The leading cause of wildfire ignitions on public lands in recent decades has been lightning, but new research shows humans may become the predominant cause of wildfires thanks to a recently enacted law allowing more recreational shooting.
Research published by Boise State University and the United States Department of Agriculture delved into fire reports for the Bureau of Land Management’s National Conservation Lands from 1992 to 2020 and found that 73% of fire ignitions were natural-caused, while human ignitions were only 27%. That is nearly the opposite of national trends, where human-caused ignitions account for 84% of all ignitions.
But one National Conservation Area, Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey in Idaho, was the opposite. This conservation area had 68% of its wildfire ignitions caused by humans. This public land also made up 25% of all ignitions on all of the Bureau’s National Conservation Lands between 1992 and 2020.
The difference between Morley Nelson Snake River Birds of Prey and other Bureau lands is that Morley Nelson has a year-round live-fire shooting area managed by the Idaho Army National Guard, meaning shooting directly contributes to the prevalence of fires on the public land.
All other public lands may soon go from having minimal human-caused ignitions to Morley Nelson’s numbers because of a recently enacted law. The Expanding Public Lands Outdoor Recreation Experiences Act, signed into law in January 2025, requires the Bureau of Land Management and Forest Service to establish at least one shooting range in their respective districts, expand motorized access, and increase campground usage.
Boise State University Environment Researcher Meg Dolman told Wildfire Today that she believes the act would increase the risk of human-caused wildfires due to the increased recreational shooting, human presence, and general activity on public lands. But she said the increased risk could be offset through preventative measures.
“Our research emphasizes that further efforts are needed to reduce wildfire risk from recreational shooting, through improving educational messaging, or encouraging recreational shooters to carry fire suppression tools and be prepared to extinguish any fires that may result from their activities,” Dolman said. “Our paper also highlights the need for safe fire-proof bullets for use in firearms and shooting ranges, especially in arid, fire-prone areas like the sagebrush steppe. Ultimately, our research encourages public land agencies to address human-caused ignitions more proactively and as a matter of urgency, especially those caused by recreational shooting.”
