Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission plans to meet monthly

The Secretaries of Agriculture and Interior virtually attended the first meeting in Utah

First meeting of Wildland fire Mitigation & Management Commission
First meeting of Wildland fire Mitigation & Management Commission, Sept. 14-15, 2022.

After the first meeting of the new 50-person Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission in Utah, September 14-15, a few details were released about the meeting. Two of the three co-chairs attended virtually on both days, Interior Secretary Deb Haaland and Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack. Federal Emergency Management Administration Administrator Deanne Criswell was unable to attend and was represented by the Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks in person.

The group “Worked through operating protocols and developed a strategy for topical workgroups to address the full suite of issues the Commission is charged with as prescribed in the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law,” said Larry Moore, Communications Coordinator of the Office of Communications, US Department of Agriculture. “The meeting also included a presentation by subject matter experts on the National Cohesive Wildland Fire Management Strategy, which the commission is tasked with reviewing to make any recommendations to improve its effectiveness.”

The commission plans to meet monthly — usually virtually — over the course of the next year.

One of the deliverables required by the legislation within 45 days of the first meeting is an “inventory of surplus cargo and passenger aircraft and excess common-use aircraft parts that may be used for wildland firefighting purposes.” Mr. Moore said that information will be developed by the Department of Defense.

The Commission’s first report is due 90 days after the DOD aircraft report is received, and is required to “outline a strategy to meet aerial firefighting equipment needs through 2030 in the most cost-effective manner.” This is very tall order since the Aerial Firefighting Use and Effectiveness study spent about $13 million over nine years studying the use of firefighting aircraft and little meaningful information was released.

“AFUE was initially intended to eventually help answer questions about the size and composition of aviation assets needed by the USFS,” Tom Harbour, former USFS Director of Fire and Aviation told Fire Aviation last year.

The final public version of the report did not address those issues. Some may think the Forest Service is afraid to make the tough decisions, so they are being farmed out to an unpaid group of 50 outside the agency, most with little fire aviation expertise.

If the commission had access to the unreleased drafts of the AFUE report, which we have been told actually had worthwhile information, those would be incredibly helpful.

A third deliverable, due September 15, 2023, is for the Commission to “describe recommendations to prevent, mitigate, suppress, and manage wildland fires.”

Hurricane Ian pushes north winds and low humidity into much of the Southeast

Fire weather outlook Sept. 28, 2022
Fire weather outlook Sept. 28, 2022. NOAA Storm Prediction Center.

The counter-clockwise rotation of winds around Hurricane Ian has brought north winds and low humidity to portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and the panhandle of Florida. The combination of a strong surface high to the north and the strong pressure gradient around the hurricane will drive moderately strong northerly winds across much of the Southeast on Wednesday.

The forecast is for humidity in the teens and 20s with wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph Wednesday afternoon.

Wind forecast for 2 p.m. CDT Sept. 28, 2022
Wind forecast for 2 p.m. CDT Sept. 28, 2022. Windy.com. The colors represent wind speed in knots. See legend at lower-right. 

In the wind forecast above for 2 p.m. CDT Wednesday, Hurricane Ian is predicted to make landfall near Cape Coral, Florida.

The National Weather Service’s Red Flag Warning map was a little more conservative than the Storm Prediction Center’s designations of elevated and critical fire weather.

Red Flag Warnings
Red Flag Warnings at 8:45 a.m. Sept. 28, 2022. NWS.

The Storm Prediction Center’s forecast for Thursday is for elevated fire weather only in southern Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

NPR interviews locals and Forest Service employees about fuels treatments and the Caldor and Radford Fires

Caldor Fire map
Caldor Fire map showing the location of Grizzly Flats. The white line was the perimeter at 8:20 p.m. August 18, 2021. The red areas represent heat detected by an aircraft at 6:44 p.m. PDT Aug. 19, 2021. The fire continued spreading east, coming very close to South Lake Tahoe.

National Public Radio is publishing a series of at least two short audio stories about treating fuels to reduce the chance of large fires spreading into populated areas.

The first episode, only four minutes long, examined what the US Forest Service promised the residents of Grizzly Flats the agency would do to treat the fuels close to the community. But last year the Caldor Fire destroyed about two-thirds of the town’s structures as it burned to the edge of South Lake Tahoe.

Randy Moore, Chief of the US Forest Service, was asked in the episode if the Forest Service had any responsibility for the outcome in Grizzly Flats.

“Well, I mean, I don’t know what kind of question that is,” he replied. “I mean, you know, do anybody bear any responsibility for not having the budget to do the work that we need to do?”

Episode 1, Sept. 26, 2022. Four minutes.

Transcript of Episode 1.


In the next episode, a local Southern California Burn Boss explains some of the challenges she faces in scheduling a prescribed fire.

The reporter says the San Bernardino National Forest refused to disclose its budget after months of “multiple asks and a Freedom of Information Act request.” The Burn Boss, however, gives a hint.

They also talked with a local resident who evacuated from the Radford Fire near Big Bear earlier this month.

Episode 2, Sept. 27, 2022.

Transcript of Episode 2.


Update Sept. 28, 2022. Cap Radio, which may have collaborated with NPR on the above segments, has a detailed article published August 16 about the proposed fuel reduction project the US Forest Service proposed to lessen the risk to the Grizzly Flats community. It walks us through the ambitious project from conception to completing only 14 percent of the planned work before the Caldor Fire wiped out the town. One of many stumbling blocks were complaints from Chad Hanson, co-founder of the John Muir Project, a nonprofit that aims to protect biodiversity in national forests and fiercely opposes tree removal. One of Hanson’s primary concerns was the California spotted owl, which is designated as a “sensitive species” by the Forest Service.

Our take.

We’re not sure how often this has occurred in Washington over the last 20 years, but Chief Moore’s predecessor in April 2021 squandered a softball opportunity to tell the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior, Environment, and Related Agencies that the Forest Service needed more funding in two very important inadequately budgeted areas, fuels treatment and aerial firefighting. In a June 9, 2022 Congressional hearing Chief Moore squandered a similar opportunity, giving an incoherent response when basically asked, “Do you have enough firefighting aircraft?”

Authorities suspect smoke from grass fire led to a multiple vehicle crash on I-35 in Oklahoma Tuesday

Authorities report at least one person was killed

Crash closes I-35 in Oklahoma, Sept. 27, 2022
Crash and a grass fire close I-35 in Oklahoma, Sept. 27, 2022. Oklahoma Highway Patrol photo.

Interstate 35 in Noble County, Oklahoma Tuesday was closed for hours following a multiple vehicle crash in which at least one person died. Aerial footage showed fires in the rubble of mangled semi trucks and other vehicles. A nearby grass fire burned up to the Interstate and authorities suspect smoke from the fire reduced the visibility that led to the crash.

The Oklahoma Highway Patrol said the highway was completely shut down southbound at mile marker 211 and northbound at mile marker 203.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Matt.

Elevated or critical fire danger predicted Tuesday and Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity

Updated at 4:21 p.m. CDT Sept, 27, 2022

Wind, noon CDT, Sept. 27, 2022
Wind forecast for noon CDT, Sept. 28, 2022. Windy.com

It turns out that one of the reasons for the elevated fire dangers and the strong north winds in Louisiana, Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama is the counter-clockwise rotation around Hurricane Ian. This wind forecast for noon CDT on Wednesday shows the northerly flow in those states which is similar to the winds on Tuesday, but the speeds will be higher Wednesday.

The colors on the map represent wind speed, not precipitation. The legend for wind speed is at bottom-right (in knots).


Updated at 4 p.m. CDT Sept, 27, 2022

Red Flag Warnings, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida fire
Red Flag Warnings, 4 p.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022

The National Weather Service has modified this fire weather forecast repeatedly on Tuesday afternoon for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity, possibly due to complications caused by Hurricane Ian which is headed to the west side of Florida near Tampa.

The map above was current Tuesday at 4 p.m. CDT. There will be some Red Flag Warnings in the area on Wednesday, but we’ll wait until Wednesday morning to post the map, after the forecast settles a bit.


Red Flag Warnings, Sept 27, 2022
Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches, 11:10 a.m. CDT Sept 27, 2022.

Low humidity and strong wind predicted on Tuesday and Wednesday for the Central Gulf Coast vicinity brings elevated fire danger to areas of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida.

A Red Flag Warning is in effect Tuesday afternoon for southwest Alabama and southeast Mississippi.

Fire weather central MS
Fire weather Sept. 27, 2022 for central MS, northeast LA, and southwest AR.

Weather forecasters expect the relative humidity will be in the low 20s across much of the area or even the high teens near the Gulf Coast. Afternoon wind gusts will be greater than 20 mph.

The forecast for Wednesday is for the critical fire weather to expand further into Alabama, the Florida panhandle, and Georgia.

Fire Weather Outlook, Sept 28, 2022
Fire Weather Outlook, Sept 28, 2022.

Forest Service seized PG&E equipment during investigation of Mosquito Fire

The fire has burned 76,781 acres and destroyed 78 structures near Foresthill, California

Mosquito Fire
Mosquito Fire as seen looking ENE from the Auburn camera at 5:32 p.m. Sept. 8, 2022. AlertWildfire.

US Forest Service investigators working to determine the cause of the Mosquito Fire have taken possession of one of Pacific Gas and Electric’s transmission poles and attached equipment. According to a report released by the company September 24, the Forest Service said the fire started in the area of one of the company’s power lines on Forest Service land. PG&E is conducting their own investigation of the cause of the fire.

The agency has not released the cause of the fire which has burned 76,781 acres and destroyed 78 structures near Foresthill, California 35 miles northeast of Sacramento.

In October, 2020 investigators from the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection looking for the cause of the Zogg Fire southwest of Redding seized PG&E equipment. The fire which burned 56,338 acres, destroyed 204 structures, and resulted in four civilian fatalities, was caused by a tree contacting a power line operated by PG&E. In September, 2021 the company was charged with manslaughter and dozens of other charges related to the fire.

In 2018 investigators seized parts of a 99-year old PG&E transmission tower at the origin of the Camp Fire which burned into Paradise, California killing at least 85 people and making thousands homeless. In May, 2019 CAL FIRE announced that their investigators determined the fire was caused by the power line.

The Wall Street Journal (subscription) reported that investigators attributed more than 1,500 fires to PG&E power lines and hardware between June 2014 and December 2017. In 2021 we put together a list of 18 fires, mostly large, attributed to failures on PG&E power lines between 1999 and 2020.

Firefighters are mopping up the Mosquito Fire, which received substantial amounts of rain last week. It is still staffed by 1,248 personnel.

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Kelly.