Harrowing story of wilderness rangers fleeing in canoes from a wildfire

They paddled furiously through two to three-foot waves in the smoke-created darkness looking for a fire shelter deployment site.

This video is a must-see.

It is the enthralling story of how six U.S. Forest Service employees had near misses and entrapments in 2011 on the Pagami Creek Fire within the Superior National Forest in Minnesota.

The video is well done, with the wilderness rangers telling in their own words, very eloquently, how they fled in their canoes from the fire that had been managed, rather than suppressed, for 25 days, until it ran 16 miles on September 12, eventually consuming over 92,000 acres of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness. If the video was a book I’d say you would not be able to put it down.

It tells how the USFS employees were caught out in front of the rapidly spreading fire in canoes while trying to evacuate the recreating public from the area. At one point when they were fleeing the fire, the smoke was so thick they could not see the fronts of their canoes.

Pagami Creek Fir
Pagami Creek Fire. USFS photo.

Two people bailed out of a canoe to take refuge in the cold water, deploying a single fire shelter over their heads as they floated away from the canoe, suspended by their life jackets.

Two others were flown out at the last minute by a float plane when the pilot somehow found a hole in the smoke and was able to find them, land on the lake, and extract them. (These two were not mentioned in the video.)

Four people paddled furiously in the strong winds, dense smoke, darkness, and two to three-foot waves. Unable to find a fire shelter deployment site on the shore and heavily forested islands, the four finally located a small, one-eighth acre barren island where they climbed inside their shelters as they were being pounded with burning embers.

You have to watch this video.

There is an excellent facilitated learning analysis about this incident.

We have written many articles about the Pagami Fire.

Escape from the Pagami Creek Fire

Pagami Creek fire, burns along lake shore
Pagami Creek fire burns along lake shore in undated photo by Superior National Forest

Outside Magazine has a riveting article about Greg and Julie Welch who had to flee in their kayaks as the massive wind-blown Pagami Creek Fire consumed tens of thousands of acres in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in Minnesota on a September day in 2011.

When lightning ignited the fire on August 18, the Superior National Forest made a decision to not suppress it, but to herd it around as necessary to keep it within a reasonable maximum management area while allowing natural processes to do their thing. After 12 days it had only grown to approximately 130 acres, and fire management officials may have thought things were going well — until September 12 when everything went to hell. Strong winds gusting at 35 mph or more spread the fire 16 miles to the east, ultimately burning over 92,000 acres by mid-October. HERE are some of the posts on Wildfire Today about the Pagami Creek Fire.

Greg Welch had been a photojournalist and often had taken photos of wildland firefighters as they suppressed fires, so when rangers told him about the Pagami Creek Fire, both he and the rangers thought their camping plans sounded reasonable, since the fire was miles away.

On the second day of their trip, the Welchs paddled their kayaks to another camping spot and set up their tent. Soon, and very unexpectedly, the fire was on them, and they hurriedly took some belongings to their kayaks and prepared to get out into the lake. Here is an excerpt from the Outside article:

…Julie was sitting in her kayak, watching her husband run down to the shore. Just as he came down the slope, the fire crested over the bank and roared just a few feet behind him. Greg threw the life jacket to Julie and told her to go while he strapped the last bags onto his kayak and dragged it to the water.

As Julie paddled out, everything suddenly went black as the fire pushed a thick cloud of soot and ash ahead of it. She couldn’t see Greg, so she screamed his name, but the noise of the fire was like standing next to a freight train. All she could see was thick smoke and burning trees falling in the water. For a few seconds, she thought Greg was lost, and that she was, too. She had no map, and no way to get back alone.

Then Greg appeared, paddling out of the smoke, a few feet away from her. But just as soon as she caught sight of him, the wind tossed her kayak into the air and flipped her into the cold water. By the time she surfaced, the boat had been blown far across the lake. Greg paddled toward her, but the wind was too strong—he couldn’t stop—and it blew him right past her. So he jumped in the water, holding his kayak and staying still, yelling for her to swim toward him. It took a few minutes for Julie to reach him, but together they clung to his boat while everything around them burned.

In addition to Greg and Julie Welch, eight U.S. Forest Service employees had near misses and entrapments on the fire. There is an  an excellent facilitated learning analysis about them being caught out in front of the rapidly spreading fire in canoes while trying to evacuate the recreating public from the area. At one point when they were fleeing the fire, the smoke was so thick they could not see the fronts of their canoes. Two people bailed out of a canoe to take refuge in the cold water, deploying a single fire shelter over their heads as they floated, suspended by their life jackets. Two others were flown out at the last minute by a float plane when the pilot somehow found a hole in the smoke and was able to find them, land on the lake, and extract them. Four people, after paddling furiously in the strong winds, dense smoke, and darkness, unable to find a fire shelter deployment site on the heavily forested islands, finally found a small, one-eighth acre barren island where they climbed inside their shelters as they were being pounded with burning embers.

Reviews of Pagami Creek Fire, and FLA for canoe entrapments

The U.S. Forest Service has released two additional reports about last year’s Pagami Creek Fire which was managed, rather than suppressed, for 25 days, until it ran 16 miles on September 12, eventually consuming over 92,000 acres of the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness in Minnesota. We also remind you of the facilitated learning analysis of the eight USFS employees caught out in front of the fire in canoes.

Policy review

The objective of one of the reviews was to determine if the major decisions made by the incident management teams and the staff of the Superior National Forest were consistent with official USFS policy. The review was conducted by one person, Tom Zimmerman, a program manager for the USFS’ Wildland Fire Management Research, Development, and Application Program in Boise. Mr. Zimmerman analyzed the decisions and compared them with 21 policy statements, manuals, directives, and Forest level planning documents. He concluded that the decisions “appear consistent with all levels of policy and process direction”.

Decisions review

There was another review, “looking at decisions made by line officers and Incident Management teams based on the Delegation of Authority from the Forest Supervisor”. The individuals involved in this review were Jim Thomas, Fire and Emergency Operation Specialist for the Eastern Region of the USFS, and Jim Bertelsen, a Superior NF employee acting in his capacity as President of local NFFE Union 2138. This review also found no fault with how the fire was managed, saying no information was overlooked that would have predicted the unprecedented movement of the fire on September 12.

While we don’t dispute the qualifications of Mr. Zimmerman and Mr. Thomas, a person has to wonder if these internal reviews, each conducted basically by one person, would have reached different conclusions had they been completed by a panel of neutral subject matter experts.

Entrapment and near-miss facilitated learning analysis

Pagami fire shelters
Deployed fire shelters on the Pagami fire. USFS photo from the facilitated learning analysis.

In addition to those two reviews, released earlier was an excellent facilitated learning analysis (FLA) of the near misses and entrapments of eight USFS employees who were caught out in front of the rapidly spreading fire in canoes while they were trying to evacuate the recreating public from the area. At one point when they were fleeing the fire, the smoke was so thick they could not see the fronts of their canoes. Two people left a canoe and took refuge in the cold water, deploying a single fire shelter over their heads as they floated, suspended by their life jackets. Two others were flown out at the last minute by a float plane when it somehow found a hole in the smoke and was able to find them and land on the lake. Four people, after paddling furiously in the strong winds, dense smoke, and darkness, unable to find a fire shelter deployment site on the heavily forested islands, finally found a small, one-eighth acre barren island where they climbed inside their shelters as they were being pounded with burning embers.

The very well done FLA is a must read. Someone should make a movie about this.

 

Thanks go out to Dick

Report released on Pagami Creek fire canoe overturn incident

File photo of canoe and float plane
File photo of canoe and floatplane. USFS photo

On October 16, 2011 during the Pagami Creek Fire on the Superior National Forest in northeast Minnesota an incident occurred that resulted in a motorized canoe being swamped in the middle of a large lake. As a result, three firefighters were totally immersed in cold water and exposed to hypothermic conditions for approximately 25 minutes until they were rescued by floatplane.

It occurred when a Division Supervisor and a Task Force leader were being ferried out to meet a Beaver (deHavilland) floatplane that was going to extract them.

Here is an excerpt from the facilitated learning analysis about the incident:
Continue reading “Report released on Pagami Creek fire canoe overturn incident”

A closer look at the Pagami Creek fire in the BWCAW

Pagami Creek fire September 11, 2011.
Pagami Creek fire September 11, 2011. Photo: Superior National Forest

The latest update on the Pagami Creek fire which has burned over 92,000 acres in Minnesota’s Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness was on October 22. At that time it was described as 93 percent contained and unstaffed. The federal government has spent $22.3 million dollars on suppression as of October 22.

Map Pagami Creek fire 0800 8-30-2011
Map of the Pagami Creek fire at 8:00 a.m. CT, August 30, 2011. Credit: Superior National Forest and Google Earth

When lightning ignited the fire on August 18, the Superior National Forest made a decision to not suppress it, but to herd it around as necessary to keep it within a reasonable maximum management area while allowing natural processes to do their thing. After 12 days it had only grown to approximately 130 acres, and fire management officials may have thought things were going well — until September 12 when everything went to hell. Strong winds gusting up to 35 mph spread the fire 16 miles to the east. HERE are some of the posts on Wildfire Today that mention the Pagami fire.

The StarTribune has a probing article written by Tony Kennedy that explores some of the decisions that were made during the early stages of the fire. It’s worth a read. Here is an excerpt:

===============================================================

Forest Service way off on BWCA fire projections

Records show the federal agency repeatedly underestimated the fire’s strength and volatility.

ELY, MINN. — A series of internal reports show that the U.S. Forest Service repeatedly underestimated the explosiveness of the Pagami Creek Fire during a critical 18-day stretch of late August and early September, allowing a half-acre burn to grow into a massive firestorm that left eight people fighting for their lives inside the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness.

[…]

“We felt like we were being very proactive,” said Mark Van Every, head of the Kawishiwi Ranger District in Ely, where the fire command is based. “It just happened faster and further than we expected.”

In the future, he said, the Forest Service might order faster and wider evacuations. “I will make those closure areas broader if I feel there is any potential at all that the fire could get there,” Van Every said. He said officials will also recalibrate the tools used to judge how fast a BWCA fire can move.

Meanwhile, two public reviews are underway. One is focused on an incident that endangered six crew members trapped by fire on Lake Insula. Two female crew members were forced to abandon their canoe while paddling in a lake channel that became choked by fire, Van Every said. Four others beached their canoes on an island and took cover under life-saving gear and later rescued their freezing crewmates from a nearby shore.

[…]

The half-acre burn didn’t budge much for seven days. The U.S. Drought Monitor, produced by the National Weather Service, showed the area to be in the first stage of drought, known as “abnormally dry.” But Van Every and Tim Sexton, a forest ranger based in Cook, Minn., said other indicators didn’t suggest rapid rates of spread. The fire’s early behavior supported that thesis, they said.

Then, on Aug. 26, with Sexton covering for a vacationing Van Every, the humidity level dipped abnormally to 18 percent and winds blew from the northwest. What had been a slow-creeping fire with flames 6 inches high in the morning picked up and ran in a narrow band to the southeast.

[…]

Strategic burn

The Sept. 4 decision reflected firefighters’ growing concern about dry forest conditions. “Weather forecasts indicate that September will experience dry, windy weather with occasional frosts (which will cause leaf fall and add to the hazardous fuel loading),” the WFDSS report said. In addition, drought conditions would worsen to the “severe” level by Sept. 6.

Local criticism of management of Pagami Creek fire

Pagami fire, Lake Polly 9-12-11 Hans Martin USGS
Pagami Creek fire, burning near Lake Polly, 9-12-2011. Photo: Hans Martin, USGS

When lightning ignited the Pagami Creek fire in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness on August 18, the Superior National Forest made a decision to not suppress it, but to herd it around as necessary to keep it within a reasonable maximum management area while allowing natural processes to do their thing. After 12 days the fire burning in the northeast corner of Minnesota had only grown to approximately 130 acres, and fire management officials may have thought things were going well — until September 12 when everything went to hell. Strong winds gusting up to 35 mph spread the fire 16 miles to the east. And now, $5.7 million and 93,000 acres later, you have the third largest fire in the history of Minnesota, meteorologists are tracking the smoke as it passes over China, and the local newspaper, the Ely Echo, has written a scathing editorial criticizing the decisions the U. S. Forest Service made.

I spent a lot of time on specialized “fire use” incident management teams managing these types of fires. It IS possible to manage a fire, herding it around, without fully suppressing it. But there are dozens of variables that have to be scrutinized by extremely knowledgeable, experienced, smart people to pull it off successfully. Something in the equation was missing on the Pagami Creek fire, and it just points out how difficult a limited suppression strategy can be to perfectly execute over a period of weeks or months. Sometimes you make good decisions or you are lucky, and the weather makes the team and the agency look good. Other times, mistakes in judgement are made and the weather blows them up into a hundred thousand black acres, and smoke columns are tracked across China.

Thanks go out to Chuck and Mary