Dixie Fire map, NE Side. The white line was the perimeter at 2:35 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. Yellow areas had intense fire. Red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:17 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. The green line was the perimeter two days before.
An inversion remained over the Dixie Fire southwest of Susanville, California Wednesday and Wednesday night trapping the smoke and reducing visibility, but the blaze was still moderately active. Late in the afternoon fire in the Wilcox Valley 12 miles northeast of Greenville intensified, sending up a smoke column that broke through the inversion. The smoke above the inversion was then transported off to the northwest by upper level winds. Warm temperatures Wednesday night and minimal humidity recovery allowed the the fire to continue to spread.
A mapping flight late Wednesday night found that the fire had grown to 510,000 acres.
(To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.)
In an update, the Incident Management Team said in areas where the fire has been stopped the large fuels on the ground, such as logs and stumps, will require a significant amount of resources to mop up due to the volume of fuels and the steep, rugged terrain.
Dixie Fire map, NW Side. The white line was the perimeter at 2:35 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. Yellow areas had intense fire. Red dots represent heat detected by a satellite at 2:17 a.m. PDT Aug. 12, 2021. The green line was the perimeter two days before.
Aircraft initially working the fire Thursday morning will include 1 Very Large Air Tanker (DC-10), 2 Large Air Tankers, 2 Super Scoopers, 1 Lead Plane, 1 Air Attack aircraft, and approximately 20 helicopters.
Wednesday evening there were 6,133 personnel assigned to the incident, with 511 fire engines, 175 water tenders, 20 helicopters, 81 hand crews, and 198 dozers. The estimated suppression costs to date are $217 million. Nationwide there are over 25,000 personnel committed to wildland fires.
There is a chance Thursday for thunderstorms bringing very little rain with temperatures in the mid 90s to lower 100s and relative humidity in the lower teens. Winds will generally be out of the southwest in the afternoon with the exception of outflows generated by thunderstorms. The rest of the week should bring rising temperatures and dry conditions. Sustained southwest winds are expected to push the fire to the north and northeast.
Satellite photo of fires in OR, WA and CA at 6:46 p.m. PDT Aug 11, 2021. The red areas indicate heat at fires detected by the satellite.
He is being investigated for possible links to five fires
Exhibit 2 in the Gary Maynard Detention Memo, showing the Ranch Fire shortly after it was discovered. Gary Maynard is charged with starting the fire. Photo courtesy of US Attorney’s office.
A 47-year old man has been arrested for starting a vegetation fire not far from where the 501,000-acre Dixie Fire is burning in Northern California.
Gary Stephen Maynard was charged with starting the Ranch Fire on August 7 and is suspected of starting the Moon and Conard Fires in the same area on August 5 and 7, respectively. He may be linked to two other blazes in Northern California.
Lauren Horwood, Public Information Officer for the U.S. Attorney’s Office, told Wildfire Today that at a detention hearing today in Sacramento the judge decided to hold him without bond. He is scheduled for preliminary examination on August 24.
Mr. Maynard is a former instructor at universities in California including Santa Clara and Sonoma State.
From CNN:
Maynard was a part-time lecturer at Sonoma State University in its Department of Criminology and Criminal Justice during the fall of 2020, a university spokesperson told CNN. He taught two seminars on the topics of criminal justice and deviant behavior, according to school officials. Maynard was filling in for a faculty member who was on leave and was not reappointed for Spring 2021, the school spokesperson said.
Sonoma State University welcomed him as a new lecturer on August 31, 2020. Their description:
Dr. Gary Maynard graduated from Bowling Green State University, University of Alaska Fairbanks and Stony Brook University. He has three master’s degree (political science, theater arts, and sociology) and a Ph.D. in sociology. His teaching and research focus on the following topics: sociology of technology/social media, social psychology, sociology of health, deviance and crime, sociology of the mass media, youth and adolescence, global sociology, environmental sociology, the sociology of sports, the sociology of drug abuse and alcoholism and quantitative research methods.
Investigations are still ongoing. On August 8 a federal agent applied for a warrant to search Mr. Maynard’s vehicle, including the contents of his cell phone and a computer which were clearly visible in his vehicle.
He has not been charged with starting the Dixie Fire, but is being investigated for his responsibility in starting five others. They were all suppressed before growing large, in part because for some of them his vehicle was being tracked and arson investigators had access to the approximate location of his cell phone every 15 seconds. In a couple of cases US Forest Service Agents reported them immediately, were the first on scene, and did what they could to knock down the blazes until firefighters arrived.
Here is a breakdown of the five fires to which he is allegedly linked:
Cascade Fire, July 20, 2021
Mr. Maynard first came into the picture on July 20, 2021 when US Forest fire investigator Brian Murphy was investigating the Cascade Fire in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest on the western slope of Mt. Shasta about 110 air miles northwest of the Dixie Fire. A black Kia Soul vehicle registered to Mr. Maynard was stuck in a rut on an unmaintained Forest Service road about 200 yards from the fire. He refused to identify himself to Investigator Murphy but it was later determined that it was Gary Stephen Maynard, a former university professor. Mr. Maynard asked the Special Agent to pull his vehicle out of the rut, but the Special Agent replied that he was not allowed to tow vehicles. Mr. Maynard’s uncooperative and agitated behavior led Investigator Murphy to conclude it was safest to distance himself from this man, and left the scene, but prior to departing he took a photograph of the stuck vehicle.
Another person in the area told investigators they had seen Mr. Maynard walk toward the general area where the Cascade Fire later started. In addition, two other small fires were discovered, one on each side of the road near where Mr. Maynard’s vehicle had been parked. Both contained what appeared to be burned newspaper and had self-extinguished. Tire tracks left at the scene were examined, measured, and photographed.
Everitt Fire, July 21, 2021
The next day, July 21, 2021, similar tire tracks left by a vehicle with the same wheel base were found at the Everitt Fire, another arson fire on the western slopes of Mt. Shasta in the Shasta-Trinity National Forest.
Investigator Murphy applied for and received search warrants for the near-real-time location of Mr. Maynard’s cell phone and to attach a tracking device to his vehicle. After locating him using the cell phone data, two police officers pulled him over. While they were talking with him, Investigator Murphy installed a magnetic vehicle tracking device under the rear portion of the vehicle.
Exhibit 1 in the Gary Maynard Detention Memo. Map showing the locations of the Moon, Conard, and Ranch Fires. Courtesy of US Attorney’s office. The map was originally created to show the perimeter of the Dixie Fire.
Moon Fire, August 5, 2021
The scenario described in the criminal complaint about another fire, the Moon Fire, was very different. Data from the tracking device showed that Mr. Maynard’s vehicle, while driving north on Mooney Road in the Lassen National Forest, passed the location where the Moon Fire was discovered soon after. The data showed the vehicle drove by the location at 55 mph, but did not stop — until traveling another 3/4 mile where it pulled over on the shoulder of the road for one minute and eight seconds at the end of a long straightaway. The investigator wrote in the complaint that the parking spot offered a view of the Moon Fire. The blaze started on the driver’s side of the road, which, Investigator Murphy said, “offered the opportunity to deliver an aerial ignition device from the driver’s side window.”
A nearby USFS Officer helped contain the fire, followed by a responding engine crew, limiting it to about five feet wide. Investigators narrowed the cause down to arson.
Ranch Fire, August 7, 2021
On August 7 the Ranch Fire (see photo above) started northwest of Susanville, California off Highway 44 in a very remote area where tracking showed Mr. Maynard’s vehicle had been parked for 28 hours. Investigators following and tracking Mr. Maynard called the location “Campsite 2.” This was northeast of the huge very active Dixie Fire and in an area closed to the public because of the fire. The new fire was discovered and reported by Investigator Murphy as he hiked to the site to look for tire track impressions. He wrote in the complaint:
As I neared Campsite 2, I observed a large column of grey and black smoke rising from the forest. I ran back to my vehicle and proceeded to notify the local USFS Fire Dispatch Center. I then returned to the fire, later named the Ranch Fire, and observed the wildfire burning along the forest floor, trees, and brush—an area that consisted of approximately ½ to 1 acre in size. I then observed the tire track impressions that had been left behind by the SUBJECT VEHICLE, which were located at the edge of this new wildland fire.
A CAL FIRE investigator determined the fire to be arson.
Conard Fire, August 7, 2021
Six minutes after he left the location of the Ranch Fire, Mr. Murphy’s tracking data showed that he stopped at another location for about 30 minutes. After he departed, an agent found what was later named the Conard Fire which burned about an acre very close to where the vehicle had been parked. Like the other fires, no obvious ignition device or technique was found, but all possible causes were eliminated except for arson.
Similar to many arsonists, after Mr. Maynard left the Conard Fire, he returned a few hours later, possibly to see the effects of his fire-setting. With the reports of multiple suspicious fires, state and local law enforcement officers responded to the area. A California Highway Patrol officer pulled him over for his unauthorized presence in the closure. After detecting the possible odor of marijuana, the officer used that as probable cause to search for open containers of marijuana; one was found and the officer issued a citation.
When questioned by US Forest Service agents, Mr. Maynard gave them incorrect information about his travels in the previous 24 hours that was not consistent with the tracking data. He denied setting any fires and, at one point, stated that if the agents were going to accuse him of starting fires that he would defend himself in court. Lassen County Sheriff Deputy Steven Lawton booked him in to the Lassen County Jail for violating California Penal Code 409.5, unauthorized entry into a closed emergency area. Later that evening, Deputy Lawton advised Mr. Maynard that a felony charge of arson (California Penal Code 451) was being added. At that point, Deputy Lawton said that Mr. Maynard became enraged and began kicking the jail cell door and screamed, “I’m going to kill you, f****** pig! I told those f****** I didn’t start any of those fires!”
U.S. Forest Service Agents conducted an extensive resources-intensive effort to track Mr. Maynard’s vehicle and were waiting in shifts nearby to track his movements and discover any fires he set. These were extraordinary precautions that were necessary because of the difficulty of finding someone in the forest without a tracker and the speed with which a fire can grow during a period of drought with hot, dry, and windy weather.
Considerations for holding Mr. Maynard in jail
The detention memo obtained by Wildfire Today laid out several reasons why Mr. Maynard should not be released while awaiting trial. Below are quotes, excerpts from the Detention Memo filed August 10, 2021:
“First, arson is a dangerous crime and it is a crime for which it is particularly difficult to fashion conditions of release. Here, the nature and circumstances of Maynard’s arson offense show that he is particularly dangerous, even among arsonists. Over the course of the last several weeks, Maynard has set a series of fires in the vicinity of the Lassen National Forest and Shasta-Trinity National Forest. As the Court is likely aware, California is in the middle of a drought and a particularly early and difficult fire season consistent with the effects of climate change. The Wildland Arsonist: One of the Most Dangerous Criminals, WILDFIRE TODAY, Feb. 23, 2021, available online at https://wildfiretoday.com/2021/02/23/the-wildland-arsonist-one-of-the-most-dangerous-criminals (last viewed Aug. 10, 2021).
“Words cannot describe this additional threat to firefighters and other emergency personnel as effectively as the map attached as Exhibit 1 to this memorandum [above]. The map shows the boundaries of the Dixie fire where firefighters are laboring to protect the public at significant personal risk. The map also shows where Maynard set fires on August 5th and 7th behind those fire lines. Maynard’s fires were placed in the perfect position to increase the risk of firefighters being trapped between fires. But for the dedication and efforts of U.S. Forest Service investigators working around the clock to track Maynard, those fires would not have been discovered in their infancy. With Maynard’s growing fires at their backs, firefighters would have been placed at much greater risk.
“Agents had installed a tracker on his vehicle. Where Maynard went, fires started. Not just once, but over and over again. As a result, the evidence is strong and Maynard will be convicted if he chooses to go to trial.
“Maynard’s ties to the community also appear weak. He was living out of his car alone and traveling across large sections of Northern California. Maynard appears to have had difficulty holding a teaching job at the various universities at which he has taught. Therefore, this factor favors detention.
“Finally, Maynard poses a particular danger to the community. He is a serial arsonist, during a dangerous time for state and the public from wildfires. Wildfires can and do kill Californians and destroy their homes. Virtually entire towns have been destroyed already this year as well as in prior fire seasons. Moreover, the manner in which Maynard chooses to set his fires is particularly dangerous to first responders who are already stretched thin fighting large fires.”
“Gentlemen, the officer who doesn’t know his communications and supply as well as his tactics is totally useless.”
– Gen. George S. Patton, USA.
A technician sets up a portable radio repeater on the Sprague Fire in Glacier National Park in Montana, September 16, 2017. NIFC photo.
Warnings sent out this week by the National Multi-Agency Coordinating Group at the National Interagency Fire Center advised wildland firefighters across the Western United States that logistics problems are developing in several areas, including supplying firefighters with communications, food, and water.
Communications
The National MAC Group said the National Interagency Incident Communication Division is now critically low on a majority of radio communications equipment. The only equipment specifically mentioned was portable radio repeaters, which retransmit radio conversations among fire personnel to enable wider coverage, rather than limiting it to just line-of-sight. Communications on any emergency incident is critical, but especially on wildland fires where terrain and distance limit the use of radios. Repeaters, enough of them in the right locations, can aid situational awareness, command, and control.
Radios for firefighters at the Rough Fire – Sequoia Kings Canyon NP in California 9-26-2015. NIFC photo.
A variety of factors have contributed to the logistics challenges for providing communications equipment, including fire size, spatial separation of incident facilities, topography, transportation corridors, initial attack responsibilities, and an increased requirement for reliable coverage.
A memo sent by the MAC Group recognizes how inadequate communications will force personnel to conduct a risk assessment and mitigate the situation by choosing alternative strategies or tactics and assigning human repeaters.
Water and food
The MAC Group reported that during the first three days on a fire personnel should not count on being supplied with food or water. Yes, water.
“Due to the current national fire situation including ongoing high demand for caterers, shower units, and bottled water etc., [Incident Management Team] members and fire suppression resources should travel and arrive at the incident self-sufficient for three days, including food and water,” the August 9 memo from the MAC Group warned.
Since COVID-19, many fireline personnel, especially hand crews, have been traveling with food and meal preparation equipment to be self-sufficient for even longer. But that was primarily to avoid crowded fire camps and the risk of infection.
"Amateurs talk about tactics, but professionals study logistics."
- Gen. Robert H. Barrow, USMC (Commandant of the Marine Corps) noted in 1980.
Members of Nez Perce Tribe Camp Crew 1 assigned to Great Basin Team 3’s Supply Unit at Headquarters, Idaho, load a truck with hoses, tools, ice, and water for firefighters working at a spike camp on the Cougar Rock Complex, July 29, 2021. Photo by Geoff Liesik, public information officer.
Dixie Fire map. The red line was the perimeter at 9:45 p.m. PDT Aug 9, 2021. The yellow areas represent intense heat. Not all of the fire was mapped due to the massive smoke plume up to 22,000 feet.
The Dixie Fire was burning so vigorously at 9:45 Monday night that the smoke plume which had risen to 22,000 feet made it impossible for the small fixed wing mapping plane to obtain good imagery on the northern section of the fire.
North of Highway 36, firefighters are attempting to prevent the north end of the fire from moving east across the A21/A25 Mooney Road. Dozer lines have been constructed to reinforce the road but spot fires have still occurred east of the lines. That is the section of the fire that could not be mapped Monday night.
To see all articles on Wildfire Today about the Dixie Fire, including the most recent, click HERE.
CAL FIRE reported at 7 p.m. Monday that it had burned at least 482,000 acres. However, later fixed wing and satellite imagery indicates it was still growing into the night.
For the last two days the Dixie Fire has been working its way around the southwest tip of the 2020 Sheep Fire, 10 miles southwest of Susanville. On the south side of the Sheep Fire is the scar from the 2007 Moonlight Fire, where the diminished fuels have slowed the spread, but the north side has no recent fire history, resulting in greater fire activity on that side. Our map in an article from August 6 shows the footprint of the Moonlight Fire. The map at the top of this article shows a lighter color of vegetation where that fire burned 14 years ago.
The latest data from crews evaluating damage to infrastructure have found 873 destroyed structures. Maps are available showing the status of structures.
Smoke Monday morning was slow to dissipate, hampering the use of aircraft. In the afternoon wind from the southwest gusting to 20 mph thinned it out, and also increased the fire behavior.
The GOES 17 satellite image, below, shows that the fire was very active at 6:46 p.m. Monday. At that time it was just beginning to form pyrocumulus clouds which later grew, forming a line of condensation that reached to Nevada.
Satellite photo, smoke from fires in Oregon and Northern California at 6:46 p.m. PDT Aug 9, 2021.Dixie Fire. Satellite photo at 8:26 p.m. PDT Aug 9, showing pyrocumulus stretching to Nevada.
The fires are occurring during the most severe heatwave in 30 years
1645 UTC, August 9, 2021
The icons on the map represent heat detected on fires by satellites on the Greek island of Evia as late as 1407 local time August 9, 2021.
Wildfires are burning through tens of thousands of acres on the Greek island of Evia, forcing some residents and tourists to evacuate by sea. Ferries are pulling up to resort beaches and dropping a ramp for people on foot to board.
The government ordered the evacuation of four villages in the northern part of the island, including Pefki which had been used as a temporary evacuation center.
And it is not just on Evia, the second largest island in Greece. Other blazes in the country have been forcing residents from their homes and destroying structures for more than a week. In some areas the fires have subsided, including a large blaze north of Athens and others in the Peloponnese region.
This is occurring during the most severe heatwave in 30 years in which temperatures have risen to 45C (113F) for days at a time.
The fires have led to two confirmed deaths, including a volunteer firefighter who died near Athens after being struck by a falling utility pole weakened by the fire, according to the Associated Press.
From NPR:
With its emergency responders overwhelmed, Greece has requested assistance from countries near and far. Several countries have already sent aircraft and firefighters, including France, Israel, Romania, Spain and the United States. The Navy Times reports that the U.S. Navy sent a reconnaissance plane late last week to assist efforts.
Greece is not the only country on fire. Amid a record heat wave, wildfires are also raging in Turkey, Lebanon and Italy. In Turkey, more than 500 square miles of coastal forest have been torched, and eight people have been killed. Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated there.
The video below has scenes showing residents and tourists boarding a ferry that beached at a resort as a fire burns nearby.
ABC Australia has a synopsis of the wildfire situation in Greece:
