Australia set for a normal summer fire season

Launch of the Australian Spring 2025 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.

Australia is set for a “normal” fire season across the southern states this upcoming summer, with only parts of western Victoria and eastern South Australia threatening anything more serious.

Almost two years of extremely low rainfall in those parts have created deeply dried vegetation and soils that will quickly become more volatile once the weather heats up.

The Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook for spring was released today at the AFAC25 conference in Perth, Western Australia. The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC), the Bureau of Meteorology and the nation’s Fire Commissioners and Chiefs prepare the quarterly outlook to prepare resources and community messages tailored for each state. The spring outlook is the most important for the populous eastern and southern states as it leads into the main summer bushfire season.

Launch of the Australian Spring 2025 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.
Launch of the Australian Spring 2025 Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting likely good rainfall this spring in these parts but the quantity and extent of coverage is less certain. If rain eventuates, it will increase the green vegetation and could result in a subdued fire season. If the rains do not come the heat will surely dry the abundant fuels that will burn with the help of the underlaying dryness.

Despite large parts of the country more likely to receive wetter than normal conditions, parts of the east and west still have a heightened risk of fire.

The Outlook for spring 2025 identifies a heightened risk of fire for the Dampier Peninsula, Derby Coast and the Central Kimberley, Little Sandy Desert, and south-eastern Pilbara in Western Australia, the south-eastern agricultural areas of the Murraylands in South Australia. and the south, southwest, central, and southwest Gippsland regions in Victoria.

The higher risk of fire in Western Australia follows increased fuel growth following seasonal rains, coupled with the predicted warmer than normal temperatures and higher likelihood of below average rainfall through spring.

Towards the southeast of Australia, surface moisture is hiding deeper drying that has resulted from long term rainfall deficiencies built over the last 12-18 months. Some places have reported their lowest ever rainfall during this period. If spring rainfall doesn’t eventuate, the conditions will rapidly switch to an increased risk of fire.

A strong Wet season across much of northern Australia has saturated the land, reducing the risk of early season fires, particularly in the forested areas of Queensland. The grasslands are expected to be the only source of trouble for fire authorities as they quickly dry out, particularly in the sparse Kimberley and Pilbara regions.

AFAC CEO Rob Webb stressed that even in a “normal” season, fast moving and dangerous fires will likely still occur and communities needed to prepare now. “No matter where you live or travel this season, everyone can play an important role in bushfire safety this spring by being prepared and staying alert to warnings and advice. Having a plan doesn’t take long and might just make the difference. Local fire authorities will be monitoring bushfire risk this season so you can stay up to date and ready to act if there is an emergency.”

Wildfire Today is a Media Partner of the AFAC25 Conference Powered by Intershutz.

See the full Australian Seasonal Bushfire Outlook.

New wildfire alert system cuts down warning times

Oklahoma is the testing ground for a new wildfire system that uses local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices to quicken alerts sent to nearby communities.

The alert system software, called “Wildfire Analyst,” was created by wildfire technology company Technosylva. Its promising results were backed up at a recent U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology hearing.

Oklahoma State Forester Mark Goeller explained the system to representatives while testifying at the hearing. He said the software, using NWS data and local emergency management warning systems, significantly reduces fire warning times by predicting a wildfire’s potential spread from the ignition point.

“The fire warning was issued in just six minutes on a recent wildfire occurring in a heavily populated wildland/urban interface area in the Oklahoma City metro,” Goeller said. “Oklahoma is the first state in the nation to use this system. Using our legacy process, it often required approximately 90 minutes to issue the fire warning.”

The Wildfire Analyst software has three core applications, according to Technosylva. The software’s “FireSim” application was the main tool Goeller referred to during the hearing. The application generates real-time fire spread predictions and supports wildfire planning through “what if” scenarios. The software’s other two applications, “FireRisk” and “FireSight,” predict wildfire risk days through forecasts and calculate risk reduction, respectively.

The state’s goal to overhaul its wildfire alert system started after its 2005-06 season when numerous fires burned in Texas and Oklahoma, Goeller said during the hearing. The fires resulted from prolonged drought and strong winds and killed 25 people and 5,000 head of cattle — and destroyed hundreds of homes, according to the Wildland Fire Lessons Learned Center.

Soon after that catastrophic season, the “Southern Great Plains Wildfire Outbreak Group” came together, including members of the Oklahoma Forestry Services, Texas Forest Service, and National Weather Service forecast offices. The partnership spawned from that group eventually led officials to look specifically at how weather dynamics did and could affect the states’ wildfire response.

“The things that I would emphasize as the lessons learned are for other states’ forestry agencies and local emergency management agencies to get to really working closely with their National Weather Service forecast offices,” Goeller said. “Look at the model we apply in Oklahoma, look at the process we went through … the research that went into what affects our weather systems would absolutely be employable in other places.”

Oklahoma is the testing ground for a new wildfire system that uses local National Weather Service (NWS) forecast offices to quicken alerts sent to nearby communities.

The alert system software, called “Wildfire Analyst,” was created by wildfire technology company Technosylva. Its promising results were backed up at a recent U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space and Technology hearing.