On July 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for July through October. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.
If it is accurate firefighters could be busy at times in California, the Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies.
Below are:
the highlights of the NIFC report;
NIFC’s graphical outlooks for July through October;
Drought Monitor, and;
NOAA’s long range temperature and precipitation forecasts.
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Fire activity across the West began to increase significantly in June as preexisting dry conditions along with record setting heat events allowed for the fuels to become critically dry across portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and Southern California. By month’s end, fire activity began its usual expansion northward as fires became more frequent in the lower and middle elevations. Several wetting systems slowed fire activity in Alaska. The fire season in Georgia and Florida diminished as multiple wetting rain events relieved the pre existing drought conditions.
Timely precipitation along with above average soil moisture has led to the growth of an abundant crop of fine fuels across much of the west. Periodic cooler than average temperatures across the northwestern portion of the country has slowed curing and drying rates in the grasses and has continued to slow the melting rates of the remaining snowpack. The southwestern states, however, have been drier and more continuously warm than average for several months making fuels more receptive to fire activity. Due to below average precipitation received across the Great Plains portions of eastern Montana and the Dakotas should be monitored closely for a possible increase in fire activity in July. The eastern U.S. been largely milder than average as several frontal systems produced significant rainfall.
Above normal significant fire potential is expected across a large portion of the rangelands of the west through August before trending toward normal in September and October with seasonal changes that bring wetting precipitation. The Southwest can expect a typical end to its fire season as monsoonal moisture becomes more firmly established by the end of July. Higher elevations across northwestern states will continue to experience below normal significant fire potential in July followed by normal potential for August as high elevation heavy fuels begin to dry out. A normal reduction of fire activity is expected in September across much of the west. The eastern half of the nation is in full green-up and fuels are generally not receptive to significant fire activity. Expect these conditions to persist into fall.
Don’t let a day at the range turn into a nightmare! Remember, exploding targets,tracers and incendiary ammo are NOT allowed on public lands! pic.twitter.com/amQ3IfOqHC
Chimney Tops 2 Fire November 27, 2016. Photo by Brett Bevill.
The local prosecutor for the Gatlinburg area announced Friday that he has decided to drop the charges against the two teenaged boys initially thought to be responsible for starting the Chimney Tops 2 Fire that five days later burned into the city in eastern Tennessee killing 14 people, forcing 14,000 to evacuate, destroying or damaging 2,400 structures, and blackening 17,000 acres.
The logic used by Fourth Judicial District Attorney General Jimmy Dunn was that since other fires in the Gatlinburg area were caused by downed wind-blown power lines, it could not be proved that any one particular fire caused specific deaths or property damage.
The arson charge would be within the jurisdiction of the Federal government since it occurred on land administered by the National Park Service.
U.S. Attorney Nancy Stallard Harr issued a statement saying, “the U.S. Attorney’s Office is in communication with the District Attorney General’s office. A review of the evidence in this case will have to take place in order to determine whether it is appropriate to seek approval from the Attorney General to prosecute juvenile offenders in federal court.”
Mr. Dunn also issued a statement, reading in part:
…the unprecedented, unexpected and unforeseeable wind event that started in the early morning hours of November 28,2016, approximately four and a half days after the initial origin of the fire, was the primary reason of the Chimney Tops II fire traveled outside the park into Gatlinburg. But for the winds that reached speeds in excess of 80 miles per hour, it is highly unlikely and improbably that the Chimney Tops II fire would have left the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and reached Gatlinburg.
Below is the complete statement issued by District Attorney General Jimmy Dunn today:
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“For the past seven months, an investigation has been underway into the origin, cause and consequences of a fire that started on November 23, 20165, in an area of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park referred to the Chimney Tops. The investigation is now complete the investigation was led by the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation with the assistance of the National Park Service and local law enforcement, as well as various other local, state and federal agencies. The investigation involved thousands of investigative hours, over 100 witness and expert interviews across multiple states, thousands of potential witnesses, as well as thousands of pages of documents, records photographs and hours of video evidence and audio recordings.
After a comprehensive review of all of the evidence gathered and presented by the Tennessee Bureau of Investigation, Gatlinburg Police Department, Pigeon Forge Police Department, Sevier County Sheriff’s Office, the State, in consultation with other law enforcement agencies and various experts in wildfire progression, has determined that the unprecedented, unexpected and unforeseeable wind event that started in the early morning hours of November 28,2016, approximately four and a half days after the initial origin of the fire, was the primary reason of the Chimney Tops II fire traveled outside the park into Gatlinburg. But for the winds that reached speeds in excess of 80 miles per hour, it is highly unlikely and improbably that the Chimney Tops II fire would have left the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and reached Gatlinburg.
Because of this intervening weather event, the State is unable to prove the criminal responsibility of two juveniles beyond a reasonable doubt for the devastation that occurred outside the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. In addition to the wind, the State’s cause is further complicated by the fact that there were other fires in the area and other confirmed ignition points in the Gatlinburg area from multiple downed power lines that were felled by the wind. Some of these fires appear to have erupted prior to the fire from the Park breaching the Gatlinburg city limits. Once the investigation confirmed multiple fires with multiple points of origin, it became impossible to prove which fire may have caused the death of an individual or damage to a particular structure. Based upon this evidence, the State’s case was narrowed to prosecuting conduct that occurred wholly within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
Once the State determined that is prosecution may be limited to conduct and actions occurring within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park, the District Attorney’s Office conducted additional research and investigation into jurisdictional issues regarding criminal prosecution by the State for actions or events that occur wholly within National Park land. This investigation and research revealed the existence of two documents or “Memoranda of Agreement” regarding concurrent criminal jurisdiction between the State of Tennessee and the National Park Service. One of these documents specifically lists the Great Smoky Mountains National Park as being part of a concurrent criminal jurisdiction agreement between the State of Tennessee and the National Park Service on behalf of the Federal Government. The second of these documents is an exact duplicate of the first, save one critical difference: it does not include the Great Smoky Mountain National Park in the agreement. Eleven other National Park Service on behalf of the Federal Government. The second of these documents is an exact duplicate of the first, save one critical difference: it does not include the Great Smoky Mountain National Park in the agreement. Eleven other National Park Service properties are listed on each document. It is unclear how both of these documents got into circulation, but it is clear that both have been used by various agencies in different contests.
After becoming aware of these competing documents, the State notified the Defense immediately and sought advice from the State Attorney General’s Office as well as the U.S. Attorney’s Office as to which document was controlling and whether or not the State could prosecute criminal acts that occur within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. After reviewing the documents, both the State Attorney General’s Office and the U.S. Attorney’s Office advised that it was their respective opinions that the State of Tennessee does not have jurisdiction to prosecute criminal acts that occur wholly within the boundaries of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Therefore, any prosecution for criminal conduct occurring entirely within the boundary of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park must be initiated by the federal government.
Based upon these findings, the State has no other option but to dismiss the charges currently pending in state court as there is no subject matter jurisdiction that would allow the state court to take any action. To retain jurisdiction, the State must be able to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that at least one element of a criminal offense occurred outside of the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and within the State’s jurisdiction. The State has concluded that this burden cannot be met due to the intervening weather event that occurred before any fire reached the State’s jurisdiction. Therefore, the decision to prosecute any individuals alleged to have caused a fire within the Great Smoky Mountain National Park is now within the purview of the United States Department of Justice.
The District Attorney’s Office for the Fourth Judicial District would like to thank all agencies, law enforcement and otherwise, including the TBI, the National Park Service, the Sevier county Sheriff’s Office (with special recognition for the outstanding work done by the GIS Division), the Gatlinburg Police Department, the Pigeon Forge Police Department, the Pittman Center Police Department, the Department of the Interior, the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms and the Tennessee Department of Agriculture, Division of Forestry, for their incredible hard work in investigating this unprecedented event. This office would also like to thank and commend the hundreds of firefighters and police officers from the national, regional, state and local levels for their extraordinary bravery and courage in confronting these fires.”
Four years ago today, on June 30, 2013, 19 wildland firefighters were overrun by the Yarnell Hill Fire outside Yarnell, Arizona. One way to honor the service of the Granite Mountain Hotshots is for firefighters on this day to take 15 minutes and select one thing — one act, one task, one decision, one directive, or one action — that happened that day and discuss what it means to them. Just one. Don’t be tempted to point fingers, not today. Make it a positive learning experience.
Below is a short documentary produced by the Weather Channel that features the incident.
Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Perry. Typos or errors, report them HERE.
Above: Brady Fire, June 29, 2017. Photo by Bill Gabbert.
(Updated at 2:09 p.m. MDT July 1, 2017)
The updated size of the Brady Fire is 172 acres. The increase from 95 acres reported yesterday is due to more accurate mapping — the fire has not grown.
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(Updated at 12:40 p.m. MDT June 30, 2017)
The size of the Brady Fire 7 miles southeast of Edgemont, SD has been revised to 95 acres. Firefighters are estimating that about half an inch of rain fell on the fire Thursday night. In Hot Springs, 15 miles northeast of the fire, there was 0.12 inches overnight in addition to lots of lightning in the southern Black Hills.
Approximately 70 firefighters are on scene today, Friday, mopping up.
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(Updated at 9:14 p.m. MDT June 29, 2017)
The Brady Fire, discovered Thursday afternoon, has burned dozens of acres southeast of Edgemont, South Dakota. We’ll post more information as it becomes available. The fire is burning in timber and grass on fairly steep slopes on the north side of the Cheyenne River.
The Great Plains Interagency Dispatch Center reported at 5 p.m. Thursday it had burned 25 acres. The fire continued spreading slowly after that time, but received rain from a thunderstorm at 8:15 p.m.
Map showing the location of the Brady Fire, 7 miles southeast of Edgemont, SD.Brady Fire, June 29, 2017. Photo by Bill Gabbert.Brady Fire, June 29, 2017. Photo by Bill Gabbert.Brady Fire, June 29, 2017. Photo by Bill Gabbert.
Above: Map of the Brian Head Fire in southwest Utah. The red line was the perimeter at 2:30 a.m. MDT June 29, 2017. The white line was the perimeter 24 hours earlier.
(Originally published at 12:52 p.m. MDT June 27, 2017)
The spread of the Brian Head Fire in southwest Utah slowed on Wednesday, thanks to weather less conducive to extreme wildfire behavior, but it still continued to grow on the northeast side. In that area there are large expanses with much lighter vegetation (or fuels), possibly due to past fires, but a couple of spot fires east of those locations are in heavier fuels and have expanded during the last two to three days progressing to within six miles of Panguitch.
On Wednesday the fire consumed another 4,117 acres, bringing the total to 58,318 acres.
On Thursday firefighters will be assessing structure protection needs in Walker and Potato Patch as well as continuing efforts in Breezy Pines. Tactical options are being developed on the north side of the fire.
An illegally operated drone flew into the fire area Wednesday, forcing all firefighting aircraft to be grounded for safety reasons. Law enforcement responded and is investigating the incident. Hobbyist drone operators are reminded that “if you fly, we can’t fly.” There is a Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) over the fire area and it is against federal law to fly a drone within the restricted area. This also happened on the Goodwin Fire in Arizona Wednesday, as well as the Lightner Fire in Colorado.
Resources assigned to the fire include 48 hand crews, 82 engines, 14 helicopters, a variable number of air tankers, and 1,729 personnel. The suppression costs to date have totaled $14.9 million.
Evacuations are still in place for several communities.
