Billions in losses, thousands could die if wildfire response unchanged: report

Cub Creek 2 Fire
Cascade Type 2 IA crew on Cub Creek 2 Fire in Northern Washington, July 25, 2021. InciWeb.

A team of scientists from British Columbia, the United States, and Spain say Western Canada must address the threats posed by highly destructive wildfires or face deadly consequences.

The scientists, including Mathieu Bourbonnais, assistant professor of earth and environmental sciences at the University of British Columbia Okanagan, predict devastating wildfires such as those currently burning in B.C. and elsewhere in the country will be commonplace by 2050.

The group has released a paper predicting billions of dollars in suppression and indirect fire costs as well as hundreds or thousands of premature deaths due to exposure to wildfire smoke if climate change and fire causes are not resolved.

The warning comes as statistics from the B.C. government show 1,251 wildfires have charred more than 4,500 square kilometres of bush since the start of the fire season on April 1.

Three dozen of those blazes are considered extremely threatening or highly visible and include the 395 square kilometre fire southwest of 100 Mile House that remains out of control and prompted an evacuation alert for another 161 properties on Wednesday.

Environment Canada has issued heat warnings or special weather statements for inland sections of the north and central coasts and much of southern B.C., as the BC Wildfire Service warns the combination of high temperatures and low relative humidity will make wildfires even more intense.

Bourbonnais, who spent years working as a wildland firefighter, says in a statement that a new long-term plan is needed because it’s simplistic and insufficient to blame the wildfire crisis on the forest sector or wildland fire management agencies.

“Wildfires affect so many facets of our society and environment including health, the economy, biodiversity, ecosystem function and more,” he says in the release.

“Wildland fire management must engage additional proponents, including Indigenous Peoples, industry and communities, to help people learn to live with the realities of landscapes and ecological systems that include wildfires but, over time, work to reduce their more catastrophic effects.”

The economic and social costs of wildfire response are unsustainable, the scientists argue.

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First published by The Canadian Press

Forecast for wildfire smoke July 14 & 15, 2021

1:48 p.m. MDT July 14, 2021

Smoke forecast for 8 p.m. MDT July 14, 2021
Smoke forecast for 8 p.m. MDT July 14, 2021. NOAA.

Above is NOAA’s forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke at 8 p.m. MDT July 14, 2021.

Below is the Canadian’s version of a forecast for the distribution of wildfire smoke 24 hours later, at 8 p.m. MDT July 15, 2021.

Smoke forecast for 8 p.m. MDT July 15, 2021
Smoke forecast for 8 p.m. MDT July 15, 2021. Canadian government.

The photo below taken Wednesday morning in Northeast North Dakota shows visibility being compromised by smoke, which may have originated in Canada.

Smoke in North Dakota, July 14, 2021
Smoke in North Dakota, July 14, 2021. Photo by Misty Kirbitz.

Large wildfires in Manitoba prompt smoke advisories

Manitoba fires map
Map showing the locations of wildfires in Southern Manitoba at 5:12 a.m. CDT May 18, 2021. Based on heat detected by satellites.

Multiple wildfires in Southern Manitoba grew large Monday pushed by strong winds while the temperature was high and the relative humidity was low. The smoke being produced by the blazes prompted Environment Canada to issue multiple special air quality statements Monday evening.

“Localized areas of smoke are creating reduced visibilities and poor air quality down wind of fires,” the agency said in the statement.

Satellite photo of smoke from Manitoba wildfires
Satellite photo of smoke from Manitoba wildfires, May 17, 2021.

The areas under the air quality statement as of Monday evening include:

  •  Whiteshell – Lac du Bonnet – Pinawa
  •  Arborg – Hecla – Fisher River – Gypsumville – Ashern
  •  Bissett – Victoria Beach – Nopiming Provincial Park – Pine Falls
  •  Brandon – Neepawa – Carberry – Treherne
  •  Dauphin – Russell – Roblin – Winnipegosis
  •  Dugald – Beausejour – Grand Beach
  •  Grand Rapids – Waterhen
  •  Selkirk – Gimli – Stonewall – Woodlands
  •  Ste. Rose – McCreary – Alonsa – Gladstone

Four 10-person teams of firefighters are being brought in from Ontario to assist, while Quebec sent two air tankers and a bird dog aircraft.

Ontario firefighters en route Manitoba fire
Ontario firefighters en route to assist with wildfires in Manitoba May 15, 2021. Photo by Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources.

The EA044 fire 23 Km (14 miles) west of Gypsumville seen on the map above is very close to another much larger fire. They may be all one fire separated by an area of light vegetation that cooled in between heat-detecting satellite overflights. If they are one, they cover an area of approximately 52,500 hectares (130,000 acres). About 28,300 hectares (70,000 acres) burned at that location Monday during the strong winds.

Below are forecasts produced by FireSmoke Canada for the distribution of wildfire smoke on Tuesday and Thursday. The circles with numbers indicate multiple fires at each location.