Wildfire season 2015: very busy in some areas, slow in others

Chelan Fires
First Creek Fire at Lake Chelan, Washington, 2015. USFS photo by Kari Greer..

(Updated February 26, 2016 to include the final fire occurrence statistics for 2015.)

As the 2015 wildfire season draws to a close in most areas of the United States, preliminary numbers for acres burned show at first glance that it has been very busy. According to statistics from the National Interagency Fire Center, 10,125,149 acres burned in the country which is the most recorded during the last 55 years when accurate records have been kept.

But if we drill down into the statistics we find that more than half of those acres were in Alaska, with 5.1 million acres, more than quadruple their average of 1.2 million and the most acres burned since 2004 (6.6 million). Fire management in Alaska is very different from the rest of the country. Most of the huge state is very sparsely populated, making it possible for land managers to allow some large fires to burn virtually unchecked except where they might impact a structure or village. In those areas “point protection” is the key — establishing firelines, sprinkler systems, or burnout operations for relatively small areas, leaving the rest of the fire untouched.

In the other 49 states (we like to call them the “lower 49 states”) 5.0 million acres burned so far in 2015, about 700,000 less than the average of 5.7 million acres.

We don’t have the individual totals for each of the lower 49 states yet for this year but the impression is that firefighters were very busy in northern California, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and parts of Montana, while it was much slower than average for the other western states.

Concerns about the drought in California had many wildfire organizations sitting on pins and needles as the summer began. Los Angeles County usually contracts for two water scooping air tankers for their fall fire season which often has large fires pushed by very strong Santa Ana winds accompanied by single-digit humidities. Angst about the drought-desiccated fuels caused LA County to double their contracted air tanker fleet from two to four. While the northern part of the state had numerous large fires, the last half of the summer farther south was relatively benign, fire-wise.

Rain across much of the northwest in early September knocked out most of the large fires that had been chewing up acres in August. Even southern California received rain off and on in the fall. Orange County near Los Angeles got almost two inches of rain on September 15. Officials were dealing with flooding in Newport Beach and telling residents where they could obtain sandbags, something very rare in that area, but especially in September, the dry season.

Preliminary data indicates there have been 18 megafires this year

Okanogan Complex of fires
Structure protection on the Okanogan Complex of fires, August 21, 2015. InciWeb photo.

The National Interagency Fire Center has officially adopted the definition of a megafire (that we have been using for years) as a fire that burned at least 100,000 acres. Their preliminary data for 2015 shows 18 megafires —  so far. This includes complexes (counted as 1) and individual fires. According to NIFC this ties the record that was set in 2006, for most megafires in one fire season.

However their data for 2006 is different from the information we received from the U.S. Forest Service last May:

Fires larger than 100,000 acres (megafires)
2005 – 10
2006 – 15
2007 – 13
2008 – 5
2009 – 12
2010 – 3
2011 – 14
2012 – 14
2013 – 8
2014 – 4

100000+ acre fires megafire
This graphic is unusual, in that the megafires are in groups of three years. If you click on the image to see a larger version, you’ll see the three-year groups across the bottom.

While the number of megafires has increased since 1983, the number of wildland firefighters working for the five federal land management agencies has decreased by 17.5 percent in the last four years according to testimony by USFS Chief Thomas Tidwell before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in 2011 and 2015:

Federal wildland firefighters
2011 – 16,000
2015 – 13,200

New normal: more megafires

100000+ acre fires

(Click the image above to see a larger version.)

(Revised at 3:30 p.m. MDT, May 6, 2015)

The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee distributed this very interesting graphic on May 5 showing an “exponential” increase in the number of fires larger than 100,000 acres — what we call megafires. At first glance it appears to indicate that between 1983 and 1996 there were one or fewer megafires per year, but in the last 10 years there have been more than 30 each year. This interpretation is reinforced by the text on the left, “Number of wildfires, larger than 100,000 acres in size that burned each year“. (Emphasis, mine.)

However, if you click on the graphic to see a larger version, you may notice that the years across the bottom are in groups of three. So the number of megafires are for three year periods, not individual years.

We checked with Jennifer Jones, spokesperson with the U.S. Forest Service, who confirmed the following data for the previous 10 years found in the annual fire reports issued by the National Interagency Fire Center:

Fires larger than 100,000 acres (megafires)
2005 – 10
2006 – 15
2007 – 13
2008 – 5
2009 – 12
2010 – 3
2011 – 14
2012 – 14
2013 – 8
2014 – 4

Even taking the misleading graphic into account, this is very sobering data. The term “growing exponentially” is not an over statement. Prior to 1995 there was an average of less than one megafire per year. Between 2005 and 2014 the average increased to 9.8 each year.

While the number of megafires has increased by a factor of almost 10, the number of wildland firefighters working for the five federal land management agencies has decreased by 17.5 percent in the last four years according to testimony by USFS Chief Thomas Tidwell before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in 2011 and 2015:

Federal wildland firefighters
2011 – 16,000
2015 – 13,200

If more megafires and fewer firefighters is the new normal, should the land management agencies and landowners continue doing what was more or less working 20 years ago, and expect the same results they had then? Or, have conditions changed to the point where there needs to be a new assessment, implementation, or paradigm shift in:

  • mechanical fuel management,
  • prescribed fire,
  • the number and types of firefighting resources available,
  • management of encroachment into the wildland-urban interface,
  • technology that can make firefighters more efficient and safe,
  • firewise practices used by landowners,
  • reorganizing fire suppression in the federal government, and
  • state and federal funding for wildland fire.

The number of employees in federal land management agencies is declining

Number of employees land management agencies

The number of employees in the five major federal land management agencies has decreased by 6 to 33 percent over the last 11 years. According to data compiled by the Best Places to Work website, the decline in the size of the work force at the agencies is stunning — especially at the Bureau of Indian Affairs which has seen their workforce slashed by 33.5 percent. Frequently we hear from critics that government is growing, but it certainly isn’t at the outfits that employ the most wildland firefighters.

The actual number of firefighters in these five agencies is difficult to ascertain, but we have figures that were submitted in testimony before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in 2011 and 2013. In the two hearings, Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell said the number of firefighters in the U.S. Forest Service and the Department of Interior was 16,000 in 2011 and 13,000 in 2013. That is a 19 percent reduction in a two year period.

An example of this is at Everglades National Park, which is currently experiencing a “workforce realignment”. That’s National Park Service-speak for a major budget reduction. They are still figuring out the details, but it appears that their fire management staff will be “realigned” from about 35 to around 25 employees.

While the number of acres burned in the United States homeland is increasing, the number of wildland firefighters available to suppress them is doing the opposite. Firefighters are being laid off while we spend trillions of dollars on ill advised adventures on the other side of the world.

Acres burned, number of firefighters

We have more wildland fire statistics in an earlier article.

Job satisfaction at the land management agencies

The Best Places to Work website also has other interesting data. Every year the U.S. Office of Personnel Management conducts a Federal Employee Viewpoint Survey asking employees dozens of questions about their perceptions of what it is like to work at their agency. Below are some examples of the questions from the 2014 survey:

Examples of questions FEVS survey

A Best Places to Work index score is calculated based on responses to three questions in the OPM survey:

  • I recommend my organization as a good place to work.
  • Considering everything, how satisfied are you with your job?
  • Considering everything, how satisfied are you with your organization?

The 2014 survey index score for all of the major federal land management agencies declined except for the Forest Service, which showed a significant increase.

Best-places to work

To see the details of the survey results, visit these pages on the Best Places to Work website:

Thanks and a tip of the hat go out to Paula.