Tag: potential

With huge amounts of rain and snow hammering California and Oregon, few people in those areas are thinking about wildfires this week.

But in spite of the rain delivered to the west coast on what meteorologists are calling an “atmospheric river”, on January 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for January through April. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.  If their predictions are correct, in February wildfire activity could begin to pick up in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and New Mexico, with Florida and Georgia getting busier in March and April.

Below are the highlights of their report. Following that are outlooks for February through April, temperature and precipitation forecasts, and the Drought Monitor.

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“To begin 2017 significant wildland fire potential will be normal throughout entirety of the United States, except for below normal in Puerto Rico. For the majority of the U.S. this normal condition means that significant wildland fires are unlikely and normal indicates an out of fire season condition.

Beginning in February the seasonal increase in wildland fire activity will begin in the southern plains where the combination of abundant fine fuels and the potential for dry and windy conditions will occasional come together to produce periods of significant fire activity impacting the Southwest, Rocky Mountain and Southern Areas.

After February predictions for significant fire activity become increasingly difficult. It is likely that the same fire potential will continue across the southern plains, but pregreen up fires will also become increasingly likely in a large portion of the U.S. These fires are difficult to predict and rely on short term localized significant weather events.

Also during this period it is likely that we will see the onset of fire activity in south central Alaska, where warmer and drier than typical winter conditions are occurring.

Significant fire potential will also increase to above normal in Florida and portions of Georgia. Long term drought remains the primary concern in this area and moisture deficits in this area are likely to lead to occasional fires that burn deep into the soil layer and are more difficult to suppress.”

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Continue reading “Wildfire potential, January through April”

On December 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for December through March. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

If their predictions are correct, the elevated wildfire danger that has plagued the southern states for weeks will be returning to normal. From January through March their analysis shows no areas with above normal wildfire potential.

Continue reading “Wildfire potential, December through March”

On September 1 the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center issued their Wildland Fire Potential Outlook for September through December, 2016. The data represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit. Below are highlights from the outlook.

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September is typically a month of significant change in fire conditions, especially across the northern tier of the United States. Days shorten, lessening available solar radiation to dry and heat fuels; longer nights are cooler with generally higher humidity. These conditions slowly reduce fire activity and typically end normal fire season activity throughout the month. This is expected to be the trend this season as well.

Throughout the northern portions of the Great Basin including portions of the Northwest, Northern Rockies and Rocky Mountain Areas above normal conditions will transition through the month to normal conditions and by the end of September normal conditions indicate minimal fire activity throughout this area. Occasional dry cold fronts during September and possibly October will present the potential for large fires on the landscape to grow rapidly; however, these conditions will be short in duration followed by opportunities for successful firefighting efforts. California will remain at above normal levels of fire activity throughout much of the state as dry conditions will continue and fall will bring the increased potential for offshore flow events.

In October, November and December diminishing activity in the northern tier will transition to heightened activity across the southern tier; especially in central and southernCalifornia and the Southeast. California is not expected to see any significant events that will alleviate long term drought and very dry fuels. This will come with enhanced potential for offshore flow, increasing the potential for very dry and windy conditions. The southeastern United States is a significant wildcard moving into the fall months.

Tropical systems the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico could provide substantial relief to some if not all of the area.

If this dry area remains, fall fire activity in the Southeast will be amplified and could become significant throughout the fall and winter. It is possible significant changes will occur, but the current conditions dictate elevated potential is likely.