower 49 states in 2019 was 39 percent of the previous 10 year average. And the fires in 2019 were spread out over months — there was no extraordinary sudden need for massive mobilizations like is being required now in California and just before, Colorado. When there is an almost instant need for 15,000 or 20,000 firefighters, even the best-oiled mobilization system can struggle to keep up with the demand.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the lightning fires in California, including the most recent, click HERE.)
There are only 16 of the highest qualified National Type 1 Incident Management teams that run the largest fires and all are currently assigned. If more were available they would probably be deployed as well. Some fires are possibly being staffed by Type 2 teams when a Type 1 team was requested. But most likely, they will do fine. (Correction: there are 16 National Type 1 teams, but some of the 16 Type 1 teams currently on fires today are organized at the state level.)
In the first three or four days after the lightning started August 16 in California we were aware of multiple situations on emerging fires that were severely understaffed by ground and air resources. On some incidents personnel were asked to work back to back shifts because there was no relief, and requests for engines, hand crews, air tankers, and helicopters were often unfilled. Those conditions have improved now that the system is fully geared up and aid is arriving from out of state, but there are still requests for resources that are unable to be filled (UTF).
One thing that is striking is that no Area Command Teams have been dispatched. This situation is what they are made for. None were assigned in 2016, 2018, or 2019. All three AC teams received limited administrative assignments earlier this year to help put together plans for the COVID-19 pandemic, but in three of the last four years they were not used on fires.
In 2019 the National Multiagency Coordinating Group (NMAC) which manages the AC teams was concerned that if they did not receive assignments some individuals on the teams could lose currency and qualifications in 2020. That issue may have been ameliorated with the COVID mobilization. But a person might wonder how similar pandemic planning is to managing multiple wildfires.
Here is how the NMAC described the function of Area Command Teams in a letter encouraging their use last year:
ACTs provide strategic leadership to large theaters of operation while significantly reducing the workload for agency administrators and fire management staff. Common roles of ACTs typically include facilitating Incident Management Team (IMT) transitions, in-briefings, and closeouts. Additionally, ACTs coordinate with agency administrators, fire staffs, geographic areas, and MAC groups on complexity analysis, implementation of objectives and strategies, setting priorities for the allocation of critical resources, and facilitating the effective use of resources within the area.
August 23 through 24, partly due to the possibility of dry lightning
The chance of lightning with little or no rain Sunday and Monday combined with high temperatures and low humidities has led to predictions of elevated fire danger.
Red Flag Warnings are in effect for the northern half of California Sunday and Monday. The highest threat of dry lightning is Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
Thunderstorms with little or no rain is what started over 500 fires earlier last week. On Monday scattered or isolated dry thunderstorms could hit northern California and portions of Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and Colorado. The storms are expected to move farther north Monday.
Nick Nauslar, a Fire Meteorologist at the National Interagency Fire Center in Boise wrote about the forecast in a tweet at 11:30 p.m. Saturday, saying, “Hundreds of new fires are likely if this event pans out.”
The Hot Dry Windy Index (HDW) predicts higher than normal fire danger for the area of the Hennessey Fire in the Bay Area Sunday through Tuesday. On Sunday it is above the 90th percentile compared to the average for the date. The HDW is a fairly new tool developed for firefighters to predict weather conditions which can affect the spread of wildfires. It is relatively simple and only considers the atmospheric factors of heat, moisture, and wind. To be more precise, it is a multiplication of the maximum wind speed and maximum vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in the lowest 50 or so millibars in the atmosphere. The HDW only only uses weather information – fuels and topography are not considered by HDW at all. If the fuels are wet or have a high live or dead moisture content it will not be reflected in the data.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized1 Comment on Smoke forecast for 6 p.m. MDT August 23 
The map shows the forecast for the distribution of near-surface wildfire smoke at 6.m. MDT August 23, 2020.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized12 Comments on Smoke forecast for August 22, 2020 
The map shows the forecast for the distribution of near-surface wildfire smoke at 10 a.m. MDT August 22, 2020.
NASA, below, says there is going to be more of the same next week — lots of smoke. They apparently use a different unit of measurement than NOAA, above.
Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories Uncategorized31 Comments on Smoke forecast for Friday morning, August 21 August 20, 2020 | 9:11 p.m. MDT
The map above shows the forecast for the distribution of vertically integrated smoke from wildfires at 6 a.m. MDT Friday August 21, 2020. It looks bleak for the western United States.
We are searching for a good, reliable, easy to understand, accurate predictor for wildfire smoke, after trying some that did not meet that description. The forecast above is for vertically integrated smoke, more than 1,000 feet above the ground. It should be most visible at sunrise and sunset, turning it beautifully orange or red depending on the density.
If this map and the one below, for 6 a.m. MDT Friday, seem to be accurate for your location, or not, let us know in a comment.
The map below predicts for 6 a.m. MDT Friday, near-surface smoke, technically within eight meters of the ground, which would have more of an effect on humans and animals with breathing difficulties. If you’re in one of the denser smoke areas you might be able to smell it. The little lines on the map are “wind barbs”, indicating the speed and direction of the wind. In our view they needlessly clutter the map.
