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Mangum Fire threatens Jacob Lake, Arizona

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags , 2 Comments on Mangum Fire threatens Jacob Lake, Arizona

Evacuations are in effect in Jacob Lake

(UPDATED at 7:35 a.m. MDT June 14, 2020)

Mangum Fire map Jacob Lake Arizona
Map of the Mangum Fire. Heat data mapped at 9:12 p.m. June 13, 2020. The yellow line was the perimeter 28 hours before.

On Saturday the Mangum Fire burned very close to the small community of Jacob Lake, Arizona. During a 9:12 p.m. MDT mapping flight the fire was detected just west of the town very close to a campground and a U.S. Forest Service work center on Road 461. At that time it was less than a half mile from other facilities near the intersection of highways 89A and 67, an area with more campgrounds, an inn, and a Forest Service visitor center.

3-D Mangum Fire map Jacob Lake Arizona
3-D map of the Mangum Fire, looking west with heat data mapped at 9:12 p.m. June 13, 2020. The yellow line was the perimeter 28 hours before.

By 10 p.m. the GOES-17 satellite orbiting 22,200 miles above the Earth could no longer detect a large area of intense heat as seen in the photo below taken at 6:56 p.m. MDT Saturday. The temperature at a nearby weather station dropped to 42 degrees at 4 a.m. Sunday and overnight the wind was nearly calm after midnight. But the humidity remained low, rising from a low Saturday afternoon of 9 percent, to 29 percent by 6:47 a.m. Sunday. The fire is at high elevation, 7,000 to 8,000 feet.

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a Red Flag
Warning for the fire area Sunday due to strong winds and low relative humidity, in effect from noon to 7 p.m. MST Sunday evening. The forecast calls for a high of 79 degrees, RH of 9 percent, and 10 to 18 mph winds out of the southwest gusting at 24 to 28 mph. Similar conditions are expected for Monday. These conditions could continue to threaten Jacob Lake, which is under an evacuation order.

A Fire Weather Watch has also been issued for Tuesday due to strong winds and low relative humidity.

(UPDATED at 7:21 p.m. MDT June 13, 2020)

Mangum Fire satellite photo
As clouds cleared out and pushed to the north, heat and smoke from the Mangum Fire was photographed by the GOES-17 satellite at 6:56 p.m. MDT June 13, 2020.

(Originally published at 4:46 p.m. MDT June 13, 2020)

Mangum Fire map
3-D map of the Mangum Fire, looking east. Data (in red) from 1:04 a.m. MDT June 13, 2020. The yellow line was the perimeter 24 hours before. Wildfire Today.

Pushed by winds gusting up to 30 miles an hour, the Mangum Fire ran for an additional 8 miles to the north-northeast Friday. Creating spot fires up to one half mile ahead, it breached control lines and crossed highway 89A four miles northwest of Jacob Lake which is under evacuation orders.

For more information about evacuations contact the Coconino County Sheriff’s Office at 928-226-5089.

The fire is 18 miles southeast of Fredonia, Arizona and 12 miles north of the North Rim of the Grand Canyon.

Mangum Fire Arizona air tanker
Tanker 12, a BAe-146, over the Mangum Fire June 12, 2020. InciWeb photo.

The Mangum Fire more than quadrupled in size Friday, growing from 2,238 to 10,813 acres by 1:04 a.m. MDT June 13 when a fixed wing aircraft mapped the fire.

The area has been under Red Flag Warnings Friday and Saturday for low humidity and strong winds. On Friday the relative humidity dropped to 11 percent and the high temperature was 83 degrees at a weather station at Warm Springs Canyon. At 2:47 p.m. MST Saturday it was 71 degrees and 10 percent RH with the wind out of the south-southwest at 10 mph gusting to 25 mph.

Mangum Fire Arizona weather Warm Springs
Wind speed and direction recorded at Warm Springs, east of the Mangum Fire in northern Arizona, for the 24-hour period ending at 1:47 p.m. MDT June 13, 2020.

The Mangum Fire is creating a large amount of smoke that is being pushed to the north and northeast, affecting residents in Arizona, Utah, Colorado, Wyoming, and New Mexico.

The structure protection group assigned to the fire will continue working to create additional defensible space around structures and use burnouts intended to divert the blaze around the community. They are aided by a large number of fuel reduction projects around Jacob Lake that have been accomplished during the previous five years.

According to the Incident Management Team, “The fire is being managed utilizing a full suppression strategy, employing tactics that minimize impacts to important values at risk.The safety of firefighters and the public remain our number one priority.”

Saturday morning the Arizona Department of Transportation closed Highway 89A from approximately Marble Canyon to Fredonia and Highway 67 to the Grand Canyon for public safety. The U.S. Forest Service additionally has enacted a closure of the entire fire area.

Mangum Fire Arizona map
Vicinity map of the Mangum Fire in northern Arizona. Wildfire Today.
Mangum Fire Arizona
Smoke from the Mangum Fire as seen from Fredonia High School 18 miles northwest of the fire, June 12, 2020. InciWeb photo.

Wildfire potential in the southwest is higher than in 2019

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags , , ,

The Energy Release Component in Arizona and New Mexico is average or above for the date, but considerably higher than last year

Energy Release Component New Mexico
Energy Release Component, average of fire weather stations in New Mexico.

For the past two weeks most of the largest wildfires in the United States have been in Arizona, and recently the number of fires in New Mexico has also been increasing.

One of the reasons for this trend is reflected in the Energy Release Component (ERC) which is monitored from data collected at dozens of fire weather stations in the two states.

The ERC is an index indicating how hot a fire could burn. It is directly related to the 24-hour, potential worst case within the flaming front at the head of a fire.

The ERC can serve as a good characterization of a fire season since it tracks seasonal fire danger trends well. Fuel loading, woody fuel moistures, and larger fuel moistures all have an influence on the ERC, while the lighter fuels have less influence and wind speed has none. ERC has low variability, and is the best fire danger component for indicating the effects of intermediate to long-term drying on fire behavior.

Energy Release Component Arizona
Energy Release Component, average of fire weather stations in Arizona.

During the first six months of 2019 the statewide averages of ERC in Arizona and New Mexico were significantly below average, especially during May and June. So far during those two months this year the average ERCs have been slightly above average or well above. For the past week or so the statewide averages in the southwest have been above the 90th percentile and are nearing the 97th.

Click here to see ERC details at each of the fire weather stations in Arizona and New Mexico.

The weather forecasts for the next couple of weeks indicate that there is not much reason to think the ERCs will dip below average. WeatherUnderground predicts little or no rain in Phoenix, Flagstaff, or Albuquerque through the end of June. But the National Weather Service’s 8-14 day outlook predicts slightly higher probability of precipitation during that 7-day period, but with higher than normal temperatures.

8-14 day temperature and precipitation
8-14 day temperature and precipitation forecast. NWS.

On June 1 the Predictive Services office at the National Interagency Fire Center concluded the fire potential during June and July would be higher than normal in northwest New Mexico and most of Arizona.

potential wildfires fires weather forecast predictionpotential wildfires fires weather forecast prediction

Below are excerpts from NIFC’s June 1 wildfire outlook in the section about Arizona and New Mexico:

“Above Normal significant large fire potential is expected across most of Arizona and northwestern New Mexico through mid-July followed by a return to Normal potential after mid-July as the monsoon arrives. Other locations across the region can expect Normal significant large fire potential.

“Over the past two months, average high temperatures have been from 1-4 degrees above Average west of the divide and generally between 2-6 degrees above average further east. Some spots in eastern New Mexico have seen high temperatures from 6-8 degrees above average. As far as precipitation, most portions of the region have seen much drier conditions over the past 60 days.

“Significant Large Fire potential is anticipated to remain Normal for many areas east of the [Continental] Divide during the month of June while most portions of Arizona into northwestern and northern New Mexico will experience Above Normal significant large fire potential. The fine fuels will be the continued focus of fire activity entering June until the larger fuels become receptive mid-month and remain so until the monsoon’s arrival in mid-July.”

Red Flag Warnings in seven states, June 13, 2020

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories UncategorizedTags ,
Red Flag Warnings, June 13, 2020
Red Flag Warnings, June 13, 2020. NWS

The National Weather Service has issued Red Flag Warnings for June 13 in areas of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. Most of the areas will experience strong winds and low humidities, resulting in enhanced wildfire danger.

(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)

Bringham Fire triples in size in 24 hours

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags 5 Comments on Bringham Fire triples in size in 24 hours

The fire is 27 miles southwest of Alpine, Arizona

Bringham Fire eastern Arizona
Bringham Fire in eastern Arizona. Inciweb photo posted June 11, 2020.

After exhibiting moderate growth since it started from a lightning strike on June 6, the Bringham Fire in eastern Arizona more than tripled in size Thursday. It was mapped Wednesday night at 3,318 acres, and 24 hours later an infrared mapping aircraft determined it had grown to 10,803 acres.

The fire is 23 air miles north of Clifton, Arizona and 27 air miles southwest of Alpine, Arizona. Values at risk that have been identified include the highway, area cabins, Rose Peak lookout, campgrounds, natural and cultural resources, and threatened and endangered species and their habitat.

Bringham Fire Arizona Clifton Alpine map
Bringham Fire at 9:47 p.m. MST June 11, 2020.

Firefighters have been conducting burnout operations in an attempt to keep the fire east of Highway 191. Portable water tanks have been set up along the highway to support helicopter operations in this effort.

Resources on the fire include 4 hand crews, 1 initial attack crew, 4 engines, 2 water tenders, 3 helicopters, plus various incident management overhead.

Santa Barbara County firefighters seen in action on the Mockingbird Fire

Author Bill GabbertPosted on Categories WildfireTags ,

The fire was stopped after burning 5 to 10 acres near Gloleta, California

Mockingbird Fire -- Santa Barbara County Fire Department
A firefighter makes a mobile attack just ahead of a fire engine on the Mockingbird Fire — Santa Barbara County Fire Department, June 12, 2020. SBCFD photo.

Quick action today by Santa Barbara County Fire Department firefighters stopped the Mockingbird Fire before it could burn more than five to ten acres, which made it possible to lift the evacuation warnings in Goleta.

Mockingbird Fire -- Santa Barbara County Fire Department
Mockingbird Fire — Santa Barbara County Fire Department, June 12, 2020. SBCFD photo.

The video below by the Santa Barbara County Fire Department is excellent. You can almost feel the smoke stinging your eyes! And turn on the audio so you don’t miss the WHOP – WHOP – WHOP of the Huey.