Will the danger of wildfires prevent or postpone the July 3 Mount Rushmore fireworks?

The National Park Service will not disclose their criteria for cancellation due to fire danger

Thomas Jefferson on Mount Rushmore
Thomas Jefferson on Mount Rushmore.

There is a chance that the wildfire danger on July 3 could cause the fireworks planned over Mount Rushmore National Memorial to be cancelled or postponed. But the National Park Service has refused to disclose how they will make their decision.

President Trump and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem have been advocating for fireworks over the sculpture since 2018. Fireworks were shot at the Memorial 11 times between 1998 and 2009, but were cancelled due to wildfire danger in 2002, 2010, and 2011 and have not been used since.

The President has said, referring to the fireworks,”what can burn? It’s stone.” The sculpture of course is stone, but it is on steep, rugged terrain surrounded by very flammable ponderosa pine trees adjacent to the Black Hills National Forest.

I was the Fire Management Officer for Mount Rushmore and six other National Park Service (NPS) sites from 1998 to 2003 during the first 4 of the 11 years when fireworks were used 1998 through 2009. My job during the events was to organize for and suppress the wildfires using the scores of firefighters we deployed on site.

The Environmental Assessment completed by the National Park Service earlier this year that addressed resuming the fireworks stated that during the 11 years fireworks were used, 20 fires were caused by the fireworks. The Washington Post uncovered a 2017 document in which the National Park Service noted that “a minimum of 27” wildfires were started by the fireworks shows.

My records show that in one two-year period, 2000 to 2001, 17 fires were started  — 10 in 2000 and 7 in 2001. I don’t have fire occurrence records for the other nine years of fireworks were used.

In 2000 one of the fires burned through the night, grew to several acres, and required a 20-person crew and a helicopter to bring it under control the following day. There were two injuries; one person had to take time off from work to recover.

Several of the fires were more than 1,000 feet away from the launch site, far beyond the stone referenced by the President.

During the early years of the events I helped develop a Go/No-Go checklist of criteria that had to be acceptable to allow the show to occur. It included items such as obtaining a Spot Weather Forecast from the National Weather Service, wind speed, qualifications of firefighting personnel, and the Probability of Ignition (PI). The PI is the chance that a burning ember or firebrand will cause an ignition when it lands on receptive fuels. The beautiful fiery streaks you see after every explosion of fireworks contain hot embers, some of which after landing on the ground can start a fire.

I still have in my files a letter the NPS Midwest Regional Office sent to the staff at Mount Rushmore after the 17 fires in 2000 and the one that burned into the next day. It directed that in the future the maximum allowable PI be “less than 10 percent.”

I asked the NPS for a copy of the current Go/No-Go checklist and specifically the requirement this year for the PI. My questions were redirected to Erin Hilligoss-Volkmann, the Information Officer on the Incident Management Team that has been assigned to Mount Rushmore to help manage the event. She replied:

The Go/No Go checklist is not publicly available at this time due to security and safety concerns.

Fire condition criteria, such as: the fire preparedness level; burning index; fuels and moisture conditions; wind and weather conditions are part of the assessment. Detailed information about specific trigger points will not be released due to security and safety concerns.

Some current and former NPS employees have concerns about the fireworks.

“I am appalled that fireworks are scheduled for Mt Rushmore, especially considering the high danger of wildfire,” said Valerie Naylor, a retired NPS Superintendent who lives near the memorial. “We determined a decade ago that the wildfire risk, fireworks debris, environmental contamination, and damage to the sculpture were unacceptable. The memorial’s own planning documents reflect that. Now there is the added risk and complexity of operating in a dangerous pandemic.  Conducting an event like this is unnecessary and irresponsible and puts park staff and the public at high risk.”


My Opinion

Refusing to disclose the criteria that will determine if it is safe to explode fireworks over a ponderosa pine forest could lead a person to conclude that the National Park Service officials in South Dakota and Washington think they have something to hide. Is it actually a major security issue, or do they just want to conceal facts that could be politically embarrassing? The probability of ignition is not a political issue, it is science. A PI higher than 10 percent could put the public and the natural resources at risk.

The National Park Service needs to put on their big boy pants and be transparent about the fireworks.

The South Dakota Governor’s office should not be overlooked either. In the days leading up to the fireworks a wildfire broke out on state land six miles from Mount Rushmore. For years South Dakota state Incident Commanders and local public information personnel have been the primary distributors of information about developing fires being fought by state personnel. But they were gagged in this case, and the Governor’s office was the only official information source available, presumably because Governor Noem feared the occurrence of a fire near Mount Rushmore could affect the public perception of the wisdom of exploding fireworks over a forest 10 days later into the wildfire season. Even former Governor Bill Janklow, who was very, very hands on when fires were burning, did not attempt to control information about ongoing fires.

Mount Rushmore
Jill and Mike Ferguson at Mount Rushmore.

Above normal wildfire activity predicted to expand from the Great Basin into the Northwest and Northern Rockies

wildfire potential July 2020

Today the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October.

In July and August above normal wildfire potential is predicted to grow west and north across northern California, the Great Basin and the Central Rockies then expand into the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

  • An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
  • More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
  • NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
  • Drought Monitor;
  • Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

“Precipitation was below average in June across most of the country except across the Pacific Northwest where amounts were generally 150% of average or greater. Areas of concern emerged across California, the Great Basin, and Arizona where less than 5% of monthly precipitation was received. Temperatures were generally a few degrees above normal along the Pacific Coast and a few degrees below normal across the Interior West. In the East, temperatures were generally near normal in June.

“July is the entry point into the core of the Western Fire Season. As the season sequentially expands west and north across California, the Great Basin and the Central Rockies into the Northern Rockies and the Pacific Northwest, it will encounter areas of intensifying and expanding drought. This will lead to Above Normal significant large fire potential across large portions of the Great Basin and Northern California that will expand further north into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies in August and September.

“The elevated potential in southwestern areas will begin to diminish with the arrival of the monsoon in early July. Activity will linger into mid-September in northern areas until the seasonal transition begins and begins to bring the season to a close. In Alaska, significant large fire activity will become less frequent in late July as returning moisture events gradually reduce the fire potential.”

wildfire potential August 2020 wildfire potential September 2020 wildfire potential October 2020

Temperature and precipitation forecast for July
Temperature and precipitation forecast for July.
Three Month weather Outlook
Temperature and precipitation forecast for August, September, and October.
Drought Monitor issued June 25, 2020
Drought Monitor — June 23, 2020.
Keetch-Byram Drought Index, June 30, 2020
Keetch-Byram Drought Index, June 30, 2020.

Red Flag Warnings in 8 states, June 27

Red Flag Warnings June 27, 2020
Red Flag Warnings June 27, 2020. NWS.

(UPDATE at 2:30 p.m. MDT June 27, 2020: the National Weather Service may or may not have correctly identified the red areas on the map as Red Flag Warning areas for today, Saturday June 27. We are checking to confirm. The image is a screenshot from the NWS web site.)


(Originally published at 9:40 a.m. MDT June 27, 2020)

The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for June 27 in areas of Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, and Colorado. Most of the areas will experience strong winds and low humidities, resulting in enhanced wildfire danger.

(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)

EPA declines to regulate toxic chemical left at Mount Rushmore after 11 years of fireworks

Perchlorate, which is now in the water at the park after fireworks shows, has been linked to fetal and infant brain damage

Mount Rushmore
Mount Rushmore. Photo by Bill Gabbert.

The National Park Service is planning to conduct another fireworks show at Mount Rushmore National Memorial on July 3, 2020.

One of the reasons for prohibiting massive fireworks displays over the faces of the four presidents on Mount Rushmore National Memorial is that the previous 11 fireworks shows between 1998 and 2009 contaminated the water at the memorial. The fireworks explosions left perchlorate on the ground which has been linked to fetal and infant brain damage, and it worked its way into the water table. In 2016 a  USGS report showed that a maximum perchlorate concentration of 54 micrograms per liter was measured in stream samples at Mount Rushmore between 2011 and 2015. That was about 270 times higher than in samples collected from sites outside the memorial, which were 0.2 micrograms per liter.

In recent months the Environmental Protection Agency was considering  establishing a limit on perchlorate of 56 micrograms per liter, almost 4 times higher than the limit of 15 proposed by the administration in 2009, but it was never implemented. If adopted, the new limit would have been a policy statement by the administration that the extremely high perchlorate levels caused by the fireworks were acceptable, but just barely — by 2 micrograms per liter.

But the EPA announced June 18, 16 days before the scheduled July 3, 2020 fireworks show, that they will not regulate perchlorate, period. This makes it easier for the Governor of South Dakota and the President, who both pushed to resume the fireworks shows, to feel they have eliminated one of the barriers to continuing the explosions over the four faces.

The negative aspects of exploding fireworks over the sculpture, as learned from the 11 times it has been done in the past, include two other issues in addition to carcinogens in the water:

1. Wildfires
During those 11 events at least 20 documented wildfires were ignited by the fireworks in the middle of the wildfire season.

2. Garbage
The trash dropped by the exploding shells onto the Monument and the forest can never be completely picked up. Left on the ground are unexploded shells, wadding, plastic, ash, pieces of the devices, and paper; stuff that can never be totally removed in the very steep, rocky, rugged terrain.

Two firefighters were injured while suppressing one of the 10 fires started by Mount Rushmore fireworks in 2000

The fire burned several acres and required a 20-person crew and a helicopter to suppress

map location fires Mount Rushmore fireworks
Map showing wildfires that were caused by fireworks over Mount Rushmore in 2000 and 2001. NPS map created by Bill Gabbert October 9, 2002.

Since we are 10 days away from a large fireworks show over the sculpture on Mount Rushmore National Memorial, we should look back at fires caused by previous fireworks shows at the Memorial.

I was the Fire Management Officer for Mount Rushmore and six other National Park Service sites during the first 4 of the 11 years when fireworks were used 1998 through 2009. They were cancelled in 2002, 2010, and 2011 because of the danger of fire, and have not been used since.

In going through my files from 20 years ago, I found Incident Action Plans and other records for that time period. The fireworks show was a massive undertaking that drew thousands of spectators to the memorial. In 1999 and 2000 the Operations Section had seven functional groups with numerous employees assigned to each:

  • Law Enforcement
  • Emergency Medical Services
  • Traffic/Parking
  • Fire
  • Aviation
  • Security/Crowd
  • Fireworks

In 2000 as the Group Supervisor for Fire and Aviation I had a total of 64 firefighters assigned. During those early years we used the helicopter that was on a fire contract at Yellowstone National Park to sling load the fireworks up to the launch site at the top of the mountain.  Here is an excerpt from the Division Assignment List (ICS-204) for Aviation that year:

JUNE 29:  The Helitack crew will report to MORU [Mount Rushmore National Memorial] at 0800 on June 29 to sort, weigh, and package the materials to be sling-loaded to the top of Mount Rushmore. The materials to be moved will include: fireworks and launch tubes 35,000 lbs., sand 16,000 lbs.  The objective for this day is to have the material ready to begin movement by helicopter at 0600 on the following day, June 30.

JUNE 30:  Arrive at MORU at 0500 on JUNE 30 so that actual helicopter movement of the sling loads will begin at 0600 (sunrise is at 0514 MDT). 

JULY 4:  Arrive at MORU at 0500 on JULY 4.  On this day, all the material that must be ferried from the top of Mount Rushmore to the Helibase will have to be sorted and packaged and then flown down.  The sand will remain on the top; only the  _______lbs. of equipment needs to be flown down.  The Helibase manager will determine the exact schedule for July 4 the day before, but an objective will be to complete the helicopter operations BEFORE the Memorial is busy with visitors.

We also used the helicopter to ferry bladder bags with water to the top of the mountain to be used to suppress fires started by the fireworks at night. There was no water source at the sculpture and a round trip up and down the steep, rocky slope to refill bladder bags took time.

Mount Rushmore, satellite photo
Mount Rushmore, satellite photo.

Mount Rushmore National Memorial is not only rock, as we have heard from the President. The park is 1,400 acres, about 1,000 of which is Ponderosa Pine. Beyond that is the Black Hills National Forest.

Hot embers are, of course, created by the explosions of the fireworks. Most of them cool before landing on the ground. But not all. At Mount Rushmore  some of them fell on what firefighters call receptive fuels. A hot ember that lands on pine needles can start a forest fire.

During the fireworks show the scores of firefighters that were on hand had to remain out of what we called the Fallout Zone. After being launched hundreds of feet into the air a small percentage of the shells, which are larger than a softball, fail to explode and can cause serious injury if they fell on a firefighter. After the finale, the firefighters would move into their assigned areas to seek and suppress the fires. Picture the situation. It was dark, the terrain is very steep, and in many places rocky. Most of them carried five-gallon back pumps, water bladders, to put out the fires. The 45-pound back pumps were carried in addition to the regular firefighter gear which weighed more than 25 pounds. Among them, they had to cover an area about 3,000 feet in diameter in the dark, steep, rocky terrain. If more water was needed for the fires, it had to be carried up the steep slope.

Mount Rushmore looking down from the top
Mount Rushmore administrative site, looking down from the top of the sculpture. Photo by Bill Gabbert June, 2001.

The Environmental Assessment completed by the National Park Service earlier this year that addressed resuming the fireworks stated that during the 11 years fireworks were used, 20 fires were caused by the fireworks. My records show that in one two-year period, 2000 to 2001, 17 fires were started by the Mount Rushmore fireworks — 10 in 2000 and 7 in 2001. I don’t have fire occurrence records for the other nine years of fireworks shows. Several of the fires were more than 1,000 feet away from the launch site.  (See map at the top of the article, and note the 1,500′ radius [3,000′ diameter] circle centered on the launch site.)

A review of the 10 fires started by fireworks in 2000

On March 6, 2001 a meeting was convened to review the 10 fires started after the July 3, 2000 fireworks. In addition to myself, attendees included two representatives from Mount Rushmore National Memorial and two from the Park Service’s Regional office. Below is an excerpt from the memo written by the Acting Associate Regional Director, Park Operations and Education after the meeting:

“We reviewed the outcome of last year’s fireworks display where hundreds of burning embers hit the forest floor, resulting in seven reportable fires.  One of which grew to several acres requiring a 20-person hand crew and a type III helicopter with bucket to bring it under control.  One lost time injury and one injury that required first aid resulted from the suppression action.  We also reviewed the prescription criteria that was part of the go-no-go decision process for approving the fireworks last year.  We recommended, last year, that the fireworks would not be ignited if the probability of ignition was greater than 30 percent.  With seven reportable fires last year, the probability of ignition will need to be lowered under that prescription.

“We also reviewed Director’s Order (DO) 53 where it states, “No display will be conducted where the discharge, failure to fire, faulty firing, or fallout of any fireworks or other objects would endanger persons, buildings, structures, forest, or brush.”

“Our approval of the fireworks display at Mount Rushmore will require the following:

  1. “A waiver of the National Park Service policy found in DO-53 on displaying fireworks over a “forest or brush” area.
  2. A newly completed and approved fire management plan (FMP) and accompanying National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) compliance.
  3. An annual fireworks operational plan that outlines the mitigation actions in the event of a wildland fire.

“Within the FMP, you can outline the annual fireworks project, describe the prescription criteria that would be part of the go-no-go checklist (probability of ignition less than 10 percent, reduction of the dead and down fuel loading, opening of the canopy closure within the fallout zone, type 1 hot shot crew for night suppression operations within the fallout zone, and safe zones identified and described to both the public and employees).  This project should be identified in the FMP and then hazard fuel dollars from FIREPRO could be applied for and be used to help do the fuel mitigation.” (emphasis added)

The next year, 2001, seven fires were caused by the fireworks.

Prescribed fire at Mount Rushmore

Mount Rushmore prescribed fire April 30 2020
Mount Rushmore prescribed fire April 29, 2020. Photo by Matt Danilchick.

On April 29, 2020 the National Park Service conducted the first ever broadcast prescribed fire at Mount Rushmore. The objective, according to what one of the firefighters told photographer Paul Horsted, was to burn 260 acres in preparation for exploding fireworks over the sculpture on July 3.

The exact cost for the prescribed fire has not been tabulated, but Maureen McGee-Ballinger, the Memorial’s Chief of Interpretation and Education, told us the estimated expenditure was $30,000. It was conducted by a total of 54 personnel, including 24 firefighters from the National Park Service, 8 from the State of South Dakota, 6 from the State of North Dakota, 8 from the US Fish and Wildlife Service, 4 from the Department of Defense and 2 local volunteer fire department engines.

A prescribed fire will reduce the amount of fuel available for a wildfire started by fireworks or any other ignition source, but it can’t totally prevent an ignition. However, any resulting fire would burn with less intensity and resistance to control.

Some of the negative aspects of exploding fireworks over the sculpture, as learned from the 11 times it has been done in the past, include two other issues in addition to fires:

1. Carcinogens in the water
In 2016 the U.S. Geological Survey discovered that the ground and surface waters at Mount Rushmore are contaminated with perchlorate, a carcinogen which is a component of rocket fuels, fireworks, and explosives. They determined that the chemical came from the fireworks over the 12-year period during which they were used.

2. Garbage
The trash dropped by the exploding shells onto the Monument and the forest can never be completely picked up. Left on the ground are unexploded shells, wadding, plastic, ash, pieces of the devices, and paper; stuff that can never be totally removed in the very steep, rocky, rugged terrain.

Mount Rushmore Fireworks garbage
Several months after the fireworks in 2007 Paul Horsted photographed garbage near the Mount Rushmore sculpture that was created by the exploding shells.

Kern County cuts their Rio Bravo Hotshot Crew

It was the only county-funded hotshot crew in the U.S.

Rio Bravo Hotshots cut defunded
Rio Bravo Hotshots in 2018. Kern County Fire Department photo.

The southern California-based Rio Bravo Type 1 Hotshot crew has been defunded. The Kern County Board of Supervisors announced in a press release earlier this month, “Rio Bravo Crew 7 will be unstaffed for 2020 due to budget constraints.” This was the only county-funded hotshot crew in the United States. All others are part of state or federal organizations.

Abby Bolt wrote about cutting the crew in her “Up in Flames” blog June 18. Here is an excerpt:

…Over the past few months rumors have been floating around in local firehouses with an assumption that Rio Bravo’s 2020 fate would be inevitable. The combination of low interest and motivation for KCFD firefighters to adapt to seasonal hotshot crew schedule and culture, low moral, and budget cuts created the perfect storm. Another important note is not just any Kern County Firefighter can supervise a Hotshot crew. There are a number of wildland qualifications that must be met by crew leadership which are not easy to attain.

The U.S. Forest Service maintains a list of Hotshot crews on their website.

Rio Bravo Hotshots cut defunded