The fire has burned 77,758 acres north of Santa Rosa, California
The Kincade Fire as seen from the St. Helena North camera at 9:06 a.m. PDT Oct. 27, 2019. Looking toward Healdsburg.
The Kincade Fire that raced across 77,758 acres north of Santa Rosa, California is not completely out and will not be for weeks or months, but there has not been any major spread for days. Satellites that can detect large areas of heat have not found any since November 1, but firefighters are still mopping up, extinguishing Black Oak stumps that the satellites can’t see, and are putting in fireline where needed. They will also need to repair miles of dozer line that helped keep the fire in check.
CAL FIRE reports that 175 homes, 11 commercial structures, and 186 other buildings have been destroyed.
All evacuation orders have been lifted except for three locations: Briggs Ranch Road area, Highway 128 North Knights Valley area to the Napa County Line, and The Chalk Hill Road area. (more information)
Resources assigned to the fire include 356 engines, 45 water tenders, 3 helicopters, 95 hand crews and 28 dozers for a total of 3,929 personnel.
The Press Democrat is not a huge media outlet, but the staff does a great job of covering wildfires in California’s North Bay. A November 1 article that summarizes the evolution of the Kincade Fire since it started on October 23 is evidence of why citizens should support local news and other original reporting. Their in-depth story has excellent photos and graphics as well as details you will not find other places.
The fire started 13 minutes after SCE re-energized power lines near the point of origin
Map of the Maria Fire. All evacuations have been lifted. The pink line and green lines are where evacuations have been lifted. Source: Ventura County at 6:20 a.m. PDT Nov. 2, 2019.
UPDATED at 6:35 p.m. PDT November 2, 2019
The Ventura County Fire Department announced at 2:39 p.m. Saturday that all evacuation orders on the Maria Fire have been lifted.
More accurate mapping determined that the fire has burned 9,412 acres, which is a decrease from the 10,720-acre figure released earlier.
The number of structures burned has remained at three. That has not been broken down as to the type, such as outbuildings, homes, or commercial structures.
Saturday morning there were still 1,200 personnel assigned to the fire.
Crews from many different agencies are working hard to make areas safe for the public to return to. Fire weakens infrastructure and creates hazards that need to be addressed. Check out this video for more. pic.twitter.com/A2VdXvB9TF
We spotted the fire turning crosswind after departing SZP, this is at 6:16:29 pm, we texted people on the ground to call it in, as well as calling it in to PT Mugu approach over the radio. pic.twitter.com/wuRA56Dy5D
Friday afternoon the Maria Fire east of Ventura, California grew by another 2,000 acres on the west and north sides. The Ventura County Fire Department said a total of 10,720 acres have burned.
As the fire moved north into the Santa Clara river bottom on Friday live views from cameras on helicopters showed several structures burning, some of which appeared to be affiliated with ranching or farming. Horses freed by ranch hands were running from the fire.
The UPI reports that the fire, which started near mountaintop communication sites, may have been related to re-energized power lines.
Southern California Edison said that though it’s not sure what caused the Maria Fire, the company did re-energize its power lines in the vicinity about 13 minutes before it sparked. The company had previously cut off power to the area amid strong winds.
(Scroll down to see a tweet that has a photo of the fire shortly after it started.)
SCE power lines caused the huge fire across the valley from the Maria Fire, the Thomas Fire that in December, 2017 blackened 230,500 acres and destroyed 1,063 structures (see the map below). Two people were killed directly by the Thomas fire, one firefighter and a civilian, and 21 were killed later by flooding and mud flows off the vegetation-free mountains. Over 8,500 firefighters were mobilized to fight it, which is the largest mobilization of firefighters for combating any wildfire in California history. The cost of suppressing the fire was over $200 million.
Drones over the fire Friday at 3:19 a.m. and 4:05 a.m. shut down the water dropping activities of two night-flying helicopters, the LA Times reported. According to @VCscanner, Air Attack 51 reported one of the drones at about 3,000 feet, resulting in all firefighting aircraft having to shut down.
The Red Flag Warning has been extended through 6 p.m. Saturday due to very dry air with humidity levels from 2 to 8 percent, recovering only to 8 to 18 percent overnight. Daytime highs on Saturday and Sunday in the fire area are expected to be between 77 and 85 degrees. Northeast winds will persist through Saturday, with the Ventura County Mountains and Valleys experiencing 10-25 mph winds and gusts of 25-35 mph. Weaker but still present offshore winds will be present Saturday night through Sunday.
Red Flag Warnings November 2, 2019 include the Maria Fire area. NWS
UPDATED at 12:15 p.m. PDT Nov. 1, 2019
The wind on the north side of the Maria Fire has shifted. Instead of coming from the northeast it is now from the east at 10 mph gusting to 20, which is pushing the fire toward the river bottom south of Santa Paula. Additional firefighting resources are being dispatched to deal with the increased threat to structures.
Video from television helicopters has showed structures burning.
The Ventura County Fire Department reported at 12:10 p.m. Friday that the fire had burned 8,700 acres.
The red dots represent heat on the Maria Fire detected by a satellite at 2:06 a.m. PDT November 1, 2019. Click to enlarge.
Hot Dry Windy Index for the Santa Clarita area, created October 31, 2019.
The weather in southern California will be dry and breezy on Friday and Saturday but not to the extreme levels seen earlier this week. There are no Red Flag Warnings, but in Santa Clarita where the Tick Fire occurred for example, the forecast calls for 10 to 14 mph northeast winds gusting at 16 to 29 off and on into Friday night. Through Saturday the relative humidity will remain below 10 percent during the day with no recovery at night.
The Hot-Dry-Windy Index will be above the 75th percentile on Friday and Saturday.
Friday morning the chart below was revised to add the red “Critical” area that was not in the version issued Thursday. That is where the Maria Fire started at 6:15 p.m. Thursday east of Ventura, California.
Elevated and Critical Fire Weather for November 1, 2019.Weather forecast for the Santa Clarita area for the 48-hour period beginning at 4 p.m. PDT October 31, 2019.
There are no Red Flag Warnings in the medium-range weather outlook for southern California, but it is supposed to be dry.
Good News: 12Z models do not indicate any significant chances of #SantaAnaWinds next 10-15 days.
Bad News: deterministic GFS and ECMWF dry the next 10-15 days for #SoCal. Even the GFS ensemble only has 2-3 members indicating any light rain.
New wildfires in the greater San Diego area, updated at 6:42 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.New wildfires in the greater Los Angeles area, updated at 6:42 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.
Here we will keep a list of the new wildfires as they occur in southern California during the extremely strong northeast wind event. This list will include very brief information about each fire. The locations are shown on the map above.
Hillside Fire
Time of update: 6:55 a.m. Thursday
Location: at Highway 18 near Lupin Lane. San Bernardino/North Park/Wildwood Park. 34.183 latitude, -117.285 longitude
Size: about 200 acres
Status: Active, multiple homes have been destroyed, 500 homes evacuated. Highway 18 is closed between 40th St. in San Bernardino and Highway 138 in Crestline. The area is experiencing 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 60. Evacuation orders are in place.
Map showing the location of the Hillside Fire at 3:12 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019
46 Fire
Time of update: 11:16 p.m. Thursday
Location: 5300 block of 46th Street in Jurupa Valley in Riverside County.
Size: 300 acres at 6:30 a.m. Thursday
Status: Active, evacuations in effect. CAL FIRE reports that three residential structures and two outbuildings are confirmed destroyed.
Copper Fire
Time of update: 6:55 a.m. Thursday
Location: On the U.S./Mexico Border on Otay Mountain near Copper Canyon in southern San Diego County.
Size: CAL FIRE reports that 50 acres have burned on the U.S. side of the border. At Wildfire Today we estimate that approximately 500 acres in Mexico have burned.
Status: At 7:57 a.m. Thursday CAL FIRE reported that the spread on the portion of the fire in the U.S. has been stopped. Firefighters south of the border are engaged as well.
Smoke from the Copper Fire as seen from the Otay camera at 8:36 a.m. PDT Oct. 31, 2019.
Castlewood Fire
Time of update: 7:29 a.m. Thursday
Location: Castlewood Drive and north Gilbert St, Fullerton
Size: About 15 to 20 acres
Status: Firefighters have stopped the spread.
Easy Fire
Time of update: 7:13 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: Simi Valley south of the 118 freeway, north of Madera Road, west of Acapulco Ave., and west of the 23 freeway.
Size: 1,723 acres (according to Ventura County Fire Department at 6:52 a.m. Thursday)
Status: Some evacuations are still in effect. Two structures have burned. Firefighters have stopped the spread.
Location: on the east side of the 57 freeway where it crosses over Brea Canyon Road three miles south of the 60 freeway.
Size: 16 acres
Status: Firefighters stopped the spread at 16 acres
Yosemite Fire
Time of update: 7:30 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: In Simi Valley just south of the 118 freeway just east of Yosemite Ave. Near the intersection of Serena St. and Meralda Ave.
Size: estimate, one to two acres
Status: Started at about 1:25 p.m. Wednesday. Burned in the back yards of several homes on both sides of Yosemite Ave. Firefighters stopped the spread. A helicopter had to make a precautionary landing due to a mechanical problem, but there were no injuries.
Whittier Fire
Time of update: 4:52 p.m. PDT October 30, 2019
Location: 555 Durfee Ave South El Monte
Size: 2-3 acres
Status: Reported around 4:30 p.m. Wednesday. The spread was stopped at about 2-3 acres.
Dexter Fire
Time of update: 7:33 a.m. PDT Thursday
Location: Mission Ave at Mt. Rubidoux Dr., Riverside
Size: 30 acres
Status: It was reported at 11:40 a.m. on Wednesday. Evacuations have been lifted. Firefighters have stopped the spread.
Firefighters are working diligently to stop the Easy Fire at the 23 freeway. At least two spot fires erupted on the west side but were suppressed with the aid of aircraft. At times the winds were too extreme for any aircraft but late in the afternoon they subsided enough to allow helicopters and fixed wing air tankers to rejoin the fight.
Ventura County Fire Department officials said the fire has burned about 1,400 acres.
News Update : DC-10 Air tanker in action over the 23 freeway as fire crews battle to stop the #Easyfire in California from spreading.
Video : CHPWestValleypic.twitter.com/MoJDDSTxZP
Map showing the APPROXIMATE location, based on live camera views, of the rapidly spreading Easy Fire at 10:30 a.m. PDT Oct. 30, 2019. Not to be used for planning or evacuation decisions.
The Easy Fire in Simi Valley has burned at least 1,300 acres according to an estimate from Ventura County authorities and has burned completely around the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in southern California. Goats have been used to reduce the vegetation around structures at the library which no doubt improved its survivability. (see map above)
Two DC-10 Very Large Air Tankers are working the fire but Air Attack is having a difficult time selecting targets in the strong wind that can be dropped on effectively.
Aircraft over the Easy Fire at 11:30 a.m. Oct. 30, 2019, including two DC-10 Very Large Air Tankers, T-910 & T-914.
There are a total of 8 air tankers, 9 helicopters, and 800 firefighters working the fire.
The fire is threatening 6,500 homes.
At least two semi trucks have been overturned by the wind.
At least seven helicopters are dropping water on the fire but their effectiveness is reduced at times by the wind blowing the water off target. Two Super Scooper air tankers are also on scene and are concentrating on protecting the Reagan Presidential Library.
The Easy Fire that started in Ventura County in southern California before dawn spread very rapidly from Easy Street across Tierra Rejada Road toward the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library. At 8 a.m. it had burned approximately 200 acres and was approaching the library and several homes east of Highway 23 north of Madera Road. (see map below)
Electricity could be shut off for millions of people
Red Flag Warnings for extreme fire danger October 29, 2019. NWS.
Red Flag Warnings in northern and southern California include forecasts for very strong winds and single digit humidity that will make wildfires difficult or impossible to suppress until, 1) the weather changes, or 2) the fire runs out of fuel.
Conditions in the southern part of the state will be critical, especially in the greater Los Angeles area which should expect 30 to 55 mph winds gusting at 75 to 85 with humidity of 3 to 8 percent.
Below is the National Weather Service forecast for Santa Clarita, near last week’s Tick Fire north of Los Angeles: Tuesday night, winds 41 to 46 mph gusting out of the northeast at 61 to 68. The relative humidity will drop to the single digits by noon on Wednesday.
NWS forecast for the Santa Clarita, CA area, beginning October 29, 2019. The wind barbs point to the direction the wind will be FROM.
Below is information about this weather event from Jim Cantore of The Weather Channel Tuesday morning:
Jim Cantore, The Weather Channel.
No good news for California over the next 48 hours. Current fires and any new fires will be almost impossible to control at the height of pending high wind/ super low RH event. Some scary scenarios come to mind with the latest SPC read. pic.twitter.com/m9GDKrJLxT
The three large utility companies could potentially shut off the power to millions of people in California beginning Tuesday. The maps below were collected from the web sites of the power companies at 8:30 a.m. PDT October 29 and show areas that could potentially be affected by power shutoffs. The information could change.
San Diego Gas & Electric’s communities at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. SDG&E.Southern California Edison’s areas at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. SCE.Pacific Gas & Electric’s areas at risk of power shutoffs October 29, 2019. PG&E.
(Red Flag Warnings can be modified throughout the day as NWS offices around the country update and revise their weather forecasts.)
