Tag: potential

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued February 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center pointed out that widespread and in some areas heavy precipitation reduced fire potential across Southern California and the Southwest in the later part of January. They predict wildfire potential will begin increasing to higher than normal levels in the Southwest in March and by May will affect large portions of Texas, Arizona, and New Mexico.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“Below normal precipitation was observed across much of the United States (US), especially the contiguous US (CONUS), in January. Above normal temperatures were also prevalent with the strongest anomalies on the northern Plains and across the Great Lakes into the Northeast. Portions of the Plains extending into the Missouri Valley and Ozarks observed above normal precipitation. Precipitation during the last week of January helped ease precipitation and snowpack deficits across the West, but most areas remain below normal for this time of year.

“La Niña will continue to significantly affect the weather and climate patterns into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into spring with drying expected to increase across portions of the Plains and Southeast. However, drought improvement and possibly removal is forecast for portions of northwest California through Oregon.

“Climate outlooks suggest normal to below normal significant fire potential is likely for large portions of the Southeast, Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic into spring. However, an early and active start to the fire season is expected for the southern High Plains during late winter and continuing into the spring.

“Significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal during the spring across the Southwest and southern Plains due to background drought and forecast drier and warmer than normal conditions. Lower elevations in the Southwest are favored to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in March and April. Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas are forecast to have an active spring fire season before green-up in March and April and possibly beginning as early as February. Above normal significant fire potential is also likely to extend north into southern Kansas and southeast Colorado in March and April. By May, much of the Southwest and Florida and portions of the southern Great Basin are likely to have above normal significant fire potential.”

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The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued January 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains February through April, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing severe, extreme, or exceptional drought.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“La Niña will continue to significantly affect the weather and climate patterns through winter and into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through winter into spring with drying expected to increase across portions of the Plains and Southeast. Recent cool and wet weather in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic along with climate outlooks suggest normal to below normal significant fire potential is likely for large portions of the Southeast, Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic. However, an early and active start to the fire season is expected for the southern High Plains during late winter.

“Given the background drought and anticipated warmer and drier than normal conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains, significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal during the spring. Lower elevations in the Southwest are favored to have above normal significant fire potential beginning in March and April. Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and most of Texas are forecast to have an active spring fire season before green-up in March and April and possibly beginning as early as February. Above normal significant fire potential is also likely to extend north into southern Kansas and southeast Colorado in March and April.”

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Continue reading “Wildfire potential expected to be above normal in Southern Plains, February through April”

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued December 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will be higher than normal in the Southern Plains through March, 2021. This will include portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas. Most of the southwest one-quarter of the United States is currently experiencing abnormally dry or drought conditions.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“La Niña and current fuel conditions remain the principal drivers of significant fire potential into spring. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across southern California in December given the dry fuels and lack of forecast precipitation through early December. Wind events may also drive short duration large fire activity in portions of the Great Basin, Southwest, and northern California, especially at lower elevations.

“Warmer and drier than normal conditions are expected across the southern tier of the US this winter and into spring due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing. As a result, drought intensification and expansion across portions of the Plains, Southwest, southern California, Texas, and along the Gulf coast into Georgia are likely. Above normal significant fire potential is forecast in portions of the Southwest, southern and central Plains, and the Southern Area, especially near the Gulf and Atlantic coasts this winter into spring due to these warmer and drier conditions. Strong wind and low relative humidity (RH) events could occasionally increase significant fire potential in portions of the Great Basin as well.”

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Continue reading “Higher than normal wildfire potential predicted for the Southern Plains through March, 2021”

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued November 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts wildfire potential will remain above normal in parts of California through November. The potential in the Southern Plains is likely to be above normal December through February.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest into the winter with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Offshore wind events will continue to be a concern across northern California in November and likely into December for southern California. Significant fire potential is forecast to be above normal in downslope and offshore wind favored locations in California during November. The focus will shift to southern California in December as precipitation is likely to quell large fire concerns across northern California by then.

“Over the winter, the expected warming and drying trend across the southern tier of the United States due to La Niña and other large-scale climate forcing will likely result in above normal significant fire potential in portions of the southern Plains. Drought intensification and expansion from the southern Plains into southern California is likely. Strong wind and low relative humidity events could occasionally increase fire activity in portions of the Great Basin and Southwest this fall into winter as well. However, outside of the southern Plains, significant fire potential will likely remain near normal for the rest of the United States.”

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued October 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center predicts higher than average wildfire potential in October for portions of Oregon, Wyoming, Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and most of California.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“La Niña and current fuel conditions are the main drivers of significant fire potential through fall and into winter. Drought conditions are expected to continue for much of California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest through October with drying expected to increase across portions of the southern Plains and Southeast. Significant fire potential remains above normal for California due to the number of active large fires, near record dry fuels, and offshore wind events.

“Above normal significant fire potential is expected across much of California, Arizona, eastern Nevada, Utah, Colorado Rockies, and southern Wyoming in October. However, fire activity and potential will likely diminish across the West, except for portions of California, and remain normal over the Eastern and Southern Areas through November. Elevated periods of fire activity are likely in portions of Oklahoma and Texas and possibly in other locations in the Southern Area during fall into winter.”

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The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook issued September 1 by the Predictive Services section at the National Interagency Fire Center for September through December predicts that most of the forested areas of the western states, with the exception of Montana, will have above normal potential in September. In October and November that is expected to shift to California and the southeast.

The data from NIFC shown here represents the cumulative forecasts of the ten Geographic Area Predictive Services Units and the National Predictive Services Unit.

Below:

• An excerpt from the NIFC narrative report for the next several months;
• More of NIFC’s monthly graphical outlooks;
• NOAA’s three-month temperature and precipitation forecasts;
• Drought Monitor;
• Keetch-Byram Drought Index.

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“A continuation of peak season activity into September is expected across much of the West as drought conditions continue to take hold. Most western regions will experience areas of above normal significant large fire potential as shown on the maps to the left. By mid-month, however, the seasonal transition to fall will begin. Cold fronts brining winds but also precipitation will begin providing relief to the critically dry fuels. Fire activity will begin to diminish as fuel moistures begin to recover. As the days get shorter, overnight humidity recoveries will become greater. This will add further relief to fuels, especially the finer fuels.

“Following a brief pause in activity in California and a cessation of seasonal activity elsewhere across the West, large fire potential is expected to increase in October and November in wind prone areas across the state. The expectation of drier than average conditions and a higher probability of more frequent Foehn Wind events suggests that significant large fire potential will be elevated until winter sets in during December. The fall fire season across the East is expected to be near average but above average across much of the Southern Area due to drier than average conditions associated with a developing La Niña.”

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