Wind forecast for noon CDT, Sept. 28, 2022. Windy.com
It turns out that one of the reasons for the elevated fire dangers and the strong north winds in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama is the counter-clockwise rotation around Hurricane Ian. This wind forecast for noon CDT on Wednesday shows the northerly flow in those states which is similar to the winds on Tuesday, but the speeds will be higher Wednesday.
The colors on the map represent wind speed, not precipitation. The legend for wind speed is at bottom-right (in knots).
Updated at 4 p.m. CDT Sept, 27, 2022
Red Flag Warnings, 4 p.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022
The National Weather Service has modified this fire weather forecast repeatedly on Tuesday afternoon for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity, possibly due to complications caused by Hurricane Ian which is headed to the west side of Florida near Tampa.
The map above was current Tuesday at 4 p.m. CDT. There will be some Red Flag Warnings in the area on Wednesday, but we’ll wait until Wednesday morning to post the map, after the forecast settles a bit.
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches, 11:10 a.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022.
Low humidity and strong wind predicted on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity brings elevated fire danger to areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon for southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.
Fire weather Sept. 27, 2022 for central MS, northeast LA, and southwest AR.
Weather forecasters expect the relative humidity will be in the low 20s across much of the area or even the high teens near the Gulf Coast. Afternoon wind gusts will be greater than 20 mph.
The forecast for Wednesday is for the critical fire weather to expand further into Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and Georgia.
Ben Elkind was seriously injured during a training parachute jump on May 15. During his ninth year as a smokejumper (with six years before that on a hotshot crew) he sustained a dislocated hip and pelvic fracture during a hard landing. During surgery at the hospital they found six fractures and placed three plates and 10 screws to repair the damage.
While Ben is unable to fight fires for an extended length of time, he will not be able to supplement his base income with the usual 1,000 hours of overtime each year which in the past he has depended on to support his wife and two small children.
And then during a full body CT scan a nodule was discovered on his thyroid — meaning, cancer. Ben told Wildfire Today the cancer was caught early and is very treatable.
We have written about Ben previously, but that was before we were aware of the cancer. And the other reason we’re bringing it up now is that yesterday NBC News published a nearly four-minute video story about Ben and other similar examples of injured wildland firefighters.
For more than the last year Ben has been very involved working to improve the working conditions of federal wildland firefighters, being proactive in educating the public and other firefighters about what they can do to improve the pay, classification, health, well-being, and processing of worker’s compensation claims (see photo below). In 2021 he wrote an article that was published in The Oregonian and Wildfire Today. And now he finds himself as one of the examples of what can happen on the job to a wildland firefighter that can seriously affect them and their family.
NFFE meets with Secretary of Labor in Washington, DC, March 16, 2022. L to R: Max Alonzo (NFFE), Bob Beckley (NFFE), Hannah Coolidge (USFS Hotshot), Marty Walsh (Sec. Of Labor), Dane Ostler (USFS – Prevention), Ben Elkind (USFS – Smokejumper), Randy Erwin (NFFE – President), and Jeff Friday (NFFE).
There has been some progress during the last year in establishing a list of presumptive diseases for firefighters.
Pending legislation would create the presumption that firefighters who become disabled by certain serious diseases, contracted them on the job, including heart disease, lung disease, certain cancers, and other infectious diseases. The bipartisan Federal Firefighters Fairness Act, H.R. 2499, passed the House in May and is now in the Senate.
In April the Office of Workers’ Compensation Programs (OWCP), in FECA Bulletin No. 22-07, established a list of cancers and medical conditions for which the firefighter does not have to submit proof that their disease was caused by an on the job injury.
Consider telling your Senators and Representative to pass the Tim Hart Wildland Firefighter Classification and Pay Parity Act, H.R.5631. The name of the bill honors smokejumper Tim Hart who died after being injured on a fire in New Mexico in 2021. (More about the bill.) And ask your Senators to pass the Federal Firefighters Fairness Act, H.R. 2499.
You may want to make a donation to the gofundme account set up by the Redmond Smokejumper Welfare Organization to assist Ben and his family.
Staging area at the Valley Fire near Pine Valley, CA, Aug. 22, 2022. CAL FIRE photo.
This weekend we are continuing an occasional weekend feature we started a few months ago. This post can serve as the beginning of an open thread where our readers can talk about issues that we have, or have not, gotten into yet. This is literally an off-topic thread. You have the floor.
The usual rules about commenting apply. And remember, no personal attacks or politics, please.
It also addresses in a very limited way the rental rates of government housing
Firefighter bucks burning log. Northwest Area Coordination Center photo. 2022.
A bill to be introduced in the Senate would ensure that a federal wildland firefighter would not forfeit previously made contributions or eligibility for firefighter retirement if they have a voluntary break in service of less than 9 months. Some employees have been surprised after returning to their firefighter job after having to take care of children or other family members, to learn that the break in firefighter retirement coverage reset the clock. Their previous work as a firefighter no longer counted toward firefighter retirement and their 20-year period of covered work began again. It could be argued, why is there any limit on the break in service. Or, why couldn’t it be 5 years or 10 years?
Another provision will place a cap on a Federal wildland firefighter’s rent when they are required to occupy government housing. The maximum limit would be 40 percent of the person’s pre-tax salary. This is thought to affect a limited number of federal wildland firefighters, primarily in the National Park Service. The legislation says this change would be implemented “notwithstanding OMB Circular No. A-45R” which states, “rents and other charges may not be set so as to provide a housing subsidy, serve as an inducement in the recruitment or retention of employees, or encourage occupancy of existing Government housing.”
The rent for federal government housing is required by the OMB Circular to be “based upon an impartial study of comparable private rental housing.”
Nationally, rents rose a record 11.3 percent last year, according to real estate research firm CoStar Group.
The bill was announced Wednesday by U.S. Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), Ranking Member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and Chair of the committee Joe Manchin (D-WV). It is titled “Promoting Effective Forest Management Act of 2022.”
The Grassroots Wildland Firefighters played a part in getting these provisions into the proposed legislation. Kelly Martin, President, said she looks at them as placeholders or starting points.
There will be opportunities as it is being considered to modify the language, perhaps for example, to eliminate the break in service restriction for firefighter retirement coverage, and determine a method for setting housing rental rates that GS-3 firefighters making about $2,200 a month can afford, whether or not the employee is required to stay in government housing.
With difficulties in recruiting and retaining federal wildland firefighters, and hundreds of vacant positions, it may be time to modify the OMB Circular to allow rental rates to “serve as an inducement in the recruitment or retention of employees.”
The bill has not been introduced in the Senate yet and could be subjected to changes and amendments if it makes it that far through the process. It has several provisions that could garner votes from Republicans, such as quadrupling mechanical thinning targets, streamlining environmental reviews, and increasing grazing. Half a dozen organizations associated with logging submitted statements supporting the bill.
Other provisions in the legislation:
The FS shall develop a program that provides incentives for employees to grow in place without relocating.
The FS will be required to reduce the number of relocations of line officers, in order to increase the period of time that they work at a duty station.
The FS and the BLM are required to double their mechanical thinning targets by 2025 and quadruple them by 2027.
It allows counties and local governments to intervene in lawsuits intended to stop wildfire prevention projects on nearby National Forests.
It places a $100,000 cap on employee relocation expenses.
Job applicants will be solicited in a manner that does not limit eligibility to current Forest Service employees.
The FS shall work with States to develop a universal, tiered program to train people to enter the logging workforce, and to examine ways to facilitate apprenticeship training opportunities.
Within three years of passage of the legislation, every FS and BLM unit must use at least one of six streamlining methods for environmental review on a forest management project.
The Forest Service and the BLM are directed to develop a strategy to increase the use of grazing as a wildfire mitigation tool.
Measurements from satellites indicate rapidly growing exposure to heavy smoke plumes across much of the U.S. Map shows the estimated annual increase between 2011 and 2020 in the number of smoke plumes that NOAA analysts designate as “heavy,” their densest plume classification. Dots indicate EPA ground-based pollution monitors. Credit: Burke et al.
By Josie Garthwaite, Stanford University
When drifting wildfire smoke brings hazardous air pollution to cities and towns across the country, public health officials urge residents to stay indoors, close windows, and use air filters. New research from Stanford University shows Americans are getting the message, yet still rarely succeed at keeping smoke from entering their homes.
Researchers led by Marshall Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science, analyzed data from consumer-grade air pollution sensors in 1,520 single-family homes across the U.S., as well as nearby outdoor air pollution monitors, cell phones, social media posts, and Google searches in English and Spanish between 2016 and 2020.
They found internet searches for air quality information increased on heavy smoke days, regardless of income, while searches for air filters, smoke masks, and other protective measures recommended by health officials rose only in wealthy neighborhoods. Residents of wealthier neighborhoods are also more likely to shelter at home when wildfire smoke pollutes outside air. “People seem to know they’re being exposed. We see a lot of behaviors change even at pretty low levels of smoke exposure, although those responses differ by socioeconomic status,” said Burke.
The results, published July 7 in Nature Human Behaviour, show that better education and information about health hazards from wildfire smoke are not enough to protect people from the health harms of wildfire smoke exposure. The findings also bolster evidence for nascent efforts to take a more proactive and systematic approach to mitigating public health risks from wildfire smoke, predicted to be one of the most widely felt health impacts of climate change nationwide.
While most current government policies rely on a do-it-yourself approach to avoiding unhealthy air from wildfires, this tactic will have “modest and unequal benefits,” the authors write. Short-term solutions include establishing clean air shelters and providing public subsidies for lower-income households to filter indoor air. “If people can’t maintain good air quality in their homes, they need a place to go where they can breathe clean air,” said Burke, who is also deputy director of Stanford’s Center on Food Security and the Environment. “That’s a great place to start.”
Leaky homes
Overall, the authors found indoor concentrations of the deadliest type of particle pollution, known as PM 2.5, often remain three to four times higher than public health guidelines, and can vary by a factor of 20 between neighboring households during heavy smoke days. “Households that look exactly the same in terms of income, house price, and house size had enormously different indoor air for a given level of outdoor air quality,” said study co-author Sam Heft-Neal, a researcher at the Center on Food Security and the Environment. According to the authors, the most likely culprits are open doors and windows, leaky buildings, and a lack of filtration.
As the number of heavy smoke days in California and the West continue to climb, lawmakers from several western states have introduced bills that would allow the president to declare a “smoke emergency,” provide federal funding to establish clean air shelters and relocate vulnerable populations, and create a grant program for local community planning related to wildfire smoke. None have been enacted.
“To be able to intervene appropriately, we have to be able to measure things, including what people are exposed to in their home and how they’re behaving,” said Burke. That ability is rapidly expanding, thanks to the growing number of people buying relatively low-cost but reliable air quality monitors from PurpleAir, a private company, and agreeing to have the data put on a public website—although households who own the monitors, for now, are overwhelmingly Californian and higher income. “Our ability to precisely measure infiltration at the household level and then relate that to things we observe about the house or the community is new,” Burke said.
In the absence of systematic support at the federal level, a patchwork of local and state mitigation efforts has emerged. Oregon’s environmental agency, for example, has provided a grant for the city of Ashland to set up a free air purifier distribution program for vulnerable residents. In California, where more than half the population experienced a month of wildfire smoke levels in the range of unhealthy to hazardous during the 2020 fire season, the state has launched a $5 million pilot program providing grants for smoke shelters.
Still, most places are no better prepared for unhealthy air this year than they were in 2020 and, as large fires become more frequent, it will become increasingly onerous for people to protect themselves. “We’ve dug ourselves a huge hole in terms of the amount of accumulated dry fuel in our forests. It’s going to require unprecedented levels of investment over a sustained period to reduce fire risk and lower smoke exposures for everyone,” Heft-Neal said. “In the meantime, we have to be prepared for the large wildfires that, unfortunately, we’re going to get. And we have to be ready to deal with the downwind exposures that those wildfires generate.”
The Mark Twain National Forest needs your help in identifying individuals seen in photos and videos stealing from the Marcoot Lookout Tower near Bunker, Missouri in 2021. They are suspected of removing the Osborne Fire Finder, an essential device which assists lookouts in pinpointing the exact location of smoke cross referenced with a map. They are historical items and are very difficult to replace.
Example of an Osbourne Fire Finder.
If you have any information that can help catch these thieves, please call the Mark Twain National Forest’s Patrol Captain Casey Hutsell at 573-341-7463.
Mark Twain NF suspects, 2021.Mark Twain NF suspect, 2021.
Several videos of the thieves are posted on the Forest’s Facebook page in the comment section of the post about this incident.
After photos were posted about a burglary at a lookout tower in Oregon in August, one of the suspects was arrested and later indicted by a Grand Jury. In that case the thieves stole batteries, electronic equipment, and solar panels used to power the tower’s fire detection camera.
